Through this project, we analyzed various dimensions of routes 19, 20 and 51A. We believed looking at granular-level data such as percentage of seniors, smartphone access, ridership, and community anchor points would help us pinpoint the bus line that would be the best candidate to receive real-time information displays. Based on our findings, we believe line 20 is the best candidate for real-time information displays, for the following reasons:
1) Lower frequency: Line 20 has frequencies of between 16 to 30 minutes. These are significantly longer headways than the 51A at every 10 to 15 minutes. Even though the 51A experiences slightly more delays than the 20, its shorter headways help compensate for this.
2) Delay-prone: Line 20's on-time arrival performance, measured by delays exceeding 5 minutes, is often below AC Transit's 72% on-time arrival threshold, according to monthly on-time performance data. This means it is more delay-prone than line 19. Once again, even though the 51A has similar on-time performance, its shorter headways allow it to have more frequent service even accounting for delays.
3) Runs through areas with lower transit use: Census tracts that the line 20 runs through in Alameda report lower transit use, so the addition of real-time displays could help boost ridership by making the service more convenient and appealing to people who may not be able to or comfortable driving.
4) Serves areas with relatively lower smartphone access: Line 20 runs through parts of Alameda and the Dimond District that have lower smartphone access (between 84 and 91 percent and 76 and 91 percent) compared to the other two lines. Without smartphones, riders are likely to be unable to check apps such as Google Maps or Transit that could inform them when the next bus is coming.
5) Far from community anchor destinations: Line 20's stops in Alameda are located far away from community anchor destinations, particularly for healthcare and elderly care. The line also runs through parts of Southern Alameda island and in the Dimond District at its eastern terminus, areas with a higher percentage of seniors. Installing real-time information displays could make the journey to and from these facilities easier, especially for individuals or families who may lack or have limited access to private vehicles.
In conclusion, we believe that line 20 would benefit the most from real-time information displays at some of their bus stops. Although line 20 experiences less delays than the 51A, line 20’s lower frequencies exacerbate the negative effect of such delays on riders as riders must wait even longer periods of time to board than they likely would for the other lines. Additionally, though it experiences less delays than the 51A, line 20 experiences more delays compared to line 19, and its on-time performance falls below AC Transit’s established goal. Since Line 20 runs through areas with less transit ridership and smartphone access, the addition of real-time information displays along line 20’s stops could make riding transit more attractive and convenient for folks in these areas and boost ridership for the line. Line 20’s stops are also located far away from healthcare and elderly care facilities, and providing real-time information along this line could make the journey to and from these destinations easier for those who rely on transit to reach these facilities.
We chose to answer our research question through an analysis of several performance and accessibility shortcomings that we believed the addition of real-time information displays could address. Due to its use of both publicly available Census and community anchor destination data as well as operational data provided by AC Transit, we believe that our analysis thoroughly answers the research question in the context of these three AC Transit bus lines. Furthermore, we believe that our methodology may be applied to similar analyses by other transit agencies to establish prioritization plans for installing real-time information displays or other transit station infrastructure.
Header image from Flickr: Sullivan, P. AC Transit 1213 HT. CC BY-ND 2.0