The Bottom Line

Florida votes tomorrow, and the early numbers have both parties on edge. Republicans finished early voting with a lead of roughly three points in ballots cast, well below their registration advantage, and both campaigns' internal estimates have Byron Donalds trailing David Jolly by as many as 500,000 votes heading into Election Day. In Tallahassee, incoming Senate President Jim Boyd and incoming House Speaker Sam Garrison say they are planning a low drama partnership for 2027 and that both support Amendment 3, which still faces a close call on reaching 60 percent. Locally, control of the Hillsborough County Commission is on the ballot, a new poll shows Charlie Crist with a wide lead in the St. Petersburg mayor's race, and the Education Commissioner's library book review directive is now playing out in school districts.

On the Ballot

Axios and Florida Politics report that more than 5.1 million Floridians had voted before Election Day, with Republicans holding about a three point edge in ballots cast despite a much larger registration advantage. Democratic strategist Steve Schale puts the final early vote edge for Republicans at about 130,000 ballots, and Republican turnout has lagged most in the Panhandle and rural North Florida counties Donalds lost in the primary. To overcome the deficit, Donalds may need to win Election Day voting by close to two to one, something Republicans have delivered before. Gov. DeSantis acknowledged last week that turnout is not as strong as his party would like. In the U.S. Senate race, polling averages show Sen. Ashley Moody leading Angie Nixon by about six points, and Teamsters President Sean O'Brien said he voted for Moody.

Amendment 3 remains the race our clients are watching most closely. The Tampa Bay Times notes only one public poll has shown the measure at the 60 percent it needs. In the closing days, Seminole County Commissioner Bob Dallari warned his county would face a $119 million shortfall affecting parks, libraries and law enforcement, Miami Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava campaigned against it at every stop, and United Way Suncoast warned the cuts could drain local funding that nonprofits rely on. The New York Times reports municipalities statewide could lose $4.9 billion in the first year and more after that. Voters will also decide Amendment 2, a property tax exemption for agricultural land that supporters call overdue relief for farmers and critics say will strain small, fiscally constrained counties.

Closer to home, Florida Politics reports Democrats see a path to flipping the Hillsborough County Commission. Stacy Hahn faces Neil Manimala for the open District 5 seat after defeating Commissioner Donna Cameron Cepeda in the primary, and Commissioner Joshua Wostal faces Aileen Rodriguez in District 7. If both Democrats win and Commissioner Harry Cohen holds his seat, the board would move from a 5 to 2 Republican majority to a 4 to 3 Democratic majority. The Tampa Bay Times also reports that a Southwest Florida developer family has given more than $122,000 to six commission candidates since 2021, as debate continues over a proposed Fort Hamer Road extension and new Interstate 75 interchange that could open up rural southern Hillsborough to development. In St. Petersburg, the final St. Pete Polls survey shows former Gov. Charlie Crist leading Mayor Ken Welch 55 to 35 percent, with most of the city already having voted. Separately, Mayor Welch has filed a defamation lawsuit against Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch. In Congress, race raters have Rep. Kathy Castor's 14th District between toss up and lean Democrat and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's 13th District between lean Republican and toss up. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. tomorrow, and Florida is among the first states to report.

Why it matters: a change in the Hillsborough Commission majority would reshape decisions on rezonings, impact fees, the Urban Expansion Area and road projects like Fort Hamer that our homebuilder and developer clients depend on. The Amendment 3 outcome will determine whether local governments start rebuilding budgets for permitting staff, roads and schools in 2027, or whether the fight moves to the Legislature.

The Legislature

In a State Affairs podcast, incoming Senate President Jim Boyd and incoming House Speaker Sam Garrison appeared together and described a working relationship they built ahead of time, promising less friction than the last two years of House and Senate standoffs. Both said they support Amendment 3, and they were asked about the possibility of a special session if voters approve it. The Senate convenes for organization on November 17, and the first interim committee week begins November 30.

Why it matters: a cooperative House and Senate makes it more likely that property tax implementation, school choice funding and growth management bills move on a predictable schedule in 2027, which gives all of our clients a clearer runway for their priorities. A special session on Amendment 3 would compress that timeline considerably.

