Revolution modernizes education: The dynamic consequences of state building (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: The 1911 Revolution was the first democratic revolution in Chinese history. It overthrew the monarchical rule and established the first republican government in China. This paper examines how the 1911 democratic revolution and the establishment of a republic modernized China’s education system. Using Difference-in-Differences and Instrumental Variable approaches, I demonstrate that the revolution significantly contributed to the advancement of modern education. Counties that actively supported the revolution through violent actions between 1911 and 1912 established a greater number of modern educational facilities and enrolled more students in the post-revolution period. After the revolution, these counties had, on average, 0.15 more middle school, 23 more middle school students, 3 more higher primary schools, and 129 more higher primary school students, 18 more lower primary schools, and 749 more students enrolled in lower primary schools compared to counties that did not participate. Counties that launched uprisings experienced an increase in educational funding following the establishment of the republic. Moreover, counties with a stronger presence of revolutionary groups before the revolution experienced a significantly higher enrollment of students in western-style primary schools.
Can disaster relief reduce conflicts? Evidence from imperial China (1644-1911) (with Ruiming Liu and Christian Cox)
Abstract: This study investigates whether government disaster relief measures, such as tax reductions and food aid, effectively mitigate social conflicts. To address this question, We are compiling a unique prefecture-level dataset on disasters, government relief responses, and social unrest in the Chinese Empire from 1644 to 1911. The data was extracted from the imperial government records which contains 500 million words using artificial intelligence (LLMs). Based on these data, we found that the state capacity of the Chinese Empire began to decline sharply in the early 19th century. The government reduced the frequency of disaster relief and provided little to no food aid. Thereafter, the level of social instability rose rapidly. In the 1911 revolution that brought an end to the monarch, provinces that had received less disaster relief indeed experienced more uprisings, whereas provinces closer to the capital that had received substantial disaster relief largely refrained from participating in the rebellion.
China, jump started: Foreign technology and economic growth (with Price Fishback)
Abstract: In 1978, China's de facto head of state, Deng Xiaoping, abolished the planned economy and initiated a series of market-oriented reforms within the country. These reforms are widely considered the most important reason for China's economic take-off. Starting 1973, China has introduced advanced technology from the United States, West Germany, France, Japan, Nederland and other developed countries, cooperating to establish power plants, chemical plants, and fertilizer plants in different local area of China. We will collect our data from 2,463 prefecture and county gazetteers using a combination of advanced AI tools, including large language models (LLMs) and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Using this dataset, we will employ a difference-in-differences model to estimate the impact of receiving foreign technology support on China's industrial and agricultural development.