Bakken Water Use and Impact

Summary

A model for groundwater allocation and management at the Bakken Shale inwestern North Dakota. The rapid expansion of unconventional oil and gas production in western North Dakota, a region rich in energy but scarce in water, has given birth to a novel water allocation system - water depots, to distribute a large quantity of freshwater for industrial uses in rural areas. The region's largest aquifer, the Fox Hills-Hell Creek (FH-HC) aquifer, is the sole reliable water source for livestock watering in rural North Dakota and Montana. However, there are growing concerns about the existing and potential water withdrawal from the FH-HC aquifer due to the large-scale water demand by the oil industry. It is imperative to understand the dynamics of the water depot-based water allocation system and its interactions with the underlying groundwater systems. This project will develop an integrated hydro-economic model to study the dynamics of the coupled water depot-groundwater system so that appropriate policy tools may be devised to manage the regional groundwater resources for long-term, sustainable use.

Findings

Impacts of Bakken Shale Oil Development on Regional Water Uses and Supply. The Bakken shale play in western North Dakota is one of the largest unconventional oilfields in the United States, but published research about impacts on the region's water resources is rare. In this study, besides examining North Dakota water management policies and activities, we also analyzed three datasets: the Bakken horizontal well completion data (2008‐2014), North Dakota permitted water consumption data (2000‐2014), and groundwater level and streamflow observations in western North Dakota (2000‐2014). We found from 2008 to 2014, the annual total industrial water uses for Bakken shale oil development ranged between 0.5 and 10% of statewide total consumptive water use. The percentage increases were between 3.0 and 40% within the Bakken oil production region. The increased population of temporary oilfield service workers contributed additional domestic water use, which was equivalent to ~15% of annual industrial water use for the shale oil development in the Bakken. Despite being in a semiarid region, the impact of Bakken development on regional water supply was limited because the water in the Bakken was adaptively managed and the region received on average over 20% more precipitation than normal during 2008‐2014. Of the 15 glaciofluvial aquifers under study, 12 have seen water levels increasing or unchanged and the water levels for the remaining 3 aquifers have decreased. Published by the Journal of American Water Resources Association

Using Agent-Based Modeling for Water Resources Management in the Bakken Region. Most agent-based model (ABM) applications in water resources management and planning relied on hypothetical systems for method testing and policy analysis. Although these ABM studies may help to provide guidance for evaluating or designing water management policies in an exploratory way, there still exists a gap in translating the numerical results from hypothetical studies into the implementation of water policies in the real world. This study was aimed at filling this gap. In this paper, we developed an ABM for the water-depot based water allocation system that has emerged to distribute a large quantity of freshwater for shale oil development activities at the Bakken (North Dakota, USA). The ABM was then calibrated against recorded annual water uses from 2007 to 2014 before it was used to evaluate water policies and to devise effective water management strategies in the Bakken region. Our analysis shows that the authorization of the Western Area Water Supply Project, implementation of the “In-Lieu-Of Irrigation” program, and an accelerated issuance of temporary surface water permits were the most effective water policies adopted during the recent oil boom in terms of mitigating water shortage for hydraulic fracturing and limiting permit violations. The ideal range of the proposed permit-to-use ratio in the Bakken region should be 3.0 to 7.0. The use of agent-based modeling for water management in the Bakken region would help other policymakers and managers to develop water policies to address increased industrial water demands associated with the unconventional oil and gas development in their regions. Published by Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

A GIS-Enabled Agent-Based Model of the Water Allocation System for Bakken Shale Oil Development in Western North Dakota. An integrated modeling framework was developed to simulate groundwater level change under the dramatic increase of hydraulic fracturing water use in the Bakken Shale oil production area. The framework combines the agent-based model (ABM) with the Fox Hills-Hell Creek (FH-HC) groundwater model. In development of the ABM, institution theory is used to model the regulation policies from the North Dakota State Water Commission while the way social structure emerges from the behavior of competing individual water businesses is modeled using evolutionary programming and cognitive maps. Evolutionary programming allows individuals to select an appropriate strategy when annually applying for potential water use permits whereas cognitive maps endow agent’s ability and willingness to compete for more water sales. Each agent has their influence boundaries, and restrains their competitive behavior toward their neighbors but does not extend that same restraint to non-neighbors. The decision-making process is constructed and parameterized with both qualitative and quantitative information, i.e., knowledge gained from surveys with stakeholders and empirical water use data. By linking institution theory, evolutionary programming, and cognitive maps, our approach addresses a higher complexity of the real decision making process, and the approach is a new exploration for modeling the dynamics of Coupled Human and Nature System. After integrating ABM with FH-HC model, drought and limited water accessibility scenarios are simulated to predict FH-HC ground water level changes in the future. The integrated modeling framework of ABM and FH-HC model can be used to support making scientifically sound policies in water allocation and management. Presented at the 2017 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting at New Orleans

Outputs

Three datasets were compiled: (1) Bakken horizontal well completion, (2) permitted water uses, and (3) groundwater observation. The raw data are available upon request.
More than 20 interviews were conducted with oil operators, government officials and water depot owners. The interview results are available upon request.
One GIS-enabled agent-based model for the Bakken CHANS was developed using ArcGIS 10.2.2 Engine. The model executable and source codes are available upon request.

Broader Impacts

Positing the Bakken region in western North Dakota as a CHANS, in which the water management and allocation systems (the human components) and the surface‐water and groundwater systems (the natural components) interact with each other, this study assessed the hydraulic fracturing impacts on regional water resources and examined how the unprecedented hydraulic fracturing water demand had affected the State's adaptive management of the limited water resources in the region through changing regulations, policies, and law enforcement. Although the Bakken shale oil play has its distinctive features, our findings on the water resources impacts in the Bakken help shed light on future regional water impact analyses for other unconventional plays in the U.S. and around the world. The analysis of the current water management strategies and policies adopted in western North Dakota will assist and inform other policy makers and water practitioners to develop adaptive management strategies and policies to address increased industrial and community water demands associated with unconventional oil and gas development in their regions.

In the media

Fargo Forum: http://www.inforum.com/news/4360260-study-water-use-nd-oil-patch-increased-almost-20-fold-seven-years

Bismarck Tribune: http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/study-water-use-in-n-d-oil-patch-increased-almost/article_f88d5daf-c488-5621-93b8-673dd997a25c.html

Grand Forks Herald: http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/4360265-study-water-use-nd-oil-patch-increased-almost-20-fold-seven-years

The Dickinson Press: http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/news/4360265-study-water-use-nd-oil-patch-increased-almost-20-fold-seven-years

Western Dakota Energy Association: http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Here-are-the-week-s-top-North-Dakota-energy-stories-.html?soid=1102657032033&aid=Pu4VU41s3Oc

Addressing North Dakota Legislators

On February 21, 2018, Dr. Zhulu Lin was invited to provide a testimonial to the Water Topics Overview Committee of the 65th North Dakota Legislative Assembly on water use and reuse for the Bakken Shale oil development.

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