Education

The Orlando Sentinel reports that school districts are carrying out Education Commissioner Henry Mack's September directive to complete a 90 day review of all school library materials, with the Commissioner warning he would hold districts and superintendents accountable. Seminole County told the state it pulled five titles named in the memo. Gov. DeSantis reappointed former House Speaker pro tempore MaryLynn Magar to the State Board of Education, subject to Senate confirmation. The Department of Education also noticed its first Florida Educational Leadership Standards workgroup sessions for November 12 and 13 in Tallahassee, with meetings continuing through July 2027, and a department business meeting on November 4. In a Wall Street Journal op ed, former Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia criticized a new IRS proposal on tax exemptions for private schools, arguing it is unlawful and invites agency overreach. And in the House District 37 race in Central Florida, both candidates say they support school choice but want more oversight of voucher funded private schools.

Why it matters: our charter and private school clients should confirm their library and media review processes are documented, since the Department's scrutiny is unlikely to stop with district schools. The leadership standards workgroup will shape expectations for principals and school leaders, and the IRS proposal is worth watching closely for our private school clients. Calls for more voucher oversight, even from supporters of choice, are a preview of 2027 session debates.

Construction and the Workforce

The Wall Street Journal reports that companies are turning to women to ease the skilled trade shortage, offering paid maternity leave, more flexibility and stricter jobsite conduct standards. The National Association of Home Builders released state data on the age of the construction workforce, noted rising interest in the trades among younger workers, and pushed back on a University of Alabama study on building codes, saying its affordability claims are unsupported. Axios reports that employer health insurance costs are rising at their fastest pace in 20 years, more than twice as fast as wages, which is holding down raises. In Tampa Bay, the Times reports Mosaic is laying off Florida workers because of a global sulfur shortage tied to the Iran conflict. On the state side, the Department of Environmental Protection proposed two new general environmental resource permits, one for living shorelines and one for inshore reefs.

Why it matters: workforce recruitment remains the top constraint for our HVAC contractor and homebuilder clients, and rising health coverage costs will weigh on every employer we represent heading into 2027. The new DEP general permits could offer a faster path for shoreline work on waterfront projects.

School Transportation

The White House listed a $300 million investment by school bus maker Blue Bird among the week's announced manufacturing commitments.

Weather

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms around Tampa Bay today with a high near 80, which our school and contractor clients should factor into outdoor activities and job site schedules.

Around the State

Gov. DeSantis suspended Kissimmee Mayor Jackie Espinosa following her arrest on fraud and grand theft charges tied to a pandemic relief grant program, and appointed Pensacola State College President and former Commerce Secretary Alex Kelly to the Florida Defense Support Commission. The Governor also designated "Seminole Wind" as Florida's anthem and ordered flags to half staff today in memory of country music artist John Anderson. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission faces an Inspector General review over investigators' searches of records belonging to environmental activists. We extend our condolences to the families of the nine people killed when a private jet crashed onto a roadway in Palm Beach County on Sunday, and to the families of the victims of the Halloween weekend shootings in Jacksonville.

