Math Activity One

Let's learn about THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

Two opponents each have a marked bone and an unmarked bone hidden in their hands.

The shooter wins the bones if s/he can guess where both unmarked bones are hidden.

READY FOR SOME MATH???? (Scroll Down!)

QUESTION ONE: What is the probability that the shooter will find where those two unmarked bones are hiding?

QUESTION TWO: What is the probability that the shooter will find two marked bones instead?

QUESTION THREE: What is the probability that the shooter will find one marked bone and one unmarked bone?

QUESTION FOUR: If this same event is done twenty times, according to rules of probability, how many times will the shooter will find where those two unmarked bones are?

QUESTION 1-3

Here are the possible out comes. Note: P1 = player 1 P2= player 2 M=Marked U=Unmarked

P1 P2

M-------M Looking at the diagram on the left. You can see there are 4 possible outcomes.

M-------U

U------- M

U--------U

Q1: You can see that in only one of these possible outcomes both unmarked bones are chosen. Therefore, there is a one in four chance that the shooter will find two unmarked bones. The probability is 1/4.

Q2: You can see that in only one of these possible outcomes both marked bones are chosen. Therefore, there is a one in four chance that the shooter will find two marked bones. The probability is 1/4.

Q3: You can see that in two of these possible outcomes an unmarked and a marked bone are chosen. Therefore, there is a two in four (or) one in two chance the shooter will find an unmarked and a marked boje. The probability is 1/2.

Q4: If the probability of winning (finding both unmarked bones) is 1 in 4. That means that if this event is repeated twenty times. The probability is that the shooter will win 5 times.

1/4 X 20= 5

Summary of learning.

In math activity one, we have learned to determine THEORETICAL PROBABILITY, or the likelihood an event will occur randomly based on the number of possible favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. In our example, there is one possible favorable outcome (finding both unmarked bones) out of a total of four possible outcomes. Thus, the theoretical probability is 1/4.

For further practice with theoretical probability, click TEACHERS RESOURCES in the menu bar and look for THEORETICAL PROBABILITY practice worksheet. Using this worksheet, you will determine the likelihood of events occurring or theoretical probabilities by...

1) Listing and Counting all possible outcomes. The number will be n in the equation.

2) Listing and Counting the number of favorable outcomes. The number will be f in the equation.

3) Calculate 'theoretical probability'= f/n (or f divided by n )