Working Papers/manuscripts
"Incidence and Effects of University Student Absences for Bereavement and Illness" Harris, Timothy F and C. Lockwood Reynolds
Abstract: Despite the potential for illness or bereavement to significantly disrupt education, there is little evidence about the frequency and impact of absences in higher education. Using administrative data from a large public university in the United States, we analyze the incidence of student absences and their effects on grades, retention, and on-time graduation. We document significant heterogeneity in the use of university-excused absences across gender, race/ethnicity, and income levels. This finding provides insights into how students use policies to mitigate the adverse effects of absences. Furthermore, estimates show that these events decrease the likelihood of the student returning the next semester particularly for first-year students. These effects do not vary across student characteristics. Among students who return to the institution, the absences lower same term GPA but do not have effects on future GPA. The same semester effects appear to be larger for students from less advantaged backgrounds. These findings are helpful for policymakers seeking to mitigate both disparities in the use of institutional policies designed to help students and the adverse effects of absences on educational outcomes.
Manuscript: drive.google.com/file/d/1ysPfAJP0Zb6VNBn-7Ax4vMZ281iDMUOJ/view?usp=sharing
"Racial Disparities in Costs of Employment Protection: Evidence from Exceptions to Employment-at-Will in the United States"
Abstract: State court decisions from the 1970s to 1990s provided exceptions to the long-standing employment-at-will doctrine in the United States. Prior research has suggested that these decisions may have increased employment costs, decreased employment, decreased re-employment transitions and increased the use of temporary help workers. This paper shows that these average effects mask important differences across racial and ethnic groups. Using data from the Current Population Survey and difference-in-difference methods, this paper finds that negative labor market effects disproportionately fall on minorities. Minorities experience large employment declines and earnings losses from these exceptions while white individuals experience smaller negative, and sometimes even positive, effects. Further evidence shows that negative effects are particularly large for younger and less-educated minorities. Finally, the exceptions may have increased occupational segregation as there are negative employment effects for minorities in historically White occupations and in occupations with high levels of post-hire training.
Manuscript: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1m4g_6XIq7PJEq7JlvUuhOdXRI9JUnzHX/view?usp=sharing
"How are Institutions Positioned on the Brink of the Enrollment Cliff?: Evidence from Ohio" Boyd-Swan, Casey and C. Lockwood Reynolds
Abstract: Since 2018, institutions of higher education have been aware of the ``enrollment cliff'' which refers to expected declines in future enrollment. This paper attempts to describe how prepared institutions in Ohio are for this future by looking at trends leading up to the anticipated decline. Using IPEDS data from 2012-2022, we analyze trends in enrollment, revenues, debt and staffing across Ohio's nine largest public universities. We find significant variation in how institutions have evolved over this period. Our analysis suggests Ohio serves as an illustrative case study for examining institutional preparedness, as it represents a ``worst-case scenario'' across multiple dimensions - from projected enrollment declines to state funding constraints. The paper concludes by considering implications for higher education nationally and suggesting directions for future research on institutional responses to demographic shifts.
Manuscript: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1D2m4fp-x3KPLgHf5VLYFW8vX8Al5xYUh/view?usp=sharing
"The Nonequivalence of College Equivalents" (with Dionissi Aliprantis and Daniel Carroll)
Abstract: This paper shows that labor market outcomes decline with the age at bachelor's degree (BA) attainment for white males. When a BA is attained before age 24, its premium is more than three times that of a BA premium attained at age 24 or later. This difference is not driven by selection: 90 percent of the association remains after adjusting for pre-college factors. Initial occupations one year after BA completion are similar whether an individual graduates on-time or not. At age 35, however, on-time graduates are in occupations with higher expected income and education. Our findings are consistent with a job-ladder story in which late-BA attainers do not fully capture the earnings premium of their traditional counterparts. This is either because their pre-BA work experience is a weak substitute for the skills required in BA-level jobs or because the negative signals of late attainment counteract any positive effect of pre-BA experience.
Manuscript: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15ezJiURMrl8hKRZtdO5scnHYRYL7iB8Q/view?usp=sharing
Work in Progress
Spillover Effects of On-campus Students (with Kiara Carter)
Dormitory Locations and Student Success
The Effect of Political Representation on Local Economic Growth
Spatial Sorting Over Time (with Roberto Pinheiro and Christoph Hedtrich)