Key Dates Ahead

Council member Viera leaves the Tampa City Council today, November 2. The general election is tomorrow, November 3, with polls open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., the same day as the Building Commission's energy code comparison meeting and the Public Service Commission's scheduled decision on Duke's data center rates. November 4 brings the Department of Education business meeting, DEP's virtual Quarterly Resilience Forum, Florida Supreme Court arguments, the deadline for proposals for FSU's statewide AI purchasing framework, and the forced air zoning training in Sarasota. Tampa's charter amendment ordinances are scheduled for first reading November 5, when council also takes up the data center moratorium resolution and Florida Housing's Audit Committee meets in Fort Myers, followed by the Florida Housing board meeting there on November 6. The District Workforce Education Funding Steering Committee and the CERT educator certification workgroup both meet virtually November 9. November 10 brings the close of public comment on the workers' compensation filing, Florida Housing's SAIL preservation workshop, Hillsborough's final hearing on the kratom compound ban and its hearing on the electric bike and micromobility ordinance, and the second building code webinar. The Florida Educational Leadership Standards workgroup meets November 12 and 13 in Tallahassee. On November 17, new legislator training begins, the Senate convenes for organization, Tampa City Council names an interim replacement for the Viera seat, and the Florida Charter School Conference opens in Orlando, running through November 19, when Tampa's final charter vote is also scheduled. The Uniform Permit Application Workgroup meets November 20, the same day comments close on the remote notarization rule, and the Office of Insurance Regulation's claims complaint rule hearing is November 23. The first interim committee week for the 2027 session is the week of November 30. The Building Commission's advanced course review committee meets December 2, its product approval and accessibility waiver panels meet December 3 alongside another building code webinar, the full Florida Building Commission meets December 8 in St. Augustine, the same day the Board of Professional Engineers meets in Tallahassee, the Sarasota County legislative delegation meets December 9, the Division of Administrative Hearings takes up the school vaccine rule challenges December 14 through 18, the final building code webinar is December 15, the State Board of Education meets December 16 in Bay County, when it is expected to vote on the science standards, and the 9th Edition Florida Building Code takes effect December 31. The new school bus surcharge applies to buses built on or after January 1, 2027, the same date the proposed workers' compensation rates would take effect, and Gov. DeSantis leaves office January 5. Bids for the Governor's Mansion renovation are expected by mid January, Hillsborough could take up the Sundance rezoning as early as January, and Hillsborough staff's growth related infrastructure fee review policy is due January 20. DEP's next Quarterly Resilience Forum is February 3, and the 2027 Regular Session opens March 2, the same day as the Tampa mayoral election, when voters would also decide any charter amendments council sends to the ballot.

As always, please reach out with any questions or if there is anything we can help with.

Here is our roundup of what we're watching in Tallahassee, Tampa Bay, and across the state since our last update.

The Bottom Line

The Legislature is turning from campaigning to governing. Incoming Senate President Jim Boyd named his leadership team, with Sen. Nick DiCeglie as Majority Leader and Sen. Jay Trumbull leading Appropriations, and incoming House Speaker Sam Garrison released a new committee structure that adds a Policy and Strategy Committee for long range and fiscal planning, a full technology committee, and a revived Public Integrity Committee. The Senate formally organizes on November 17. Closer to home, Gov. DeSantis appointed Jeffrey Harrington as Pasco's new sheriff following Chris Nocco's move to the Senate. The state's Medicaid office is also convening a review of how applied behavior analysis services are delivered, the Florida Building Commission has two new code questions in front of it that touch residential construction and permitting, and Wall Street took its worst one day drop since April 2025.

The Legislature

Senate President designate Jim Boyd announced the team that will run the Senate for the next two years, describing his picks as fair, thoughtful and willing to build consensus. Sen. Ana Maria Rodriguez is his choice for President Pro Tempore, Sen. Danny Burgess will chair Rules, Sen. Jay Trumbull will chair Appropriations, Sen. Colleen Burton will chair Fiscal Policy, and Sen. Nick DiCeglie, who just won reelection in Senate District 18, will serve as Majority Leader and work with Democratic Leader designate Tracie Davis to keep the floor moving. Florida Politics notes that Trumbull and Burton will split the fiscal workload, with Fiscal Policy giving bills that carry a financial impact another path to the floor. Boyd and Garrison say they built their working relationship before taking power, with Garrison promising a low drama term after two sessions that ran past the 60 day mark without a budget. Florida Politics also reports that Sen. elect John Lowndes defeated Sen. Jason Brodeur on Tuesday.

On the House side, Speaker designate Garrison released the proposed committee structure and jurisdictions for the new term. He is keeping most of the current setup but creating a Policy and Strategy Committee to pull together major initiatives that cut across several committees and agencies, study what big reforms will cost and how they will work, and focus on long range planning and fiscal stability. That committee may hear bills with a fiscal impact. He is also creating a full Advanced Technology and Digital Security Committee covering state technology, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and data privacy, and reestablishing a Public Integrity Committee that will handle ethics, lobbying, financial disclosure and conflicts of interest. Several other committees are getting new names and adjusted jurisdictions. Boyd's team takes the helm when the Senate convenes for its organizational session on November 17.

Why it matters: committee assignments and jurisdictions decide which members and staff will hear our clients' issues, from school funding and charter policy to building codes, impact fees and contractor licensing. Having a Tampa Bay senator as Majority Leader and a new House committee focused on long range fiscal questions are both worth watching as lawmakers take up Amendment 3 implementation and the 2027 budget. We will share the full House committee lineup and chair assignments once they are announced.

