Other Publications
"Lower Interest Rates Don’t Necessarily Improve Housing Affordability" (with A. Richter), Dallas Fed Economics, April 2024. Media coverage: Central Banking; Better Dwelling; Seeking Alpha; National Mortgage Professional; MarketWatch
"U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Predominance Doesn’t Seem to Delay Impact of Fed Rate Hikes" (with P. Sagnanert), Dallas Fed Economics, January 2024. Media coverage: Central Banking
"Strength in Consumer Spending Does Not Necessarily Imply Low Probability of Recession" (with A. Richter), Dallas Fed Economics, January 2024.
"Existing Low-Rate Mortgages Blunt Impact of Recent Rate Surge", Dallas Fed Economics, December 2022.
"Are Rising Gasoline Prices the Main Determinant of the Surge in U.S. Consumer Price Inflation?" (with L. Kilian), Global Commodities Applied Research Digest, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities, Vol.7(2), Winter 2022.
"Inflation in Services Likely to Rise Further Despite Slowing Goods Prices" (with T. Atkinson), Dallas Fed Economics, September 2022. Media coverage: USA Today; Bloomberg; New York Post; Politico
"Rent Inflation Expected to Accelerate Then Moderate in Mid-2023" (with J. Dolmas), Dallas Fed Economics, August 2022. Media coverage: Wall Street Journal; Wall Street Journal Video; CNBC; MarketWatch; MNI Market News; Washington Examiner
"U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth" (with T. Atkinson and V. Wei), Dallas Fed Economics, August 2022. Media coverage: CBS News; MNI Market News
"Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23" (with L. Kilian), Dallas Fed Economics, November 2021.
"Surging House Prices Expected to Propel Rent Increases, Push up Inflation" (with J. Dolmas), Dallas Fed Economics, August 2021. Media coverage: Barron's; MNI Market News; CNBC; Brookings
"Container Shipping and US Business Cycle Fluctuations" (with L. Kilian and N. Nomikos), VoxEU, 15 July, 2021.
"A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations" (with L. Kilian), Dallas Fed Economics, September 2020.
"Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought" (with L. Kilian), Dallas Fed Economics, June 2020.
"CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase", Dallas Fed Economics, May 2020. Media coverage: Deloitte Insights
"How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy" (with L. Kilian and M. D. Plante), Dallas Fed Economics, May 2020. Media Coverage: S&P Global Market Intelligence
"The Relationship between Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates" (with L. Kilian), Global Commodities Applied Research Digest, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities, Vol.4(2), Winter 2019.
"How to Measure Global Real Activity when Modeling Commodity Prices ?" (with L. Kilian), Global Commodities Applied Research Digest, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities, Vol.4(1), Summer 2019.
"Why Did the 2014-16 Oil Price Decline Not Create a Surge in Economic Activity?" (with L. Kilian), Global Commodities Applied Research Digest, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities, Vol.3(1), Summer 2018.
"What Goes Up, Must Come Down: The Business Cycle in Global Commodity Markets" (with L. Kilian), VoxEU, November 9, 2017.
"Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting the Price of Oil?" (with C. Baumeister and L. Kilian), VoxEU, September 24, 2013.