Research

Working papers

• Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Learning Outcomes? The Role of Classroom Environment and Household Educational Aspirations

[Draft available upon request]

Abstract: Conditional cash transfer programs have consistently had positive effects on school enrolment. However, their impact on other learning outcomes, particularly cognitive development, remains mixed, often reflecting lower-bound estimates due to the enrolment of more low-scoring students. This study employs a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach to evaluate a policy in Vietnam, leveraging a rich survey dataset that includes cognitive scores for children who drop out. The analysis finds no evidence of positive learning effects at either the primary or lower secondary level. On the school side, the study finds substantial pressure on class resources post-policy implementation, as reflected in larger class sizes and higher student-teacher ratios. On the household side, the study finds no impact on parental or children’s educational aspirations, which may help explain the lack of improvement in cognitive scores. These findings suggest that when declines in the classroom environment are not counterbalanced by increased motivation among parents and children, conditional cash transfer programs may not effectively translate higher enrolment into better learning outcomes.

Presented at: the 2025 Australasian Development Economics Association (ADEA) Conference

• Effects of early-life Shocks on Children’s Physical and Cognitive Development (with Pushkar Maitra)

[Draft available upon request]

Abstract: Using longitudinal data from Vietnam, this paper examines how early-life shocks affect child outcomes from infancy through adolescence. Idiosyncratic (household- specific) shocks experienced in utero or during the first year of life have large and persistent negative effects on the physical and cognitive development of children, with deficits still observable at ages 12 and 15. In contrast, rainfall shocks have mixed effects. Increasing labor supply is the most common and effective coping strategy, mitigating both immediate and long-term consequences of idiosyncratic shocks. Our findings underscore the importance of protecting households during the early stages of child development.

Presented at: Monash Environmental/Agricultural Workshop, Curtin Economics Seminar, ITT Bombay Applied Economics Seminar, the 2026 Australasian Development Economics Workshop (ADEW), the 2026 Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society (AMES), the 2026 Bath-Cornell Workshop, the 2026 Econometric Society Australasia Meeting (ESAM)

• Temperature Shocks and Labor Allocation: Evidence from a Tropical Developing Country

[Draft available upon request]

Abstract: Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme temperature days, raising questions about how workers in developing countries adapt. This paper examines how short-run temperature shocks shape labor force participation and sectoral allocation in Vietnam, a tropical country. Using nearly a decade of household survey and weather data, and exploiting variation in temperature relative to district-specific distributions, I show that both hot days and cold days reduce working hours in agriculture. While hot days do not induce a corresponding increase in hours worked in other sectors, resulting in a decline in total working hours, cold days shift the sectoral composition from agriculture to informal non-agriculture along both the extensive margin (sectoral participation) and intensive margin (working hours), thereby leaving total working hours unchanged.

Presented at: the 2026 Monash Environmental Economics Workshop (MEEW)