NIJAT GULIYEV
City University of New York Email: nguliyev@gradcenter.cuny.edu
365 Fifth Avenue, New York Phone: +19294858953
NY, USA, 10016 Website: Guliyev
EDUCATION
PhD, Econometrics and Quantitative Economics, The Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY), New York, 2020 - 2026 (Expected)
MA, Economics, International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi Georgia, 2015 - 2017
MS, Organization and management of Industry, Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Baku Azerbaijan, 2011 - 2013
BS, Engineering Economics, Azerbaijan State Oil Academy, Baku Azerbaijan, 2005 - 2009
RESEARCH INTERESTS
My main research interests lie in Macroeconomics, Financial Economics, and Applied Econometrics. I am also interested in developments in Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, particularly applications of Causal Machine Learning in Economics.
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
The Graduate Center of CUNY, New York, US
Doctoral Student, Economics Department, 2020 - present
Studied the nonlinear relationship between exchange rate volatility, foreign reserves, and economic growth using panel data for developed and developing economies. Applied dynamic panel and dynamic panel threshold models alongside causal Machine Learning methods such as Double Machine Learning (DML) to capture heterogeneity and nonlinear effects. During this period wrote three dissertation chapters, three projects, developed and taught three undergraduate and one graduate courses – teaching more than 500 students in total, and served as a member of the admission committee and the curriculum committee of the Department
The Graduate Center of CUNY, New York, US
Research Assistant to Prof. Vijverberg, Economics Department, 2021 - 2022
Assisted in simulation-based research on panel data inference and standard error estimation under unobserved cluster effects. Developed, optimized, and executed Monte Carlo simulations in R to evaluate the performance of statistical tests, organized, and reported the results.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan.
Economist, Macroeconomic Research Department, 2017 - 2021
Conducted macroeconomic research on the transmission of economic shocks, and forecasting macroeconomic variables using advanced econometric and time series models. Wrote one sole-authored and one co-authored working paper, built one ARDL, two SVAR, and one FAVAR model. Improved, updated, and maintained the DSGE model used for policy analysis and forecasting.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching
ECON 7215 Money and Financial Markets, Graduate course, Brooklyn College of CUNY, New York, US, since Spring 2025, average class size 25 students Syllabus
ECO 4000 Statistical Analysis for Economics and Finance, Baruch College of CUNY, New York, US, since Fall 2022, average class size 75 students, Syllabus
STA 2000 Business Statistics, Baruch College of CUNY, New York, US, 2022-2024 (4 semesters), average class size 75 students, Syllabus
ECON 2200 Elementary Microeconomics, Brooklyn College of CUNY, New York, US, since Spring 2026, average class size 35 students, Syllabus
ECON 3410 Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, Brooklyn College of CUNY, New York, US, since Spring 2024, average class size 25 students, Syllabus
FIN 470 International Finance, Khazar University, Baku Azerbaijan, 2017-2020 (5 semesters), average class size 30, Syllabus
Teaching Assistant
ECON-GA 1101 Applied Statistics and Econometrics, Graduate course, New York University, New York, US, since Fall 2023. Teaching Assistant for Prof. Elena Goldman
Math for Economists, International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi Georgia, Fall 2016, Teaching Assistant for Prof. Tornike Kadeishvili
Microeconomics, International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi Georgia, Spring 2017, Teaching Assistant for Prof. Florian Bierman.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
The Central Bank of The Republic of Azerbaijan, Baku, Azerbaijan
Economist, Macroeconomic Research Department, Oct 2017 - Aug 2021
Developed and maintained macro-financial models to analyze economic trends and forecast key indicators such as inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, and the balance of payments. Contributed to Monetary Policy Committee reports by analyzing developments in domestic real and fiscal sectors, as well as balance of payments, and by monitoring the monetary decisions of 80 central banks. As a member of a team of 15 economists, contributed to the preparation of detailed reports and assessments for senior management of the bank. Mentored one intern in the department during the summer internship. During this period, also developed and taught two undergraduate courses, teaching more than 150 students in total.
