The Bottom Line Isaias has strengthened into a hurricane and is on track to threaten Florida's Panhandle, with Tampa Bay under a flood watch and expecting wet, stormy weather today. On the ballot, more than 40% of Florida school districts are asking voters for local property tax increases at the same time the statewide Amendment 3 promises property tax cuts, and business groups are starting to line up against Amendment 3. Locally, the Hillsborough School Board has formally urged a "no" vote on making the superintendent an elected, partisan office, and the state's push to drop several school vaccine requirements now appears headed for a legal challenge.

Hurricane Isaias

The Tampa Bay Times reports Isaias is now a hurricane and that Tampa Bay could feel effects even though the storm's main threat is aimed at the Panhandle. A flood watch is in effect for the Tampa Bay area through midnight tonight, with showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Sen. Rick Scott is heading to Pensacola to meet with local and emergency management officials, and Rep. Jimmy Patronis is urging residents to photograph and video the inside and outside of their homes now and inventory belongings in case they need to file insurance claims. Separately, a coalition of 21 Democratic state attorneys general is asking a federal judge to block FEMA from tying 2026 disaster and emergency management grants, including the program that helps states pay disaster response staff, to cooperation with immigration enforcement.

Why it matters: our school clients should keep an eye on local flooding and any closure decisions today, and our homebuilder and HVAC contractor clients should secure job sites and materials ahead of more rain through the weekend. Anyone with business in Tallahassee or the Panhandle should watch the track closely.

On the Ballot

More than 40% of Florida school districts will ask voters to approve local property tax measures on November 3, the same ballot that carries Amendment 3. Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in Fiscal 2028 and to $250,000 in Fiscal 2029, and it exempts school district taxes, but superintendents in Duval and Polk say voters are confusing the two. Duval's renewal would raise about $121 million, mostly for teacher pay, and Polk leaders warn that failure of their first proposed one mill levy could mean cuts to transportation, staffing, and possibly school closures. The JAX Chamber came out against Amendment 3, arguing it would shift costs to renters, businesses, and commercial property owners, and it would rather see tax reform go through the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission when it convenes in 2027. Jacksonville's auditors project revenue losses reaching $300 million a year by 2028 and 2029, and an opinion piece in the Miami Herald put the statewide local government loss at about $12 billion in 2028.

Why it matters: if Amendment 3 passes, counties and cities will be looking to make up revenue elsewhere, and impact fees, permitting fees, and other charges on new development are likely places to look. That matters for our homebuilder and developer clients. For our school clients, local school tax referendums directly affect district budgets and, where charter schools share in those dollars, charter funding as well.

In Hillsborough, vote by mail ballots are already going out and early voting runs October 19 through November 1. Key local races include County Commission District 1 (Harry Cohen vs. former Rep. Jackie Toledo), District 3 (Gwen Myers vs. Luiz Garcia), District 5 (School Board member Stacy Hahn vs. Neil Manimala), and countywide District 7 (Joshua Wostal vs. Aileen Rodriguez). On the School Board, Karen Perez faces Kenneth Gay in District 6, and Daniela Simic faces Brittany Lyssy in District 2. In Senate District 14, Sen. Brian Nathan again faces former Rep. Josie Tomkow, who leads in fundraising, and Tampa City Council member Luis Viera faces Lisette Bonano in House District 67. Hillsborough voters will also decide referendums on an elected superintendent, expanding the County Commission, and a half cent sales tax for school maintenance. In St. Petersburg, voters will decide whether to allow Port of St. Petersburg leases of up to 25 years instead of 10 without a citywide referendum.

Statewide, the NBC South Florida and Telemundo poll by Mason Dixon also has Sen. Ashley Moody leading Rep. Angie Nixon 50% to 40% in the Senate race, alongside the Donalds lead over Jolly we reported yesterday. Voters ranked inflation and cost of living as their top concern.

Education

The Hillsborough School Board unanimously passed a resolution supporting an appointed superintendent and urging voters to reject the ballot measure that would make the position elected and partisan. The district is also considering converting the former McLane Middle School in Brandon into roughly 150 affordable housing units for teachers and other district employees. In Pinellas, a civic group is urging that politics be kept out of school closure decisions.

