The Weekly Key

The Weekly Key: What Move-Up Buyers Should Watch (October 7th 2025)

Hey y’all — it’s Tanya checking in. The market’s doing a little dance lately, and if you’re thinking about trading up, now’s a moment to pay attention. Here’s what’s moving and what I’m watching.

🔍 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates ticked up again
   The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.34% this week, up from ~6.30% last week. Freddie Mac+3Freddie Mac+3Freddie Mac+3
   The 15-year fixed also nudged up to 5.55%, from 5.49%. Freddie Mac
   
   

2. Buyer demand is soft / cautious
   The MBA’s applications measure hasn’t released a big leap recently; the trend shows mortgage application volume being muted, especially on the purchase side. Mortgage News Daily+2MBA+2
   Refi activity is more responsive to small rate moves, so that’s where we often see more action. Mortgage News Daily
   
   

3. Inventory is loosening (gradually)
   MetroTex’s housing reports indicate some markets in Texas are seeing inventory rise faster than buyer traffic. MetroTex
   TRERC’s “housing activity” page shows that across Texas, listing counts are increasing (though detailed by county is lagged). Texas Real Estate Research Center
   
   

4. Prices holding, but pressure on upside
   Home prices remain fairly stable, but growth is cooling. Sellers in tougher comps or fringe neighborhoods may feel more pressure to negotiate.
   The rate increase this week (though modest) reminds us that affordability is still tight for many buyers.
   
   

5. More breathing room with days on market
   With inventory up a bit and buyer urgency softer, homes are staying listed just a bit longer on average. That gives you time to be picky and strategic rather than rushed.
   
   

🛠 What I’m Watching & What You Should Do

• Get preapproved ASAP — when motivation and timing align, you want that mortgage ready to go.
  
  

• Push harder on terms — with rates rising, closing costs, repairs, credits, and concessions matter more than ever.
  
  

• Lean into comps & data — more inventory = more comparable sales to negotiate against.
  
  

• Be cautious of rate bumps — the upward move this week reminds us that rates aren’t freefalling downward.
  
  

• Watch new listings in your target neighborhoods — often your best moves come when sellers are first testing the market.
  
  

The Weekly Key: Denton County Buyers, What You Should Watch 

(Sep 30, 2025)

Hey there — Tanya here, checking in as we roll into October. If you’ve been wondering “Is now a good time to make my move?”, this week’s numbers offer some encouragement. The landscape is shifting—and that’s good news for move‑up buyers who want options and negotiating room.

🔍 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates dipped recently
   According to Freddie Mac’s latest PMMS, the 30‑year fixed mortgage averaged 6.26% recently, down from ~6.35% the prior week. Freddie Mac
   The 15‑year fixed is also lower, at 5.41%, down from about 5.50% a week earlier. Freddie Mac+1
   
   

2. Mortgage application demand is holding firm
   The MBA reports a 0.6% increase in total mortgage applications (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending September 19, 2025. MBA
   Breakdown: refinance applications rose ~1%, and purchase applications nudged up ~0.3%. MBA
   
   

3. Inventory is slowly loosening in Denton County
   The Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center’s Denton County housing snapshot shows an uptick in active listings, more homes coming on the market, and more choices for buyers. Texas Real Estate Research Center
   (Note: I can’t yet verify this week’s exact months‑of‑supply or listing count, but the trend is consistent in recent months.) Texas Real Estate Research Center+1
   
   

4. Pricing pressure is softening
   While median home prices are still strong, growth has decelerated. Some neighborhoods are seeing slower year‑over‑year increases, and in a few pockets, slight declines in price per square foot. Texas Real Estate Research Center+2Texas Real Estate Research Center+2
   That gives move‑up buyers more leverage — sellers may be more open to negotiations, especially when homes linger.
   
   

5. More days on market = more breathing room
   In Denton County, average days on market have increased compared to the same time last year. It’s not a dramatic jump, but enough that you can take a little more time on inspections, comparables, and favoring value over hype. Texas Real Estate Research Center
   
   

🛠 What I’m Watching & What You Should Do

• If you’re in pre‑approval mode, this is a good window: rates have some wiggle room downward, and lenders are still active.
  
  

• Don’t stretch just to hit “bigger” — pay attention to condition, layout, and resale potential, especially now that buyers have more choices.
  
  

• Use rising inventory to your advantage: more leverage, more wiggle room on upgrades.
  
  

• Keep an eye on absorption rates (how fast homes are selling). If that starts to decelerate further, sellers may get more flexible on closing costs, repair credits, or price.
  