Local Government

Gov. DeSantis appointed Jeffrey Harrington as Pasco County Sheriff. A judge had already named Harrington interim sheriff hours before outgoing Sheriff Chris Nocco's resignation took effect following Nocco's win in the Senate District 21 special election. In Hillsborough, Tampa International Airport has dropped plans for a lounge at Airside C as part of a $13 million revamp of its concession spaces, which will include a new lounge at Airside A. The Hillsborough County Fair is underway in Dover through November 15.

Land Use and Development

Two new petitions for declaratory statements are pending before the Florida Building Commission. One, from a structural engineering firm designing a two story home with a wood framed second floor over a masonry first floor, asks whether the new 9th Edition Florida Building Code, Residential allows performance based design to set roof deck thickness. The other asks whether the Building Code or state permitting law gives a local building official or contracted building administrator any authority to accept a verbal okay in place of written permits, boundary surveys and engineering specifications for a permanent structure. Separately, the Southwest Florida Water Management District will hold a December workshop on proposed minimum levels for Lake Aurora in Polk County, and the Board of Professional Engineers has a committee meeting set for November 30.

Why it matters: with the 9th Edition code taking effect December 31, the Commission's answers will offer early guidance on how the new residential provisions are applied in the field, which matters for our homebuilder clients and the HVAC and mechanical contractors who work alongside them. The permitting question is a reminder that written approvals remain the safe course on any job site.

Health Care

The Agency for Health Care Administration's Division of Medicaid is convening a review of how applied behavior analysis services are delivered in Florida, with stated goals of high quality, family centered care and long term sustainability. LobbyTools also reports a new appellate court ruling in the case over the state's Medicaid unwinding process.

Why it matters: applied behavior analysis is a core service for many children with autism and other developmental disabilities, including families served by our school clients who focus on students with special needs. Any change in how Medicaid delivers or pays for these services would directly affect those families, and we will be following the review closely.

Education

Gov. DeSantis and Education Commissioner Henry Mack visited Polk State College's Lake Wales campus to award $276,000 from the state's workforce development grant program for the college's agricultural technology drone program, part of a new two year precision agriculture program that feeds into the University of Florida. The State Board of Education's Financial Emergency Board will meet virtually November 17 to review the finances of the Glades County and Union County school districts, and the Division of Blind Services will hold a virtual meeting on its 2027 budget issues November 16.

State Revenue and the Economy

Markets fell sharply Thursday, with the Nasdaq dropping 5.5 percent and the S&P 500 losing 4.4 percent in the worst day since April 2025. The Wall Street Journal and Axios tie the selloff to investor worries about artificial intelligence and data center spending after voters backed candidates and ballot measures skeptical of data center growth. The October jobs report is due out today. On the travel front, Kayak data shows Florida holds five of the top 10 trending domestic holiday destinations, led by Punta Gorda, Valparaiso near Destin, and Sarasota, even as holiday airfares run well above last year, averaging about $417 for Thanksgiving compared with $317 a year ago.

Why it matters: strong holiday travel to Florida supports the sales and tourist tax collections that fund state and local budgets, while a prolonged market downturn could weigh on corporate tax collections, which drove September's better than expected revenue numbers.

Around the State

Our condolences go to the family and friends of Leanne Selman of Palm Harbor, who was killed in Wednesday's shooting at the Citibank campus near Brandon, and we continue to keep the injured in our thoughts. The Tampa Bay Times reports the state appears to have backed away from a plan to redirect nearly $200 million in federal electric vehicle charger funds toward flying car infrastructure.

Weather

Expect sunny skies around Tampa Bay today with a high near 82 and a low around 70. Gov. DeSantis amended his emergency order for heavy rain from October 31 through November 2 to cover Brevard, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Indian River, Martin and St. Lucie counties, adding Riviera Beach. Hurricane season ends November 30.

