Here is a process for developing a Theory of Change that I have taken from Firetail (with their permission).
and here is a framework for a Theory of Change, once again taken from Firetail.
The structure at the heart of the Theory of Change is:
The Preconditions are the things that need to happen for the outcome to be true.
The Interventions are the things that we do to affect the Preconditions.
The Indicator measures how far towards the Precondition that 'they' have moved.
Here is an example:
Initial Thoughts on Constellation Theory of Change
Long Term Outcome
"Communities take ownership of the change that they want to see."
Strategy
Communities change themselves.
We do not change communities
We accompany companies on their road to their dream.
We learn-and-share together.
Preconditions, Interventions and Indicators
When we take the steps in CLCP, we might have the following:
Precondition: "We understand the power of dreams. We have our dream."
Intervention: Where do we want to be?: Build the Dream
Indicator: A dream in text and/or words. Enthusiasm, Joy and Pride. Engagement in group dream.
this step leads to:
Precondition: "We understand the skills that we need to reach our dream."
Intervention: Where are we now?: Surfacing the practises.
Indicator: A set of practises that will form the basis of the Self Assessment framework.
this step leads to:
Precondition: "We recognise our skills. We recognise where we need to improve our skills to move towards our dream."
Intervention: Where are we now?: Self Assessment
Indicator: A completed Self Assessment framework with practises based on the dream. Selection of 3 priority practises that will focus activities for the next defined period (e.g. 6 months). Consensus reached on Self Assessment after broad ranging discussion leads to consensus.
this step leads to:
Precondition: "We know what we are going to do. We can do this."
Intervention: What are we going to do?: Action Plan. (Petite Action Faisable/Small Doable Actions)
Indicator: An action plan with specific tasks, people and times. The real indicator is action based on the Action Plan.
this step leads to:
Precondition: "We have made progress. We are proud of what we have done. We have done this ourselves.
Intervention: Where did we get to? What did we learn? What can we share?: Learning Festival and Knowledge Asset
Indicator: We now return to our dream and start again.
This is a good start but there is more