Research
Published Papers
Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?, forthcoming American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, with Terry Fitzgerald, Callum Jones and Juan Pablo Nicolini
Yield Curve Control and Zero Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy, 2022, Australian Economic Review with Callum Jones
International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks, 2021, Journal of Applied Econometrics with Callum Jones and Daniel Rees. Online Appendix
Turning Point and Oscillatory Cycles: Concepts, Measurement and Use, 2021, Journal of Economic Surveys, with Adrian Pagan
Disinflations in a Model of Imperfectly Anchored Expectations, 2017, European Economic Review, with Christopher Gibbs
Unprecedented Changes in the Terms of Trade, 2017, Journal of International Economics, with Daniel Rees. Online Appendix. MATLAB Code
Estimating DSGE Models with Zero Interest Rate Policy, 2017, Journal of Monetary Economics, with James Morley and Tim Robinson. Online Appendix. MATLAB Code.
Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes, 2017, Journal of Applied Econometrics, with Adrian Pagan. MATLAB Code. Additional results in RDP 2012-08. Online Appendix. Winner of the 14th Richard Stone Prize in Applied Econometrics
A Graphical Representation of an Estimated DSGE Model, 2015, Applied Economics, with Callum Jones. MATLAB Code.
Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change, 2016, Econometric Reviews, with Adrian Pagan.
Long-term Interest Rates, Risk Premia and Unconventional Monetary Policy, 2013, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, with Callum Jones. MATLAB Code.
Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes, 2013, Review of Economics and Statistics, with Adam Cagliarini. MATLAB Code.
Direct Effects of Money on Aggregate Demand: Another Look at the Evidence, 2013, Applied Economics, with Stephen Elias.
Urban Structure and Housing Prices: Some Evidence from Australian Cities, 2012, Economic Record, with Anthony Richards and Christian Gillitzer.
The Yield Curve in a Small Open Economy, 2011, Journal of International Economics, with Daniel Rees. MATLAB Code.
The Butterfly Effect of Small Open Economies, 2010, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, with Jarkko Jaaskela.
Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis, 2010, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Topics), with Chris Kent and Kathryn Smith.
Should Monetary Policy Use Long-Term Rates?, 2007, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Advances)
Working Papers
The Fiscal Arithmetic of a Slowdown in Trend Growth, Dec 2023, with Nadine Yamout, Online Appendix.
Unemployment in a Commodity-Rich Economy: How Relevant is Dutch Disease?, Apr 2024, with James Morley, Nadine Yamout and Francesco Zanetti
A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate, Oct 2022, with Callum Jones and James Morley. Download the latest shadow rate estimate from https://github.com/callumjones/shadow-rate
Priors and Slope of the Phillips Curve, Sep 2022, with Callum Jones and Juan Pablo Nicolini
Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded, Sep 2022, with Han Gao and Juan Pablo Nicolini
Other Publications
Sensitivity Analysis on Sydney’s Urban Structure and House Prices for the 2021 Intergenerational Report, Jan-2021, with Kevin Ge and Luke Maguire
Property Market Cycles as Paths to Financial Distress, 2012, in Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of International Settlements Conference, with Luci Ellis and Stephanie Johnson.
Discussion of 'Optimal Private Responses to Demographic Trends: Savings, Bequests and International Mobility', RBA Annual Conference Volume, 2006, Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.