My research lies at the interface of applied mathematics, epidemiology, and public health.
I develop and analyze mathematical models to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and to evaluate the impact of control strategies such as vaccination, mobility restrictions, and other public health interventions.
My work combines tools from dynamical systems, optimal control, numerical simulation, and bifurcation analysis, with applications to diseases such as COVID-19, human papillomavirus, and vector-borne infections. More broadly, I am interested in using mathematical modeling as a bridge between theoretical analysis and real-world decision-making in epidemiology.
Saldaña, F., Velasco-Hernández, J. X., Ezanno, P., & Cecilia, H. (2026). Multiscale modeling of vector-borne diseases: The role of dose-dependent transmission. Epidemics, 100904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2026.100904
Saldaña, F., Wang, H., & Camacho-Gutíerrez, J. A. (2025). Unraveling the influence of the objective functional on epidemic optimal control: Insights from the SIR model. Mathematical Biosciences, 381, 109395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109395
Saldaña, F. (2024). Vaccination strategies in a pair formation model for human papillomavirus infection: An optimal control approach. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 111994. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2024.111994
Saldaña, F., Stollenwerk, N., & Aguiar, M. (2024). Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics. Royal Society Open Science, 11, 240919. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.240919
Saldana, F., Stollenwerk, N., Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J., & Aguiar, M. (2024). Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-60661-y
Saldaña, F., Kebir, A., Camacho-Gutíerrez, J. A., & Aguiar, M. (2023). Optimal vaccination strategies for a heterogenous population using multiple objectives: The case of L1− and L2− formulations. Mathematical Biosciences, 366, 109103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109103
Saldaña, F., María L. Daza-Torres, & Aguiar, M. (2023). Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe. Plos One. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290387
Saldaña, F., Steindorf, V., Srivastav, A. K., Stollenwerk, N., & Aguiar, M. (2023). Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 86(5), 75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01910-y
Saldaña, F., Camacho-Gutiérrez, J. A., Villavicencio-Pulido, G., & Velasco-Hernández, J.X. (2022). Modeling the transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for human papillomavirus infection: An optimal control approach. Applied Mathematical Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2022.08.017
Saldana, F., & Velasco-Hernandez, J. X. (2021). Modeling the COVID-19 pandemic: A primer and overview of mathematical epidemiology. SeMA Journal: Bulletin of the Spanish Society of Applied Mathematics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40324-021-00260-3
Saldana, F., Camacho-Gutierrez J.A., Barradas I., Korobeinikov, A. (2021). When optimal is not the best: Cost-effectiveness analysis for HPV epidemic models. Revista de modelamiento matemático de sistemas biológicos. https://revistammsb.utem.cl/?p=223
Saldana, F., & Velasco-Hernandez, J. X. (2021). The trade-off between mobility and vaccination for COVID-19 control: a metapopulation modeling approach. Royal Society Open Science. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202240
Saldaña F., Flores-Arguedas H., Camacho-Gutierrez J.A., Barradas I. (2020) Modeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering. 10.3934/mbe.2020231.
Saldaña F., Barradas I. (2020) Evaluating the potential of vaccine‐induced type replacement for high‐risk human papillomaviruses. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.5932
Camacho, A., Saldaña, F., Barradas, I. Jerez, S. (2019) Modeling Public Health Campaigns for Sexually Transmitted Infections via Optimal and Feedback Control. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-019-00642-9
Saldaña, F., Korobeinikov, A. & Barradas, I. (2019) Optimal Control against the Human Papillomavirus: Protection versus Eradication of the Infection. Abstract and Applied Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/4567825
Saldaña, F., & Barradas, I. (2018). The role of behavioral changes and prompt treatment in the control of STIs. Infectious Disease Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2018.12.001
Saldaña, F., & Barradas, I. (2018). Control Strategies in Multigroup Models: The Case of the Star Network Topology. Bulletin of mathematical biology, 80(11), 2978-3001. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-018-0503-6
Solis, F. J., & Saldaña, F. (2018). Biological mechanisms of coexistence for a family of age-structured population models. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 343, 708-718. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2018.04.065
Flores-Arguedas, H., Camacho-Gutiérrez, J.A., Saldaña, F. (2023). Retrospective Modeling of the Impact of Vaccination and Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic. In: Sriraman, B. (eds) Handbook of Visual, Experimental and Computational Mathematics. Springer, Cham.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93954-0_43-1
Gerrish, P. J., Saldaña, F., Colato, A., Torres, E. E. R., Okosun, T. Y., & Velasco-Hernández, J. X. (2023). Pandemic response: Isolationism or solidarity?: An evolutionary perspective. In Mathematical Modelling, Simulations, and AI for Emergent Pandemic Diseases (pp. 93-108). Academic Press.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-95064-0.00007-5