Key Dates Ahead

Today, November 6, the Florida Housing Finance Corporation board meets in Fort Myers and the October jobs report is released. The District Workforce Education Funding Steering Committee and the CERT educator certification workgroup both meet virtually November 9. November 10 brings the close of public comment on the workers' compensation filing, Florida Housing's SAIL preservation workshop, Hillsborough's final hearing on the kratom compound ban and its hearing on the electric bike and micromobility ordinance, the Hillsborough Community Alliance meeting, and the second building code webinar. On November 12, Live Local SAIL applications are due and DEP holds a virtual meeting on the Drinking Water State Revolving Fund priority lists, the Florida Educational Leadership Standards workgroup meets November 12 and 13 in Tallahassee, and the Board of Governors meets the same days in Miami. MACCA's Turkey Shoot is November 14 in Nokomis, and the Hillsborough County Fair runs through November 15. The Division of Blind Services takes up its 2027 budget issues November 16. On November 17, the Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the results, new legislator training begins, the Senate convenes for organization and Boyd's leadership team takes over, the Financial Emergency Board reviews the Glades and Union school district finances, Tampa City Council names an interim replacement for the Viera seat, and the Florida Charter School Conference opens in Orlando, running through November 19, when Tampa's final charter vote is also scheduled. The DOH developmental disabilities advisory council meets November 18. The Uniform Permit Application Workgroup meets November 20, the same day comments close on the remote notarization rule, and November 23 brings the Office of Insurance Regulation's claims complaint rule hearing and the close of comments on DEP's new general permits. The first interim committee week for the 2027 session is the week of November 30, the same day hurricane season ends and a Board of Professional Engineers committee meets, and the Amendment 3 Special Session is expected before the end of the year. The Building Commission's advanced course review committee meets December 2, its product approval and accessibility waiver panels meet December 3 alongside another building code webinar, the full Florida Building Commission meets December 8 in St. Augustine, the same day the Board of Professional Engineers meets in Tallahassee, the Sarasota County legislative delegation meets December 9, the Building Code Administrators and Inspectors Board meets December 10 and 11 in Tampa, DCF's behavioral health planning council meets December 10, the Division of Administrative Hearings takes up the school vaccine rule challenges December 14 through 18, the final building code webinar is December 15, the State Board of Education meets December 16 in Bay County, when it is expected to vote on the science standards, and the 9th Edition Florida Building Code takes effect December 31. Southwest Florida Water Management District's Lake Aurora workshop is also set for December. The new school bus surcharge applies to buses built on or after January 1, 2027, the same date the proposed workers' compensation rates would take effect, Gov. DeSantis leaves office January 5, and St. Petersburg's new mayor and council members are sworn in January 7, the same day Florida Housing's Live Local SAIL review committee meets. MACCA's Contractor Vendor Night is January 13 in Sarasota, bids for the Governor's Mansion renovation are expected by mid January, Hillsborough could take up the Sundance rezoning as early as January, and Hillsborough staff's growth related infrastructure fee review policy is due January 20. DEP's next Quarterly Resilience Forum is February 3, and the 2027 Regular Session opens March 2, the same day as the Tampa mayoral election, when voters would also decide any charter amendments council sends to the ballot. Tampa's new water and sewer rates would take effect July 1 if approved.

The Florida Building Commission has published a proposed rule to formally adopt the Florida Building Code, 9th Edition (2026). This is the final step in the code update process, and it will set the design and construction standards that apply statewide going forward.

Under section 553.73, Florida Statutes, the Commission updates the Building Code every three years. The current 8th Edition (2023) has been in effect since December 31, 2023, and the 9th Edition is scheduled to take effect December 31, 2026. The new edition is built on a newer cycle of the national model codes, along with the Florida specific amendments the Commission approved over the past year through its technical advisory committees. The update covers all of the code volumes, including building, residential, existing building, mechanical, plumbing, fuel gas, energy conservation, and accessibility.

The most important thing for your business is timing. In general, the code in effect when a permit application is submitted is the code that applies to that project. That means projects permitted before December 31 will generally fall under the 8th Edition, while anything submitted after that date will need to meet the 9th Edition. If you have projects in design now that will be permitted around the end of the year, it's worth talking with your design team and building officials about which edition will apply and whether any changes will affect plans, products, or costs.

Since this is the formal adoption rule, most of the substantive code changes have already worked their way through the Commission's process. However, anyone affected still has the opportunity to comment on the proposed rule or request a public hearing within the notice period. If there is a specific provision that concerns you, please let me know as soon as possible so we can raise it before the rule is finalized.

Please reach out if you have any questions or would like me to look into how specific code changes might affect your projects.