How to Use My Model

After finding out the most valuable variables using multiple regression analysis, I created an equation in google sheets:

F(x)= -29.610043-0.007687*(B2)-0.009711*(B3)-0.003332*(B4)+0.011401*(B5)+0.012542*(B6)+0.6764*(B7)-0.083224*(B8)+0.042849*(B9)+2.191215*(B10)-0.924352*(B11)

1. To use the above equation, you should open the Google sheet in a new tab

2. Collect the data for the upcoming game for each variable(I recommend using Vegas Insider, Pro Football Reference, and Team Rankings to get data for each variable)

   1. Make sure the number is exact and the data you collect has the correct mathematical symbol ( negative or positive) for the money lines and odds

3. Put the correct number in each cell in the Google sheet and the percentages for the Home Winning Probability and Away Winning Probability will update automatically

4. The Home team's winning probability is in cell D4 and the Away team's winning probability is in cell E2.

5. You should convert these two numbers to a percentage. For example, .546 would be 54.6%. With this knowledge, you can choose whether or not to bet on the game

6. If the home-winning percentage is greater than .6(60%) or less than .4(40%) I would advise you to bet a lower amount of money on that specific game because it is essentially a 50/50 and you statistically have a higher chance of losing money

Below, is a description of each significant coefficient to help further your understanding of how the model works:

Away Moneyline: This is a type of bet in which you wager on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread. The Away Moneyline is the odds associated with betting on the away team to win the game. 

Home Moneyline: This is similar to the Away Moneyline, except it represents the odds associated with betting on the home team to win the game outright. 

Over Odds: This refers to the odds associated with betting on the total points scored in the game to be over the given over/under line set by the sportsbook. 

Average Away Yards: This is the average total number of yards gained by the away team during the game. 

Average Away Yards Allowed: This is the average total number of yards allowed by the away team's defense during the game. 

Home Points: This is the average total number of points scored by the home team during the game. 

Home Yards: This is the average total number of yards gained by the home team during the game. 

Home Yards Allowed: This is the average total number of yards allowed by the home team's defense during the game. 

Home Yards Per Point: This is a statistic that shows how many yards the home team gains on average for every point scored. It is calculated by dividing the total number of yards gained by the home team by the total number of points scored. 

Home Yards Allowed Per Point: This is a statistic that shows how many yards the home team's defense allows on average for every point scored against them. It is calculated by dividing the total number of yards allowed by the home team's defense by the total number of points scored against them.