U.S. Probabilities of Recession (Chauvet IER)

New Probability of Recession to be updated July 2023

 Real Time Probabilities of Recession

Probability of Recession in May 2023:  8%

 Last U.S. Recession ended in April 2020

 Probabilities of recession have been close to zero since April 2021

Past Recession

Below are the smoothed probabilities of recession, recursively estimated every month

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(As of end of October 2012, data available up to August 2012)

Month                         Probability of                    Business Cycle       Recession                 Recession                                Indicator

                                          (%)

Probabilities of recession, Business Cycle Indicator,

and NBER-recessions (shaded area)

For more details see: CREFC

Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles

The probabilities are calculated according to the model proposed in:

Chauvet, M. (1998), "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycles with Factor Structure and Markov Switching," International Economic Review, 39, 4, 969-996.

The paper can be downloaded from here:

http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf

NEW:

Click here to read about The Beginning and End of the 2007-2009 Recession

Click here to read about Real Time Probabilities of Recessions

Snapshot - probabilities of recession

in the last 7 years