Research

Working Papers

”Disruptive Effects of Natural Disasters: The 1906 San Francisco Fire” Draft

Abstract. Natural disasters are growing in frequency globally. Understanding how vulnerable populations respond to these disasters is essential for effective policy response. This paper explores the short- and long-run consequences of the 1906 San Francisco Fire, one of the largest urban fires in American history. Using linked Census records, I follow residents of San Francisco and their children from 1900 to 1940. Historical records suggest that exogenous factors such as wind and the availability of water determined where the fire stopped. I implement a spatial regression discontinuity design across the boundary of the razed area to identify the effect of the fire on those who lost their home to it. I find that in the short run, the fire displaced affected residents, forced them into lower paying occupations and out of entrepreneurship. Experiencing the disaster disrupted children’s school attendance and led to an average loss of six months of education. While most effects attenuated over time, the negative effect on business ownership persists even in 1940, 34 years after the fire. Therefore, my findings reject the hope for a “reversal of fortune” for the victims, in contrast to what is found for more recent natural disasters such as hurricane Katrina.

Listen here to the ECONtribute Wirtschaftspodcast episode about my research concerning the 1906 San Francisco Fire (in German).

This paper was awarded the "Young Author Best Paper Award" of the German Economic Association (VfS Reinhard-Selten-Preis).

”Childhood Migration and Education: Evidence from Indonesia” (Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Development Economics) Draft

Abstract. Millions of families migrate every year in search of better opportunities. Whether these opportunities materialize for the children brought with them depends on the quality of the destination that their parents selected. Using Indonesian Census data, I find that average differences in educational outcomes are small between children who moved domestically and those who did not. However, conditional on having migrated, destination turns out to be very important. Exploiting variation in the age of migration, I show that children who spend more time growing up in better districts have higher graduation rates and more years of completed schooling. These effects are persistent and carry over to better labor market outcomes. Overall, my findings suggest substantial heterogeneity of returns to childhood migration with respect to destination.

”Hiring and the Dynamics of the Gender Gap” (with Hannah Illing and Linh Tô) (Draft available upon request)

Abstract. In this study, we examine how the same hiring opportunity leads to different labor market outcomes for male and female full-time workers. By utilizing matched employer-employee data from Germany, our empirical approach leverages 30,000 unforeseen worker deaths spanning from 1980 to 2016 which enables us to explore how firms react to exogenous vacancies. In a first exercise, we propose a novel measure of the gender wage gap by comparing the wages of deceased workers and their replacements across four transition groups: male-male, male-female, female-male, and female-female. Using the respective transition gap of groups without a change in gender as a counterfactual, we estimate the resulting gender wage gap to be about 20 log points. Furthermore, we use machine learning to compare workers who are hired into similar positions, and find that, regardless of the departed worker’s gender, female replacement workers are offered (or negotiate) positions with average starting wages that are 20 log points lower than their male counterparts. Even after considering the pre-hire wage of replacement workers at their previous firm, half of this gap persists. The wage gap does not close over the subsequent years. The gender disparity in opportunities cannot be attributed to redistribution of wages paid among other coworkers.

Work in Progress

”Economic Development, Structural Transformation and Female Labor Force Participation: The United States” (with Robert Margo and Claudia Olivetti)

Abstract. A central feature of modern economic development is the U-shaped pattern in female labor force participation. At very early stages of development the vast majority of goods are produced within households and for some of these – clothing, processed food – women provide most or all of the labor. As development proceeds, production shifts to the market but women remain at home and female labor force participation declines. But at higher levels of development and income, women are drawn back into the market and female labor force participation increases. Using a panel of US states from 1880 to 1960, we show that as per capita income rises through the development process, female labor force participation traces out a U-shaped pattern. Establishing the presence of a U-shaped pattern does require that we adjust the census data on labor force participation for under-reporting of female labor in agriculture, which was significant in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century – but this adjustment is well-established in the historical literature, having been first pointed out (and implemented by) Goldin (1993). Investigating sectoral patterns, focusing on differences by gender, we find that, as sectoral transformation evolved across US states – from agriculture, to manufacturing, and to services – the impact is to lower the participation of women first, and then subsequently increase it.

“Mobility and Labor Market Effects of Being Hit by a Flood Event” (with Hannah Illing, Johannes Weber, and Franziska Winkler)

”A Silver Lining: Women and the 1918 Flu Pandemic” (with Katarina Fedorov and Pawel Janas)

"East-West Migration: Evidence from 200 Years of Settlement in the United States" (with Samuel Bazzi, James Feigenbaum, Martin Fiszbein, and Santiago Perez)

"How Did Service in WWI Affect American GIs' Attitudes?" (with James Feigenbaum)