Climate change has long posed a looming threat to the Oceania region. Predicting how the phenomenon will impact the region is one of the essential steps in formulating an effective preventive mitigation plan. This study conducted an assessment of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle to examine the climate change trend in the past and the future using data from the Community Earth System Model (CESM2). The historical data we analyzed confirms the existence of climate change, as El Niño, a warming wind occurrence, has intensified over the past few decades. Meanwhile, the complimentary La Niña cycle, which is a cooling wind, grows weaker in intensity, suggesting a growing trend of more intense temperature spikes that could spell disaster for many ecological concerns. For instance, growing food could be affected. Predictive data also suggests potentially larger temperature increases as well, as predictions based on future data estimate an increase in temperature for the Oceania region. Based on our data, we also found Melanesia will likely be the most affected out of the three sub-regions. However, the other sub-regions of Polynesia and Micronesia also display warming patterns based on future predictions, and all regions remain at high risk of damage due to the effects of climate change. This research helps support the need for further exploration into climate mitigation strategies.

To support the predictive data, machine learning models were implemented as well. However, the trained models do not provide a highly accurate prediction rate. Among the three variables, Surface Temperature is an overwhelmingly strong predictor compared to the other two. For future studies, using more variables for machine learning model training could be beneficial. Additionally, working with this sort of data is incredibly taxing on computers, and so we were only able to use three variables in the first place. If we had more time, space, and computing power, we could make bigger models, with different methods, which could make more accurate predictions for the region. It's something to consider for future research.

Despite numerous environmental efforts directed towards the Oceania region in recent decades, significant changes are not reflected in either the historical or predictive data. This emphasizes the inadequacy of past climate mitigation campaigns and urges the need for a new strategy. The matter demands immediate attention from both local and global levels. Sinking smaller islands due to rising sea levels is not the only concern. Even slight changes in temperature can adversely affect the local agricultural and fishery economy, jeopardizing the livelihoods of the people of Oceania.

In the end, we did answer all of our questions, although some required outside help and research. We found evidence of past climate change in Oceania, and predictions of more climate change to come in the area. Current research, as well as our data, showcases that current climate mitigation strategies are not working, and require major changes.

This research emphasizes the need for urgent action, both worldwide and in at-risk areas like Oceania. Our findings can be used as part of the large amount of research that backs this idea and can help outline new plans, such as focusing climate aid on the most risky areas or islands. We expected to find the conclusions we did, largely because current research shows that climate change is a major problem all around the world. But our findings support that evidence and more evidence is always better when it comes to making new laws or plans that could potentially shift the issue in a better direction. Hopefully, the conclusions we found will help drive new ideas when it comes to making climate change an issue of the past.