Stream F - Agriculture Policy Reforms and Foresight - Production, Value Chains & Market
20 May 2021
Virtual | East Africa Time (GMT+3)
11:00 - 12:30
The presentation analyzes the contribution of the CARD policy to rice production and forecasts the local rice supply and demand for a better understanding of the policies needed to attain rice self-sufficiency by 2030. A combination of the autoregressive integrated moving average method and counterfactual approach was adopted using rice statistical data fraom 23 countries in SSA. The rice production showed a continuous increase since 1996. However, the production increase was higher over the last decade (2008-2018) in the CARD participating countries compare to the decade of 1996-2007. The achievement varied among regions and countries during the CARD period. West Africa showed an increase of 143% (7.8 to 19.0 MT); Central/Southern Africa, 54% (0.4 to 0.7 MT); and East Africa, 50% (5.5 to 8.2 MT). The contribution of CARD to paddy rice production in 2018 was 10.2 million ton, equivalent to 74% of target. This resulted from the increasing of area and yield by 23% and 19%, respectively. However, yield growth rate was not sustainable in almost two-third of countries. Investments on supply-push factors such as fertilizer and irrigation development, which was the focus in the past, have less effect on the rice production. Scenario showed that with an annual increase in yield of 3% and area of 5.5% (increase of approximately 20% of yield and area growth rates compared to the baseline) would result in a production equivalent to 49.2 million tons of milled rice and would help to achieve self-sufficiency by 2030. We conclude that sustainable investments on demand-pull factors such as private-led modern milling sector and contract farming development should be prioritized for achieving rice self-sufficiency in SSA.
About the presenter
Thanks to comparative advantage, Asian countries hosting big deltas have become major rice exporters, contributing to food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) through massive Asian rice imports. Due to urbanization and dietary shift, rice consumption is growing fast in SSA and currently 40% is met through imports. Policy makers in 32 SSA countries are currently updating their National Rice Development Strategies (NRDS) under the Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD), which aims at doubling rice production by 2030. In this presentation, I provide evidence from 15 years of policy research to argue that increasing rice production requires concomitant investment in rice value chain upgrading. SSA countries can be segmented in three groups based on their exposure to rice imports and rice cultural heritage. Group 1 countries are coastal countries with long exposure to rice imports to the extent that consumers in major urban consumption poles have developed dominant preferences for imported rice. Group 2 countries are coastal countries with dominant consumer preferences for local rice thanks to exposure to rice cultural heritage (i.e., as a result of 3000 year old rice domestication along Niger river in West Africa and more recent Indianization in East Africa). The latter endows these rice sectors with a “comparative advantage in demand” relative to Group 1, where local rice is typically perceived as being inferior to imported rice. Group 3 represents landlocked countries that are somewhat physically shielded from the world market and where consumer preferences tend to favor local over imported rice. In the first set of NRDS, most investments were focused on increasing productivity of national rice sectors. I argue that Group 1 will have to invest more in rice value chain upgrading to help local rice compete quality-wise with imports before investments in productivity will pay off. I provide ample evidence from market experiments how upgrading of rice quality can help local rice in gaining market access in import-biased urban markets. The primary strategy in Group 2 and Group 3 is to increase productivity and maintain comparative advantage in demand through concomitant value chain upgrading. An assessment of the state of rice value chain upgrading in 15 countries in West Africa in 2019 indicates that upgrading is highly heterogeneous among countries. Group 1 and Group 3 countries have invested most in rice value chain upgrading, while Group 2 countries are lagging behind. Heterogeneity in upgrading can be explained for 89% through two drivers and an enabling factor: (i) supply, (ii) import bill, and (iii) limited comparative advantage in demand. Geographical proximity to rice cultural heritage seems to slow down investment in rice value chain upgrading. Although the progress in Group 1 and Group 3 countries is consistent with our earlier recommendations and encouraging, the low investment levels in rice value chain upgrading in Group 3 countries warrants attention. Policy makers can use this segmentation to define an optimal strategy for crowding-in of private investment in rice value chain upgrading in their respective countries, based on the successful examples of Nigeria and Senegal.
About the presenter
Dr. Matty Demont is a European bioscience engineer specialized in behavioral economics of food system transformation. He is currently Research Leader of Markets, Consumers and Nutrition at the CGIAR International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Philippines (2013–present) and also serves as an Adjunct Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Environmental Science and Management (2015–present) and Editorial Board member of Global Food Security (2014–present). He previously pioneered policy research on the modernization of African rice value chains at the Africa Rice Center (2007–2013). He has more than 20 years of experience leading research and engaging with policymakers on food system transformation throughout Europe, Africa, and Asia. He acquired vast field experience through numerous surveys, value chain analyses, and behavioral experiments with consumers, farmers, food companies, and technology developers around the world. In 2012, his work was awarded the Louis Malassis International Scientific Prize by Agropolis Fondation, France, and the T.W. Schultz Award by the International Association of Agricultural Economists. He conducted his PhD and postdoctoral research on European biotechnology policy at KU Leuven, Belgium (1999–2007). He has published widely in refereed journals, books, and magazines and is a regular speaker at international conferences.
14:30 - 16:00
The presentation covers the results of qualitative research on an assessment of the business models of small and medium rice millers covering finance; procurement; marketing; management; employment; food safety and nutrition with implications for integrated policy making.
About the presenter
Rice has played a vital role to cater the energy needs of world’s population, predominantly in Asia and its consumption is growing in Africa since 1973 at 6% annually. The preference of milled rice consumption in Africa over the course grain and tubers is significantly ensuring Africa’s food security, primarily due to reduced cooking time and higher palatability. African rice consumer’s demand milled rice in the form of premium quality which is long slender, translucent and aromatic rice varieties. Due to increased triple-burden nutrition challenges such as zero hunger, malnutrition (lack of micronutrients) and growing obesity with increased incidences of diabetes, it is important to provide diet based nutrition solution within rice to address human health and to address future nutritional security. While there is a clear value established between consumption of whole grain (brown/pigmented rice) and human health to address triple burden nutrition challenges, consumers till today widely prefer milled rice consumption which is rich in calorie and lacks nutrients. While breeding rice varieties for Africa it is important to consider the natural diversity/genetic variation for various nutritional properties and reintroduce the missing traits into the main breeding pool to develop rice varieties meeting future food and nutritional security issues. In this context we have systematically reviewed the myths and truth and developed holistic strategies to develop varieties which cater the energy and nutritional need of human health of African continent. The key strategic shift we need is (a) to tweak the starch quality to lower glycemic index of rice without altering texture, (b) promote rare nutritious rice lines, possessing higher antioxidant properties due to elevated flavonoids in the whole grain (red) rice shown to exhibit chemo-preventive properties in cancer cell lines, (c) enhancing micronutrients through biofortification and fortification of milled and brown rice to enhance the nutritional density and to improve the cooking properties of brown rice and prevent rancidity. These findings reinforce the importance of brown/pigmented rice as a nutritionally dense staple foodstuff, while providing genetic links to pivotal metabolites as indispensable targets of human nutrition.
About the presenter