As North Korea continues to move into the modern era and the Jangmadang Generation ages, making up a larger and more economically and politically active population, North Korea is left at a crossroads with several possible paths forward. The Kim regime has to decide how they want to move forward and how they will handle the continuing rise of marketization and foreign media in North Korea. Currently, I see three main paths moving forward: attempting to squash all marketization and outside influence through stricter laws and harsher punishments, accepting marketization into North Korea, allowing it to continue to grow and change North Korean society, or revolution by the North Korean people. Some of these options are more realistic and possible than others.
Out of the three options that I outlined above, revolution is the least likely to happen. In modern times, many North Koreans have access to the outside world and rely on information about foreign aid and foreign news as a means of survival. More North Koreans are becoming aware of what life is like outside of North Korea and that countries like South Korea experience greater economic and personal freedoms. Additionally, many North Koreans now also have access to phones, making mass communication and self-organization by citizens possible for the first time in North Korean history. That being said, unless there is some form of catalyst, such as an even harsher crackdown on North Korean personal and economic liberties, especially on jangmadangs and small-scale capitalism, since that is how the overwhelming majority of North Koreans make a livelihood and survive. So, while possible, the likelihood of a revolution or attempts to overthrow the Kim regime is slim and unlikely. However, looking at the other two options, both are realistic potential paths forward.
In 2009, with the North Korean won currency reform, Kim Jong Il tried and failed to stop the rise of jangmadangs and to wipe out the private markets in North Korea. Kim Jong Un, while more willing to allow Jangmadangs and capitalism to exist in North Korea, has exhibited some similar behaviors to Kim Jong-Il with the 2020 Reactionary Ideology and Culture Rejection Law that instituted harsher punishments for those found to be consuming foreign media. This suggests that Kim Jong Un, while more willing to accept jangmadangs and marketization, still views them, and the fact that they allow for the everyday North Korean to access outside media, as a threat to him and his regime. This attitude, along with other policies from Kim Jong-Un in recent years, suggests that Kim Jong-Un may try to tighten the leash on North Koreans, further restricting their freedoms by enacting stricter and harsher laws and punishments on the North Korean people in an attempt to regain complete control over the populace. However, I think that a complete crackdown and outlawing of jangmadangs and marketization is unlikely due to the devastating economic impacts it would have on the country. The 2009 currency reform had widespread and devastating impacts on the North Korean population, and any attempts to constrain jangmadangs would have an even more devastating impact as they make up the vast majority of the North Korean economy. Also, North Korea, like much of Asia, is dealing with an aging and shrinking population. All of these concerns mean that there is a limit to what the Kim regime can do and how harshly it can crack down on the populace before it will lead to widespread backlash, and they are unable to successfully control the population and deal with the ever-shrinking population.
The third option, which I think is the most realistic, is the continuation of what we see today, which is the slow grassroots societal changes potentially leading to a similar system as seen in China. As outlined in my research, since the 1990s famine and the birth of jangmadangs, North Korean society has been experiencing a steady shift in how North Koreans live their daily lives and view the Kim regime. This is most likely what will continue to happen in North Korea. As I mentioned, jangmadangs and the exposure to foreign media have completely changed North Korean society, and while the Kim regime continues to rule, they are no longer fully in control, and even with their recent crackdown on foreign media and foreign language terms, the influence and importance of foreign media continues to rise. The Kim regime's attempts to stop the rise of marketization and increase in capitalism have all failed to stop this movement. Based on what is being seen in North Korea and the stories of North Korean defectors, the change will mostly continue, as these policies have done little to deter North Koreans. And while it may not lead to a reunification with South Korea, I see these continued changes leading to the Kim regime being forced to make certain changes in order to maintain control.
One approach I see potentially happening is a similar approach to modernizing to what was seen in the People’s Republic of China after Mao Ze Dong’s death and the arrest of the Gang of Four. The People’s Republic of China began as a strict communist society under Mao’s control. There were attempts to do collective farming on a large scale during the Great Leap Forward. While under Mao and his policies, China suffered from slow economic growth, and millions died under the oppressive regime due to various policies, such as the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. In the 1980s and into the 1990s, after Mao died and Deng Xiaoping took control, China began rapidly developing through industrialization. The Chinese Communist Party was able to maintain control while also rapidly modernizing through a series of aggressive policies called the Four Modernizations. The Four Modernizations were technology, agriculture, industry, and defense. Under this new plan, Chinese citizens were now allowed to own and run businesses, the Chinese Communist Party invested heavily in industry, particularly manufacturing, opened trade to the world, and special economic zones in key cities were established, all while the Chinese Communist Party maintained strict political control1.
This switch from communism to capitalism in China allowed for the Chinese Communist Party to maintain strict control of the economy, maintain control over China in a one-party system, and to continue to censor certain ideas and beliefs among the populace. Capitalism is already present and a major part of North Korean society, and if the Kim regime leans into it, encouraging industrialization and foreign investment, it would allow for them to maintain better control and improve the lives of the average North Korean. Following a similar plan to China, through opening up in a controlled manner and state investment in manufacturing, trade, and local enterprises, the Kim Regime would be able to maintain strict political and social control while also gaining more economic control by bringing jangmadangs and other economic sectors completely under the authorities' control. Refusal to embrace capitalism in a manner similar to China does not stop its prevalence in North Korea and only gives more control to smugglers and outside powers.
No matter what happens with the Kim regime, the societal, economic, and political impacts of jangmadangs cannot be undone and will continue no matter what the Kim regime does. And while the chances of North Korea fully opening or reuniting with South Korea are unlikely, North Korea cannot continue in its current state, and slow change will most likely continue in the foreseeable future.
1.(Keo, Crossing the river by feeling the stones: Deng Xiaoping in the making of Modern China 2023)