published papers
"Billionaire Politicians: A Global Perspective" (with Daniel Krcmaric and Stephen Nelson). Perspectives on Politics, 2023, Online First.
We introduce an original dataset of formal political participation for over 2,000 individuals included in the Forbes Billionaires List. We find that billionaire politicians are a surprisingly common phenomenon: Over 11% of the world’s billionaires have held or sought political office. Even compared to other elite groups known for producing politicians from their ranks, this is a high rate of political participation. Moreover, billionaires focus their political ambitions on influential positions, have a strong track record of winning elections, and lean to the right ideologically. We also document substantial cross-national variation: A country’s number of billionaire politicians is not simply a product of its total number of billionaires but is instead related to regime type. Specifically, billionaires formally enter the political sphere at a much higher rate in autocracies than in democracies. We conclude by discussing the normative implications of our findings and outlining a new research agenda on billionaire politicians.
"Biases in Elections with Well-Informed Voters: Evidence from Public Voting for Football Awards" (with Nolan Kopkin). Social Science Quarterly, 2022, 103(7): 1551-1571 (link).
Objectives: How much does group membership influence voting behavior? This article adds to existing work by considering a novel context where voting is public and voters are well-informed. Methods: The article analyzes public votes in a prominent award for the best football player in the world. It uses ordered probit regressions to assess the extent to which votes by players, coaches, and journalists are related to national, regional, cultural, racial, and religious affinities between voters and candidates controlling for measures of player performance and celebrity. Results: The estimates indicate that while player performance does matter, a number of group-based characteristics continue to influence voting. Some of these effects appear to be rooted in incentives—a tendency to vote for co-nationals and teammates—but others—such as a tendency to vote based on geographical, racial, and religious similarities—are rooted more in group affinities. Conclusions: The analysis provides relatively strong support for the group-based theory of democracy championed by Achen and Bartels as opposed to a theory of democracy founded on individual rational choice. The specific case considered suggests that more attention should be given to the composition of juries that choose the winners of prizes.
"Gender Gaps in Responsiveness" (with Nolan Kopkin). Political Research Quarterly, 2023, 76(3). (link)
Gender gaps have been documented in numerous areas of American politics, but one area that has not yet been fully explored is responsiveness, the link between citizen preferences and public policies. Equal responsiveness to the preferences of citizens is a central aspect of democratic representation. This article extends work on income gaps in responsiveness to gender gaps. Specifically, it considers whether women’s preferences are less likely than men’s preferences to be adopted as policy in the US. It uses data on preferences and policy adoptions from 1981 to 2002 created by Gilens. The main finding is a large gender gap in responsiveness. The gap is similar in size to the one between rich and poor, it is particularly large in policies related to the use of force, and it did not narrow over the two decades studied. These results show that inequalities beyond social class deserve significant attention in the study of democratic responsiveness and that aspects of bias against women in politics remain underexplored.
"National Attachments and Good Citizenship: A Double-Edged Sword" (with Lenka Drazanova). Political Studies (link).
The recent popularity of nationalist movements bears witness to the continued power of national feeling in politics. This article considers the potential relationship between different kinds of national attachments and what we call active and allegiant citizenship—support for democracy, community participation, and prosocial behavior. We analyze these relationships using data from two waves of the European Values Study. We find that a set of attachments often called civic nationalism—including patriotism, national identity, and respect for one’s country’s institutions—are connected with better citizenship on virtually all of our outcomes, whereas ethnic nationalism is frequently connected with worse citizenship. These associations, however, tend to be weaker in the postcommunist states which have a different experience with both nationalism and democracy. The results suggest that national feeling can be a double-edged sword for citizenship.
"Studying Leaders and Elites: The Personal Biography Approach" (with Daniel Krcmaric and Stephen Nelson). Annual Review of Political Science (link).
The last two decades have seen a revival in work that takes the role of individual leaders and elites seriously. This article surveys new research that explores how biographical factors influence their behavior. We call this literature the “personal biography approach” to political leadership. Our survey first lays out four mechanisms through which biographical characteristics might impact leader behavior. We then discuss the main state-of-the-art findings, grouping them according to socializing experiences (e.g., education, military service, and prior occupation) and ascriptive traits (e.g., gender, race, and ethnicity). We also consider the methodological problems, especially endogeneity and selection effects, that pose challenges to this style of research. We conclude with an assessment of gaps in the literature and provide suggestions for future work in the biographical vein.
"Consensus and Dissensus in Comparative Politics." International Political Science Review (link).