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), Baku Azerbaijan
Engineer Economist, June 2013 - Oct 2015
Analyzed time data and used statistical methods to develop labor norms to increase production efficiency. Led a team auditing SOCAR’s plants and fields nationwide, collecting key data on output and time use. Collaborated with departments across the plants to ensure the effective implementation of labor norms and process improvements. As a member of a business model improvement team of 20 experts, designed and implemented initiatives to improve business operations.
Road Bridge Construction Company, Baku, Azerbaijan
Specialist, Production Department, May 2011 – June 2013
Prepared detailed cost estimate documents and ensured alignment between planned and actual project expenditures. Monitored construction budgets and analyzed cost variances to maintain financial efficiency. Conducted regular site visits nationwide to audit project progress and verify consistency with the planned schedule and scope. Optimized construction costs by improving resource utilization. Coordinated and prepared tender and bid documentation in compliance with company and client requirements.
ACADEMIC SERVICE
The Graduate Center, CUNY
Member, Admissions Committee, Department of Economics (2025–Present)
Member, Curriculum Committee, Department of Economics (2023–2025)
Member, Election Committee, Department of Economics (2022–2023)
FELLOWSHIPS, AWARDS
Graduate Center Fellowship, City University of New York, New York, US, 2021-2026
Teaching Fellowship: Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education Economics Institute. Prague, Czech Republic, August 2017
Full Scholarship, International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi Georgia, 2015-2017
Presidential Scholarship of Achievement (granted to less than 1% of students countrywide), Ministry of Education of Azerbaijan, Baku Azerbaijan, 2005 – 2009
CONTINUED LEARNING
Financial Programming and Policies Seminar, IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development and Joint Vienna Institute. Vienna Austria, April 2019
Bilateral Assistance and Capacity Building for Central Banks Conference, Geneva Graduate Institute. Geneva, Switzerland, June 2018
SKILLS
Programming: STATA, R, Python, SQL, EViews, MATLAB (working knowledge), C++ (working knowledge)
Analytical & Research Skills: Macroeconomic modelling, Time-series analysis, Econometric modelling, Causal inference, Panel data Econometrics, Machine Learning and Predictive Modeling, Economic Research,
Language: English (fluent), Turkish (working proficiency), Russian (working proficiency)
PAPERS & WORK IN PROGRESS
Job market paper: Reserve management, exchange rates, and short-term GDP dynamics. Empirical Investigation with Quarterly Dynamic Panel.
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the non-linear relationship between exchange rate volatility, foreign reserves, and economic growth. Applying a dynamic panel estimation model on a quarterly data covering sixty developed and developing countries from 1997 to 2019, we find significant non-linear relationships among these macroeconomic variables. Our findings show that exchange rate volatility and depreciation generally exert negative effects on growth, with foreign reserves playing an important mitigating role. We also show that the sign and significance of these interactions vary across country groups, highlighting the importance of accounting for group-specific heterogeneity. This study contributes to the literature by offering detailed insights into the stabilizing role of foreign reserves and challenging the conventional wisdom regarding exchange rate depreciation. The results highlight the limitations of models that pool the countries together, and advocate for tailored policy approaches based on country-specific dynamics.
Dissertation chapters
Non-linear Dynamics of Exchange Rates, Reserves, and Growth: The Role of Frequency and Country Heterogeneity.
Nonlinearities in exchange rate, reserves, and economic growth relationship. ML approach. Dissertation chapter.
Working papers
Modeling Azerbaijan’s Inflation and Output Using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model (coauthored). Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department Working Paper Series, Geneva, Switzerland, January 2020. Link.
The Effect of External Shock on Azerbaijan Economy, The Central Bank of Azerbaijan, working paper series, 2018. Link.