Research
Working Papers
"Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks", Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics.
"Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand" (with Lutz Kilian), forthcoming: Journal of Public Economics.
Best Paper Award, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities and Energy Management Research Symposium 2023
"Oil Price Shocks and Inflation" (with Lutz Kilian), prepared for Handbook of Inflation.
"Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity during the COVID-19 Pandemic" (with Katya Kartashova)
"Multiplier Effects of Federal Disaster-Relief Spending: Evidence from U.S. States and Households"
"Oil Supply Shock Redux?" (with Lutz Kilian)
Publications
Mortgage, Consumer Credit, and Housing:
"How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers" (with Katya Kartashova), forthcoming: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. (Media coverage: Axios News; Financial Post)
"Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment", Review of Economic Dynamics, 44, 244-268, 2022.
"The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(4), 953-987, 2022.
"A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China", Vol 61, China Economic Review, June 2020.
Inflation, Energy Prices, and Macroeconomy:
"A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks" (with Lutz Kilian), forthcoming: Energy Economics. (Media coverage: Barron's)
"Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37(5), 867-881, 2022. (Media coverage: The Economist)
"The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23" (with Lutz Kilian) , forthcoming: Energy Economics.
"Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery" (with Lutz Kilian and Nikos Nomikos), International Journal of Central Banking, 19(1), 417-450, 2023. (VoxEU)
"Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates" (with Lutz Kilian), forthcoming: Journal of International Money and Finance.
"The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models" (with Lutz Kilian), Advances in Econometrics, 45B, 65-95, 2023.
"A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf", (With Lutz Kilian and Nikos Nomikos), Energy Journal, 44(5), 75-93, 2023.
"Does Drawing down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 673-691, 2020.
"Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 130-140, 2020.
"Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 54-78, November 2018. (VoxEU)
"Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?" (with Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian), Energy Journal, 39, SI2, 117-137, 2018.
"Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis" (with Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(3), 562-580, April 2018. (VoxEU)