The idea of a Theory of Change
A Theory of Change links outcomes to activities to explain HOW and WHY A desired change comes about.
We can use a Theory of Change to explore the underlying assumptions of a proposed activity.
We can use a Theory of Change to explain the change that you think will happen and what you intend to do to make it work.
A Theory of Change requires justification at each step. You have to articulate a hypothesis about why an action will cause change.
A Theory of Change requires justification at each step along the path of change.
There are a whole set of approaches and methodologies to describe a Theory of Change.
The six key findings of Craig Venters
A Theory of Change approach can create space for critical reflection, but there is a danger that this is an illusory process.
'Theory of Change can create the illusion of serious reflection by being a superficial process of critical thought, where people who engage with the theories (donors as well as implementers) do not actually reflect sufficiently on how power dynamics change in practice and how local people see change happen.'
Personalities matter—they change whether a Theory of Change is seen as a tool of communication, learning, or a method of securing funding, or some combination of these.
"changing an organisation’s approach may require considerable personal and organisational investment (and potentially risk) in convincing all staff to critically analyse interventions."
Power relations between donors and implementers in the international development industry discourage critical reflection and therefore constrain Theory of Change approaches
"The tendency to view a Theory of Change as predominantly an upward accountability mechanism considerably constrains attempts to learn from the process. While using Theory of Change as a way to encourage critical reflection may be the most useful and important approach to take, as Ramalingam notes, “the knowledge and learning agenda is just one among many voices pressing for change and adaptation within development agencies”
A Theory of Change approach needs to focus on process rather than product, uncertainty rather than results, iterative development of hypotheses rather than static theories, and learning rather than accountability.
"Theories of Change can be part of a challenge to the more negative effects of results-based performance management systems; but not if they are dominated by preferred, linear cause-and-effect models of management that are often inappropriate for the kind of changes development organisations are trying to achieve."
Politically expedient Theories of Change may be useful, but are unlikely to encourage critical reflection
The political context in which the organisation is operating may limit or open up space for deeper critical reflection.
If the aim is to encourage critical reflection and learning, the use of Theories of Change should be supported only so long as they remain useful in that respect
Carlsson and Wohlgemuth identify five key issues obstructing system-wide learning in development: political constraints; the unequal nature of aid relations; problems internal to the organisation of the aid agencies; organisations and capacities on the recipient side; and the sources and quality of knowledge. This study has reaffirmed many of these
In other words, Theory of Change can be force for good or it can be a bureaucratic burden. It is no panacea.
References
Here are the documents that I have found most useful to understand the ideas behind 'Theory of Change'. This simply scratches the surface, but I had to begin somewhere.
150427 Firetail theory-of-change.pptx: download below
This comes from a UK based consultancy called Firetail (http://www.firetail.co.uk/) that I have talked to. The presentation is short and to the point.
150519 Comic Relief_ToC.pdf: download below
This is a paper called "Theory of Change Review: A report commissioned by Comic Relief" by Cathy James dated September 2011
I found this very helpful in giving a view of the uses of Theory of Change. It is again direct and to the point.&
150423 Theory of Change Craig Valters.pdf: download below
This paper is called "Theories of Change in International Development: Communication, Learning or Accountability?" by Craig Valters dated August 2014.
This is an analysis of the uses (and abuses) of Theory of Change and is harder work than the first two references. But it feels as though the author has gone and talked to users of Theory of Change and found the problems associated with the approach as well as the benefits
http://www.theoryofchange.org/
I have also consulted the webiste for the 'Center for the Theory of Change'. They have an online tool to build models of Theory of Change that looks useful, but I haven't yet got far enough along to explore the tools with a specific example.