Research

Working Papers:

“Mutual Fund Style Volatility and Fund Flows” - Job Market Paper

Mutual fund managers often follow investment strategies that result in a drift of their investment styles over time. This paper empirically examines whether the behavior of mutual fund investors is affected by this style drift using a comprehensive sample of U.S. actively-managed equity mutual funds from 1985 to 2013. I find a significant positive relationship between the style volatility and the subsequent fund flows to mutual funds. Further, this relationship is less pronounced for funds with superior past performance. Finally, fund style volatility has a dampening effect on the flow-performance relationship, as performance is perceived as a less informative signal of investment ability for fund managers who follow inconsistent styles over time.

“The Response of Fund Flows to Past Risk Over Business Cycles”

This article investigates how the sensitivity of fund flows to risk levels depends on market conditions. I employ the NBER Boom indicator, the Consumer Sentiment Index, and the National Activity Index to proxy for economic conditions, and I estimate the fund risk using the standard deviation of fund excess returns over a period of time in the past. Using the CRSP mutual fund database spanning twenty-nine years, I find that mutual fund investors react differently to risk across economic environments. Funds with more volatile past returns would discourage fund investors. The investors' demand for actively managed funds is higher in good market condition. Fund flows are less responsive to risk during expansionary economic periods. This finding may indicate that fund investors are risk averse and they become less risk averse under good market state.

Work in Progress:

“Which Matters More: Overall Rank or Family Rank?”

In this paper, I investigate whether fund flows depend not only on the relative performance of a fund within the mutual fund universe, but also on the relative performance of a fund within its fund family. It is well-established that mutual fund investors chase past performance. The standard performance measure used in the mutual fund literature to explain mutual fund flows is the return of a fund relative to all the other funds in the fund universe. Since there are some monetary and nonmonetary constraints of shifting funds across different mutual fund families, mutual fund flows might also depend on the performance of a fund relative to the other funds in the same family. Furthermore, these constraints might have become less important over time due to technological and regulatory changes.

“The Prediction of Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence from Fund Families”

Most mutual funds are affiliated with fund complexes and the data on other funds in one family can yield important information about the ability of a fund manager in that fund family. This paper empirically examines whether the mutual fund performance is affected by prior family performance using a comprehensive sample of U.S. actively-managed equity mutual funds from 1999 to 2015. The empirical findings suggest that there is a significant positive relationship between prior family performance and subsequent fund performance. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that mutual funds in the same family share information resources. This positive relation also justifies the finding in the mutual fund flow literature that fund flows are higher for funds with higher past family performance.