Working Papers
"Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications" (with Geumbi Park and Sarah Zubairy)
"The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications" (with Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens and Alexander W. Richter).
"Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity during the COVID-19 Pandemic" (with Katya Kartashova)
Publications
Mortgage, Consumer Credit, and Housing:
"Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks", Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, 3(1), 122-164, 2025.
"How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers" (with Katya Kartashova), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 57(5), 1167-1210, 2025. (Media coverage: Axios News; Financial Post)
"Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment", Review of Economic Dynamics, 44, 244-268, 2022.
"The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(4), 953-987, 2022.
"A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China", Vol 61, China Economic Review, June 2020.
Inflation, Energy Prices, and Macroeconomy:
"Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Public Economics, 232, 2024.
"Oil Price Shocks and Inflation" (with Lutz Kilian), forthcoming: Handbook of Inflation.
"A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks" (with Lutz Kilian), Energy Economics, 125, 2023. (Media coverage: Barron's)
"Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery" (with Lutz Kilian and Nikos Nomikos), International Journal of Central Banking, 19(1), 417-450, 2023. (VoxEU)
"The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models" (with Lutz Kilian), Advances in Econometrics, 45B, 65-95, 2023.
"A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf", (With Lutz Kilian and Nikos Nomikos), Energy Journal, 44(5), 75-93, 2023.
"Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37(5), 867-881, 2022. (Media coverage: The Economist)
"Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of International Money and Finance, 126, 2022.
"The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23" (with Lutz Kilian) , Energy Economics, 113, 2022.
"Does Drawing down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 673-691, 2020.
"Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 130-140, 2020.
"Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 54-78, November 2018. (VoxEU)
"Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?" (with Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian), Energy Journal, 39, SI2, 117-137, 2018.
"Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis" (with Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(3), 562-580, April 2018. (VoxEU)
Permanent Working Papers
"Multiplier Effects of Federal Disaster-Relief Spending: Evidence from U.S. States and Households"
"Oil Supply Shock Redux?" (with Lutz Kilian)