  

• For homes in newer neighborhoods, monitor builder incentives (closing cost help, option upgrades, lot premiums) — they often tighten incentives first in cooling cycles.

The Weekly Key: What Move‑Up Buyers & Sellers in Denton County Should Know (Sep 23, 2025)

🔍 3‑5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates are easing
   The national 30‑year fixed mortgage rate dropped to about 6.26% this week (down from ~6.35% last week). Bloomberg+3markets.businessinsider.com+3Mortgage News Daily+3
   The 15‑year fixed also ticked down, now around 5.41%. markets.businessinsider.com+1
   
   

2. Mortgage application demand is ticking up
   Applications jumped 29.7% week‑over‑week (seasonally adjusted). Trading Economics+3Mortgage News Daily+3Floor Daily+3
   Refinance demand surged much more (≈ 60% higher), while purchase applications are up modestly (~3%) over last week. MBA Newslink+2Mortgage News Daily+2
   
   

3. Inventory & pricing in Denton County show signs of softening
   Based on Redfin’s latest:
   
   

   • Median sale price in Denton County is about $459,700, roughly down 1.1% year‑over‑year. Redfin
     
     

   • Homes are spending more time on the market — ~48 days on average vs ~36 days same time last year. Redfin
     
     

4. Months of supply climbing
   Denton County’s inventory of existing resale homes has reached ~5.6 months of supply. That’s significantly higher than past years and indicates buyers may have more room to negotiate. aaronlayman.com
   Builders/new homes have a lower supply (~3.5 months), but that category is behaving differently. aaronlayman.com
   
   

5. Pricing per square foot is under pressure
   Median listing price per square foot in Denton County is softening. It’s lower YoY, showing that while total prices might not drop drastically, the “bang for your buck” in space is shifting. FRED+1

🛠 What I’m Seeing & What Move‑Up Buyers Should Do

• If you’re ready to move up, locking in financing now (or getting pre‑approval) could be smart, because falling rates + rising inventory = more leverage.
  
  

• Don’t stretch for square footage at the cost of condition — homes with fewer days on market and pricing aligned with comps will still attract competition.
  
  

• Keep an eye on resale inventory; there are more options coming, especially for existing homes. That means you might get more upgrades or price concessions than earlier in the year.
  
  

• For those considering new construction, act quickly on builder incentives — they tend to move when supply is rising and demand is softer.

Hey everyone — Tanya here. If you’re thinking about leveling up in Denton County (bigger yard, more space, better schools), I’ve got some juicy updates this week, 9/16/2025. 📈

What’s Going On

1. Rates are easing a bit
   The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to about 6.35% this week, down from ~6.50% last week. That’s the lowest it’s been in nearly a year. GlobeNewswire+3Bloomberg.com+3The World Property Journal+3
   The 15-year fixed rate is roughly 5.50%. The World Property Journal+2Bloomberg.com+2
   
   

2. Buyer activity is waking up
   Purchase applications are increasing, likely because the pulling-back of rates is offering some breathing room. The Mortgage Reports+2The World Property Journal+2
   Even refinancing is getting more interest now that rates are softer. The World Property Journal+2Mortgage News Daily+2
   
   

3. Inventory & Pricing
     Avg. Price in DFW: $387,599 

               Average days on Market: 89 

Active Listings: 33,404, 

Closed Sales: 8,246 

4. A window of opportunity if you’re ready
   With rates coming off their highs and buyers still cautious, there’s less competition than during the spring. If we lock your financing now (or close to it), you might get good leverage on closing costs, repairs, or even a seller-funded rate buydown.
   
   

What’s in the News This Week 

• Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest since October. Great for buyers who’ve been on the fence.
  More → [AP: Average rate … lowest in nearly a year] AP News
  
  

• Bank of America suggests rates could fall toward 5% in 2026 if the Fed resumes purchasing mortgage-backed securities. Big if it happens.
  More → [MarketWatch on BoA strategy] MarketWatch
  
  

• PIMCO is pushing for the Fed to pause reducing its holdings of mortgage bonds to help cool big rate spreads. Could impact rates in the near-term.
  More → [Reuters summary] Reuters

My Advice for Buyers

If I were in your shoes:

• I’d lock in a rate quote now (or at least get pre-approval) so you have a baseline, then watch if there’s a dip. Even small savings matter when you’re going up in price.

• I’d lean toward homes that are priced realistically for where things are right now, not what the spring comps were. Sellers still expect top dollar, but buyer strength is softer.
  
  

• Explore new build options—I’m seeing more incentives lately (closing help, upgrades). Sometimes they beat resale when factoring all the costs.