Research

Working Papers

"Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of  Social Networks", Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics. 

"Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand" (with Lutz Kilian), forthcoming: Journal of Public Economics.

"Oil Price Shocks and Inflation" (with Lutz Kilian), prepared for Handbook of Inflation.

"Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity during the COVID-19 Pandemic" (with Katya Kartashova)

"Multiplier Effects of Federal Disaster-Relief Spending: Evidence from U.S. States and Households"

"Oil Supply Shock Redux?" (with Lutz Kilian)


Publications

Mortgage, Consumer Credit, and Housing:

"How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers" (with Katya Kartashova), forthcoming: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. (Media coverage: Axios News; Financial Post)

"Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment", Review of Economic Dynamics, 44, 244-268, 2022.

"The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(4), 953-987, 2022.

"A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China", Vol 61, China Economic Review, June 2020.


Inflation, Energy Prices, and Macroeconomy:

"A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks" (with Lutz Kilian), forthcoming: Energy Economics. (Media coverage: Barron's)

"Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37(5), 867-881, 2022. (Media coverage: The Economist)

"The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23" (with Lutz Kilian) , forthcoming: Energy Economics.

"Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery" (with Lutz Kilian and Nikos Nomikos), International Journal of Central Banking, 19(1), 417-450, 2023. (VoxEU)

"Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates" (with Lutz Kilian), forthcoming: Journal of International Money and Finance.

"The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models" (with Lutz Kilian), Advances in Econometrics, 45B, 65-95, 2023.

"A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf", (With Lutz Kilian and Nikos Nomikos), Energy Journal, 44(5), 75-93, 2023.

"Does Drawing down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?" (with Lutz Kilian),  Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 673-691, 2020.

"Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 130-140, 2020.

"Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities" (with Lutz Kilian), Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 54-78, November 2018. (VoxEU)

"Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?" (with Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian), Energy Journal, 39, SI2, 117-137, 2018. 

"Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis" (with Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(3), 562-580, April 2018. (VoxEU)