At the state level, the fight over the Department of Health's proposal to eliminate four school vaccine requirements (chickenpox, hepatitis B, Hib, and pneumococcal) is moving toward a possible administrative challenge, with health care attorneys saying opponents are preparing to litigate. Florida has reported 148 measles cases this year, and Sen. Carlos Guillermo Smith plans legislation to put all vaccine requirements into state law. The department's rule hearing is today.

New state requirements on artificial intelligence in classrooms are also starting to show up in district policy. School boards must have policies in place by July 1, 2027 that require parental consent before students use certain AI instructional tools, provide comparable alternatives for families who opt out, bar AI systems that simulate companionship or do undisclosed behavioral monitoring, and require human review of grading and discipline decisions.

Why it matters: the vaccine rule affects enrollment paperwork and health compliance at every school, and a legal challenge could leave requirements in flux this year. Our charter and private school clients should also review their own technology and AI practices now so they are ready for the 2027 deadline and any questions from parents.

Land Use and Development

Our condolences to the family of Jay B Starkey, the Pasco cattle rancher and former school board member who oversaw more than 16,000 acres and helped guide Pasco's growth, who passed away September 9 at age 90.

In Sarasota County, commissioners rejected a settlement that would have allowed 126 homes near the Celery Fields and instead voted to explore buying the roughly 50 acre property. D.R. Horton has sued the county, arguing the Live Local Act allows an 864 unit multifamily project on the site. In Tallahassee, the Board of Landscape Architecture has two petitions pending that ask whether comprehensive plan, zoning, and entitlement analysis work requires a landscape architecture license, and whether a licensed landscape architect on a local government staff can face discipline for approving a development order he believes is inconsistent with the comp plan.

Why it matters: the Sarasota case is another test of how far the Live Local Act goes when a county pushes back, which our homebuilder and developer clients are watching closely. The landscape architecture petitions could affect who can perform entitlement and planning work and how local plan reviewers handle consistency calls.

Local Government

Hillsborough commissioners again advanced a $75 million, 15 year partnership with ZooTampa on a 4 to 3 vote, adding new safeguards on how county money is spent, with Commissioners Hagan, Cohen, and Myers opposed because only $50 million has been set aside for all cultural institutions. The county has also rescheduled its hearing on using sales tax money for the Rays stadium. In Pasco, commissioners are weighing ideas to make their meetings more accessible to the public.

Utilities

The Florida Supreme Court heard the appeal of Tampa Electric's $280.6 million base rate increase approved by the PSC in 2024, and justices appeared skeptical of the consumer advocates' arguments. There is no timeline for a ruling.

Around the State

The First District Court of Appeal threw out the Leon County grand jury's Hope Florida presentment, ruling the jury overstepped by criticizing people by name without indicting anyone and that the report was improperly released. The same court ruled Gainesville cannot take back control of its utility from the state appointed GRU Authority. Attorney General James Uthmeier is asking a court to force Meta to adopt stricter protections for children in Florida, including deleting accounts of users under 14 and limiting minors' use to two hours a day, after the state rejected a multistate settlement.

Key Dates Ahead

The Department of Health holds its school vaccine rule hearing today, October 8. Associated Industries of Florida hosts conversations with top Republican candidates on October 12, and the DCF Hillsborough Community Alliance meets October 13 at the Children's Board in Tampa. Tampa City Council takes up the charter amendments on October 15, the same day St. Petersburg holds its final vote on parking fines and fees. The Florida Building Commission's HB 803 uniform permit workgroup meets October 16. Early voting in Hillsborough runs October 19 through November 1. Tampa City Council considers its development fee study on October 21, the same day the Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 22, and the Building Code Administrators and Inspectors Board meets October 22 and 23 in St. Augustine. Public comment on the K-12 science standards closes October 31, and the general election is Tuesday, November 3. The Senate convenes for organization on November 17, and the 2027 Regular Session opens March 2, the same day as the Tampa mayoral election.

As always, please reach out with any questions or if there is anything we can help with.

Sincerely,

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