site analysis

Through extensive analysis of both ecological and social factors, we have identified a census tract in the southeast of San Rafael as our target case study. This site sits along the coast, with greater exposure to flood risk and impacts of sea level rise. This area is also a clear site of both ecological and social vulnerability. Paired with these factors, the site currently has ongoing restoration efforts. This includes the Tiscornia Marsh Restoration project to the North. Local populations impacted by this work may include the Canal Neighborhood, as well as Latnix communities to the West. With this context in mind, there exists and opportunity to build off of existing efforts and support, while the paucity of accessible greenspace available to these populations.

SOCIAL FACTORS

A variety of human and social variables have informed potential stepping stone habitat site locations. These include tree equity and social vulnerability, as spaces for wildlife may also enhance access to green space for local communities. We have also considered zoning and roads in order to account for human activity and related barriers in adjacent locales. Tree equity and social vulnerability scores highlight a lack of green space in this area, along with higher rates of poverty and unemployment, as well as lower rates of education. The area is primarily zoned for commercial development and planned development. On one hand, this highlights a potential for problematic construction that may lead to pollution of the Bay and the community nearby. On the other hand, this is an opportunity to suggest mixed use, and implementation of stepping stone habitat along the shore.

Social Vulnerability Index

Tree Equity

Zoning

Roads & Noise

Low-income Households

As seen in this map, low-income households are concentrated around the canal and the shoreline. Canal Neighborhood residents will be the first to experience impacts of sea level rise in San Rafael. Studies have shown that the introduction of green areas in lower-resource areas tend to have larger impacts on the neighborhood directly adjacent to them.

People of Color

The largest racial group in San Rafael is White, at 65.0%, followed by Hispanic or Latino at 31.2%. More than one quarter (27.2%) of residents are foreign-born, with 35.5% reporting a language other than English being spoken at home. With the highest density of people of color adjacent to the proposed stepping stone corridor site, efforts must be made to translate community engagement materials into the primary languages spoken.

Population Density

Though the population density in San Rafael is generally low, the highest population density is in the area surrounding Pickleweed Park, where part our rewilding intervention is focused, thus benefitting the most people with a single set of interventions.

ECOLOGICAL FACTORS

In this context, rewilding can be a powerful strategy. Ecological restoration, particularly along shorelines, provides the opportunity for a nature-based approach to sea level rise adaptation and resilience along with rewilding. In particular, urban greening and blue infrastructure provide buffers and filters between the urban setting and surrounding wildlands. With this context in mind, our team analyzed physical and ecological features of San Rafael, including location of streams, wetlands, and urban parks, along with the distribution of at-risk target species and disaster risks including landslides and wildfires.

Streams and wetlands have the greatest surface area in the Northeast and Southeast parts of the city, while the distribution of existing parks and greenspace (along with the buffer of urban-wildland interface zones), reveal a large gap in park space to the Southeast of the city. This means that wildlife along this portion of shoreline may be trapped in a sink, exposed to greater predation and competition. Next, an assessment of landslide and fire risk highlight that this area is relatively low risk, suggesting that stepping stone habitats would not be exposed to some these hazards.

Lastly, our target species include Rigdway’s Rail, the Saltmarsh Harvest Mouse, and California Red Legged Frog, all of which are threatened and/or endangered. All three have been sighted in the study area, and have historically occupied territory throughout the Bay Area and continue to do so. Our stepping stone habitat designs may allow these animals to repopulate the San Rafael shoreline, becoming a part of the urban fabric.

All of these factors highlight the shoreline of San Rafael as a site of opportunity for rewilding and facilitating the movement of urban wildlife.

Streams & Wetlands

Parks &

Urban Wildland Interface

Landslides & Fire

REWILDING SUITABILITY ANALYSIS

What Does This Show?

Compiling social and ecological data creates an image of a fragmented landscape within the City of San Rafael. Most obvious are the stretches of red to the East. Pockets of opportunity for wildlife movement lie on the shoreline, surrounded by commercial, residential and planned development. Along with this, the census track to the Southeast score lowest on Social Vulnerability and Tree Equity measures. This population may have fewer economic and social resources, paired with less access to open space. Together these factors highlight how both ecological and social connectivity are manifest at our study site.

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