Outlook

1.        “Tumbling Dice,” Op-ed article on New York Times, Feb 28 2009, with Kevin Hassett. (dice)

Article discusses the author's result based on the real time business cycle model in Feb 2009 that recession should end in mid 2009.

2.        “The Facts Say No,” Op-ed article on New York Times, Dec 16 2007, with Kevin Hassett. ( NoRecessionYet)

Article discusses the author's result based on the real time business cycle model in Dec 2007 that recession had not started yet in October 2007.

3.        “Is the U.S. Recession Over Yet?” CREFC Economic Letter, March No. 2002-01. (Recession2001)

4.        “Recuperacao Lenta ou Risco de Recessao?”, International Economic Conditions, August 2002, 1-4, International Relation Secretary (SAIN), Ministry of Finance of Brazil (Fazenda).

5.        “Slow Recovery or a Double Dip Recession?” CREFC Economic Letter, November No. 2002-02.

6.    "Analysis of Taxation Policy in the Rice Market of Sao Paulo, University of Brasilia (under  fellowship from CNPq and PNPE/IPEA).

7.    "The Economic Impact of Changes in Value-Added Tax on Basic Food," University of Pennsylvania (under fellowship from OAS - Organization of American States)

8.    "Comparative Experience in the Electricity Sector of Selected Countries, (prepared for the World Bank, Africa Division)"

9.    "Analysis of Economic Policy in Brazil: 1979-1988," (prepared for the Ministry of Industry, Brazil)

10.     "Financial Simulation Models for Measuring Performance and Decision Making," (prepared for the Ministry of Industry, Brazil)

11.    "The Liquidity Question in the Cruzado Plan," (under a grant from the University of Brasilia)