Are comparative political scientists divided over the goals, methods, and results of their field? This article attempts to answer this question, drawing on an original survey of US-based political scientists. The main conclusion is that there is relative consensus on the goals of research—comparativists favor broad generalizations and causal inference—but there is also acceptance of a variety of methodological approaches, both qualitative and quantitative, in pursuing this goal. Comparativists, however, show less agreement on substantive findings in the areas of democracy and democratic politics, economy and society, and political institutions. Interestingly, generational differences are relatively infrequent, but gender differences on issues such as rational choice and causal inference are more prominent, possibly contributing to gendered citation bias. The findings suggest that comparative politics may not have accumulated a large amount of agreed-upon knowledge, but that there is substantial agreement on the path forward.
"Czech Billionaires as Politicians." Problems of Post-Communism (link).
This paper analyzes the very rich Czechs who have stood for elected office. It identifies two ideal types – one motivated more by business interests and another more by duty and hobbyism. These motivations are related to the clarity of their ideology, prior interest in politics, and the kind of political career they pursue. More generally, the recent emergence of billionaires in Czech politics appears to be connected with the rise in corruption and public dissatisfaction with elites and has in turn encouraged populist tendencies.
"Millionaires and the Public in Czech Politics." Post-Soviet Affairs, 2018, 34(6), 2018, 353-366 (link).
This article relies on a unique survey of Czech millionaires and the general public to probe the nature and extent of the differences in opinions between these two groups and their correspondence with public policy. Its main finding is that millionaires are substantially more right wing than the public on economic issues and somewhat more internationalist on foreign affairs, though a number of areas of agreement can be found as well, particularly assessments of the problems facing the country. Most surprisingly, the opinions of the public appear more likely to correspond with policy than those of millionaires. These findings have important implications for the rise of populism and the quality of democracy in the Czech Republic.
"Effort, Incentives, and Culture in the Czech Senate." Forthcoming in Journal of Legislative Studies, 24(2), 2018, 197-210 (link)
This paper uses the natural experiment of seat allocation in the first Czech Senate to assess the effects of incentives on legislative effort. Contrary to previous work using similar setups, the incentive of longer terms has little effect on the effort levels of legislators. This may reflect the parliamentary context, the newness of the Czech Senate, or most interestingly political culture.
"Czech Democracy in the Eyes of Czech Political Scientists." East European Politics, 33(4), 2017, 562-572 (link).
This paper surveys six recent Czech language books on the state of Czech democracy. The books are largely critical and identify four major problems: ineffectiveness, corruption, apolitical politics, and economic stagnation. The authors variously attribute these problems to institutions, culture, and public policy and accordingly recommend changes in these areas. While most of these claims ring true, lacking is both a consideration of positive qualities and empirical proof of the extent of these problems or the efficacy of the solutions.
"Democracy and Democratisation in Post-communist Europe." In Adam Fagan and Petr Kopecky, eds. Routledge Handbook of East European Politics. (Routledge, 2017) (link).
"Czech Exceptionalism". In Balik, et al. Czech Politics: From West to East and Back Again. (Barbara Burdich, 2017) (link).
"Five Ways of Looking at Czech Politics". In Balik, et al. Czech Politics: From West to East and Back Again. (Barbara Burdich, 2017) (link).
"The Deconsolidation of Democracy and Democratic Quality." In Holzer and Mares, eds. Challenges to Democracies in East Central Europe. (Routledge, 2016) (link)
"How Stable and Reasonable Is Postcommunist Public Opinion: The Case of the Czech Republic". Europe-Asia Studies, 2014, 66(6), 925-944 (link).
The quality of democracy depends on both politicians and citizens. While most attention has focused on politicians, this paper looks lat citizens. There has been some scepticism about whether the postcommunist public is prepared to rule their countries. The legacies of communism and the rigours of the transition may have produced citizens whose opinions are unstable and ill-informed and therefore a poor basis for democratic policy making. This paper tests this proposition by considering the nature of public opinion in the Czech Republic. Its main conclusion is that postcommunist public opinion is more reasonable than conventional wisdom suggests. Opinions on most policies change slowly if at all and when they do change the changes are prompted more by gradual shifts in mores than by political manipulation. This suggests that citizens in the region are prepared to have a significant voice in policy making.
"What Americanists Don't Know about American Politics: Ten Things We Know about Comparative Politics". The Forum, 2013, 11(2), 95-114 (link).
