Research

Publications

• “Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France,” (with Frederique Savignac, Erwan Gautier and Yuriy Gorodnichenko), This version: March 2023. PDF. Accepted by Journal of European Economic Association.

• “The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Ethan M.L. McClure), This version: March 2023. PDF. Accepted by Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 

• “The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending,” (with Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny and Michael Weber), This version: December 2022: PDF. Accepted at The American Economic Review.

• “The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Saten Kumar), This version: July 2022. PDF. 2023. Econometrica 91(4), 1297-1332. (Link)

• “Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of U.S. Firms,” (with Bernardo Candia, Michael Weber and Yuriy Gorodnichenko). 2023. AEA Papers and Proceedings 113(May): 52-55. PDF. 

• Forward Guidance and Household Expectations” (with Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber), 2023. Journal of European Economic Association 21(5): 2131-2171. Link.

• “Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Edward Knotek, and Raphael Schoenle), 2023. JPE Macroeconomics 1(2): 403-446. PDF. 

• “How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial” (with Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Maarten van Rooij), PDF. 2023. AEJ Macroeconomics 15(3): 109-152. Link.

• “The Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms” (with Bernardo Candia and Yuriy Gorodnichenko). 2023. Handbook of Economic Expectations, edited by Rudiger Bachmann, Giorgio Topa and Wilbert van der Klaauw. PDF.

• “The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants and Implications," (with Francesco D'Acunto, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber). 2022. Journal of Economic Perspectives 36(3): 157-184. PDF. 

• “The Expected, Perceived and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the Covid19 Pandemic” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber). 2022. IMF Economic Review 71: 326-368. PDF. 

• “Does Policy Communication during Covid Work?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), 2022. International Journal of Central Banking 18(1): 3-39. PDF. 

• “Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), 2022. Journal of Political Economy 130(6): 1537-1584. (Link).

• “No Firm Is An Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Expectations” (with Philippe Andrade, Erwan Gautier, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2022. Journal of Monetary Economics 125(January): 40-56. Link.

• “Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar and Jane Ryngaert), 2021. Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(3): 1387-1446. Link.

• “Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas), 2021. AEJ Macroeconomics 13(4): 449-482. Link.  

•  “Communication and the Beliefs of Agents” (with Bernardo Candia and Yuriy Gorodnichenko). PDF. in Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy, Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2020. Link. 

• “Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Saten Kumar and Mathieu Pedemonte), 2020. Journal of International Economics 124(May): 1-27. Link. Winner of the 2022 Calvo Award for International Macroeconomics. 

• “Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Tiziano Ropele), 2020. Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, 165-219. Link. 

• “Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon), 2020. Journal of European Economics Association 18: 2922-2971. Link.  

• “Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity” (joint with Ron Alquist and Saroj Bhattarai), 2019. Journal of Monetary Economics, 112(June), 41-56. Link. 

• “Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Mauricio Ulate), 2019. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 109, 465-469. Link.  

• “The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Mauricio Ulate), 2018. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2018(Fall), 343-434. Link.      

• Response to “The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Comment” by Gagnon, López-Salido and Sockin with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gee Hee Hong, PDF, American Economic Review 109(2019), 314-324. Link.    

• “How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Saten Kumar), 2018. American Economic Review 108(9), 2671-2713. Link.   

• “Innocent Bystanders?  Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Lorenz Kueng, and John Silvia), 2017.  Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 88 (June), 70-89. Link. Code and data are here. 

• “The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Rupal Kamdar), 2018. Journal of Economic Literature 56(4), 1447-1491. Link.  

• “Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation” (with Marc Dordal-i-Carreras, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Johannes Wieland), 2016. Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 8, 497-520.  Link. 

• “Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence From Firms in New Zealand” (with Hassan Afrouzi, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Saten Kumar). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2015(Fall), 151-225.    

• “Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. American Economic Review 105(8), 2644-2678.  Link.   

• “Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine 223, 6-21. Link. 

• “The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular, and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gee Hee Hong), 2015. American Economic Review 105(3), 993-1029. Link. 

• “Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2015. AEJ: Macroeconomics 7(1), 197-232. Link. 

• “Amerisclerosis?  The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas), September 2013. Prepared for Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2013 Conference.   

• “The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn), 2014. Journal of Futures Markets 34(7), 607-636. Link.  

• “The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise their Inflation Targets in Light of the ZLB?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Johannes Wieland), 2012, Review of Economic Studies 79, 1371-1406.  Link. 

• “Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, 126-162. Link.  

• “What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2012, Journal of Political Economy 120(1), 116-159.  Link.

• “One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity” (joint with Daniel Goldstein), 2012, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 44(2:3), 401-432. Link.

• “Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?” 2012, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4(2), 1-32, lead article. Link.  

• “Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The Review of Economics and Statistics 93(3), 920-940.  Link.

• “Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), 2011, The American Economic Review 101(1), 341-370. Link.

• “Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve,” 2010, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 87-101. Link.

• “Equilibrium Demand Elasticities Across Quality Segments: The Role of Entry” (with Liran Einav and Juan Carlos Hallak), 2007, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 25(1), 13-30. Link.

• “Inflation Inertia in Sticky Information Models” 2006, BE Contributions in Macroeconomics Vol. 6: No. 1, Article 1.  Link.

Working Papers

• “Keeping Up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on Household Spending, Beliefs and Happiness,” (with Maarten van Rooij, Dimitris Georgarakos, Bernardo Candia and Yuriy Gorodnichenko). This version: January 2024. PDF.

• “Lifetime Memories of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Isabelle Salle). This version: December 2023. PDF.

• “Keep Calm and Bank On: Panic-Driven Bank Runs and The Role of Public Communication,” (with Damiano Sandri, Francesco Grigoli, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko). This version: August 2023. PDF.

• “Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High Inflation Settings,” (with  Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Hassan Afrouzi, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny and Jorge Ponce.). This version: February 2024. PDF. 

• “Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance,” (with  Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia and Yuriy Gorodnichenko). This version: May 2023. PDF.

• “Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Tiziano Ropele). This version: April 2023. PDF. Revise and resubmit at Review of Economic Studies.

• “Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber). This version: February 2021. PDF.

• “The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a New Survey," (with Bernardo Candia and  Yuriy Gorodnichenko). PDF. Conditionally accepted at Journal of Monetary Economics. 

• “Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: March 2021. PDF. 

• “How Did U.S. Households Use their Stimulus Payments?” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), PDF.

• “The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending,” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), PDF.

• “Labor Markets during the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View” (with Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber), This version: April 2020. PDF.

• “The Predictive Content of Energy Futures” (joint with Menzie Chinn and Michael LeBlanc), 2005, NBER WP No. 11033.  

Other Writing

• “Does the Great Recession really mean the end of the Great Moderation?” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2010.  Available on VoxEU.  Response by Brad DeLong.                    -

• “When will the Fed raise interest rates?  Reconciling Taylor rule and financial market forecasts.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), March 2010.  Available on VoxEU. 

• “What does the Fed's language about 2013 mean?  A rules-based interpretation.” (joint with Yuriy Gorodnichenko), January 2011.  Available on VoxEU.

• “Comments on Dovern, Fritsche, Loungani and Tamirisa (forthcoming)” forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting, January 2014. Link to published version. Working paper.