This paper follows Noel's (2010) attempt to introduce journalists and practitioners to findings from professional political science which are relevant to the interpretive challenge of American politics but with which they may not be familiar. It extends his work by focusing on comparative politics this time - the domestic politics of foreign countries - and it argues that American politics might be interpreted differently if it were analyzed through the lens of comparison.
"Do Electoral Laws Affect Women's Representation" (with Jason Seawright and Jennifer Cyr). Comparative Political Studies, 2013, 46(12), 1555-1581 (link).
Numerous studies have found that proportional electoral rules significantly increase women’s representation in national parliaments relative to majoritarian and mixed rules. These studies, however, suffer from serious methodological problems including the endogeneity of electoral laws, poor measures of cultural variables, and neglect of time trends. This paper attempts to produce more accurate estimates of the effect of electoral rules on women’s representation by using within-country comparisons of electoral rule changes and bicameral systems as well as matching methods. The main finding is that the effect of electoral laws is not as strong as in previous studies and varies across cases. The policy implication is that changes in electoral laws are unlikely to provide a quick and consistent fix to the problem of low women’s representation.
"The Quality of Post-communist Democracy". In White, Lewis, and Batt, eds. Developments in Central and East European Politics. (Duke UP, 2013).
"Policy Responsiveness in Post-Communist Europe: Public Preferences and Market Reforms" (with Byung-Yeon Kim). British Journal of Political Science, 2011, 41(4), 819-839 (link).
This article assesses the degree of policy responsiveness in the new democracies of post-communist Europe. Panel data on economic reform and public opinion show that public support for reform has a large and significant effect on reform progress. Where public support for reform is high, reform proceeds more quickly. This effect remains strong even when controlling for the endogeneity of public support and other economic and political causes of reform, though it is strongest in more democratic countries. These results suggest that economic reform may be better promoted by persuading the public of the beneficial consequences of reform than by trying to insulate reformers from the public, and that the quality of democracy in the region may be higher than commonly perceived.
"The Politics of Healthcare Reform in Postcommunist Europe: The Importance of Access." Journal of Public Policy, 2009, 29(3), 305-325 (link).
Why do countries move from public to private financing of healthcare? This paper explores this issue by looking at the divergent reform trajectories of three postcommunist countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. While existing accounts emphasize veto points to explain changes in healthcare systems, the present analysis finds that moves towards private financing can be better explained by differences in access to the policymaking arm of the state. Specifically, a penetrable single-party government and weak bureaucratic capacities allow physicians to capture the reform process and implement their preferred policies. The results suggest that scholars of health policy should focus more attention on the actors seeking change and their access to policy makers.
"The Politics of Constitutional Amendment in Eastern Europe." Constitutional Political Economy, 2009, 20, 99-117 ( link).
This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of constitutional amendments in Eastern Europe. Its results challenge the conventional wisdom that constitutional change is a consequence of institutions and that major changes will increase executive powers and limit rights. It finds that the political and social context rather than institutions is the main cause of amendments. These amendments moreover tend to reduce the power of executives and strengthen guarantees of human rights. The paper attributes these results to the particular circumstances of the postcommunist transition.
“Hyperaccountability: Economic Voting in Eastern Europe.” Electoral Studies, 2008, 27(3), 533-546 ( link).
Are citizens in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe able to hold politicians accountable at elections? The inheritance of communism, disengaged citizens, economic flux, and inchoate party systems might be expected to weaken accountability. Looking at the results of 34 elections in 10 Central and Eastern European countries, this paper finds instead a phenomenon that it calls hyperaccountability. Incumbents are held accountable for economic performance, particularly for unemployment, but this accountability distinguishes not between vote losses and gains, but between large and small losses. This result is significant in several respects. The evidence for economic voting restores some faith in the ability of voters to control their representatives in new democracies. The consistency of punishment in the region, however, may mitigate some of the benefits of economic voting. If incumbents know they will lose, then they may decide to enrich themselves when in power rather than produce good policies.
“Communist Successor Parties and Coalition Formation” (with James Druckman). Legislative Studies Quarterly 2007, XXXII(1): 5-31 ( link).
One of the most distinctive features of new democracies is the presence of political parties associated with the old, repressive regime. This article investigates whether or not the Eastern European variant of these parties, which we call communist successor parties (CSPs), has affected coalition politics. It finds that CSPs do have significant effects on the dynamics of coalition formation. CSPs are less likely than other parties to be included in governing coalitions; coalitions that include CSPs are more likely to be oversized (that is, to include superfluous parties); and CSPs that make it into government are penalized, insofar as they receive less than their fair share of governing portfolios. We attribute these results to the salience of the regime divide—the affective dislike of many citizens for the legacies of communism. Our results extend research on coalition behavior to Eastern European contexts and show how affective dislike combined with vote-seeking motivations can affect governing behavior.
“Measuring Portfolio Salience in Eastern European Parliamentary Democracies” (with James Druckman). European Journal of Political Research 2007, 47: 101-134 ( link).
This article presents the results of an expert survey of 14 Eastern European countries on the subject of portfolio salience. Respondents provided ratings of the relative value of all ministerial portfolios in these countries over the years 1990–2002.The ratings are unique in the study of Eastern Europe and appear to possess the characteristics of comprehensiveness and reliability. Comparing the results with a similar survey ofWestern Europe indicates that individual portfolios are rated nearly identically in both regions. Some significant differences, however, emerge when we look separately at more advanced and less advanced Eastern European countries. Various suggestions are made for how scholars can use these new data in future work.
"What Kind of Democracy Is Emerging in Eastern Europe." Post-Soviet Affairs 2006, 22(1): 37-64 ( link).
An expert on political institutions analyzes the patterns of democracy emerging in Eastern Europe by extending Lijphart’s study of democratic patterns to 10 new democracies. Analyzing established democracies, Lijphart found that 10 variables capturing the type and functioning of institutions cluster on two clearly separate dimensions. Distribution of these variables is used to characterize the new democracies of Eastern Europe. The causes of institutional choice and the reasons institutions produce divergent effects are examined in the context of these Eastern European patterns. The results also challenge the use of certain measures of institutions without consideration of the party system.
“The Quality of Democracy: A Review Essay.” Comparative Politics 2005, 37(3): 357-376 (link)
“Context and Coalition Bargaining: Comparing Portfolio Allocation in Eastern and Western Europe” (with James Druckman). Party Politics 2005, 11(5): 535-555 (link)
Eastern European countries have adopted parliamentary institutions that resemble those in the West. This enables researchers to evaluate the effects of institutions in contrasting contexts. In this article, we study the impact of context on the allocation of government portfolios. We find that the distinct economic and cultural situation in less advanced Eastern European countries has a pronounced effect on coalition-bargaining over portfolios. In contrast, more advanced Eastern European countries exhibit patterns of allocation that match those found in the West. We discuss the implications of our results for studies of institutions and coalition theory.
“The State of Socialism: A Note on Terminology.” Slavic Review 2004, 63(2): 349-366 (link)
Scholars use a variety of terms to refer to the regimes of the former Soviet bloc. Some prefer communist, while others use socialist or state socialist. In this article, Andrew Roberts argues that communism is the better choice. Using socialism or state socialism to refer to these regimes stretches the concept unnecessarily, making one label refer to two regimes with little in common. This conceptual stretching has two negative consequences. First, it impedes efficient scholarly communication. Second, it impoverishes political debate by diminishing the achievements of democratic socialists. A solution to this problem is to use the term communist to refer to Soviet-style regimes.
“Demythologizing the Czech Opposition Agreement.” Europe-Asia Studies 2003, 55(8): 1273-1303 (link)
The opposition agreement was a deal struck in 1998 between the two largest Czech political parties. In exchange for parliamentary posts and policy promises, the Civic Democratic Party allowed the Social Democratic Party to take office as a minority government. Most observers of the Czech political scene have judged the opposition agreement to be a product of an immature political culture and to have had negative effects on democracy and policy. In fact, the government formed for many of the same reasons as minority governments in Western Europe. Further, the agreement did not have the detrimental effects on democracy and policy that are commonly attributed to it.
“The Politics and Anti-Politics of Nostalgia.” East European Politics and Societies 2002, 16(3): 764-809 (link)
In recent years the Czech Republic has witnessed a wave of nostalgia for the popular culture of communism. This nostalgia has been attacked by some members of the country’s cultural elite. This paper documents these two phenomena and attempts to explain them. It finds that the nostalgia and the negative reaction to it are connected with the legacies of the late communist regime known as normalization. This regime produced both a consumer-oriented pop culture that remains appealing to Czechs and a small, but hardened group of dissidents determined to fight against relics of the old system.
"A Comparative Study of Housing Reforms in Eastern Europe." In Stuart Lowe and Sasha Tsenkova, eds. Housing Change in East and Central Europe: 10 Years of Transition (Ashgate, 2003) (link).