News
14 May 2024
New CAMA working paper “Trend-cycle decomposition after COVID” with accompanying website bnfiltering.com and updated EViews add-in
24 April 2024
Updated version of “Unemployment in a Commodity-Rich Economy: How Relevant Is Dutch Disease?”
6 April 2024
“A Simple Correction for Misspecification in Trend-Cycle Decompositions with an Application to Estimating r*” published open access in the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (code, including to apply to given preliminary estimated trend, available here)
29 March 2024
Updated version of “A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate”. Data for the structural shadow rate available here
11 February 2024
“Did Marginal Propensities to Consume Change with the Housing Boom and Bust?” published open access in the Journal of Applied Econometrics (code available here)
9 February 2024
Book review of “Zero Interest Policy & the New Abnormal: A Critique, by Michael Beenstock” forthcoming in The Economic Record
30 October 2023
Awarded ARC Discovery Grant on "Implications of Global Economic Forces for Domestic Monetary Policy" (with Benjamin Wong, Qazi Haque, and Qingyuan Du)
29 October 2023
“Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters Help Predict the Shape of Recessions in Real Time?” published open access in Economics Letters (code available here)
25 September 2023
PhD scholarship opportunity for international students to study in macroeconomics at the University of Sydney.
15 August 2023
New CAMA working paper “Dutch Disease, Unemployment and Structural Change”
20 May 2023
New CAMA working paper “Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters Help Predict the Shape of Recessions in Real Time?”
16 March 2022
My PhD student Michaela Haderer has accepted a job at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Congratulations, Michaela!
3 February 2023
I have been appointed to the ARC College of Experts
11 January 2023
“Estimating the Euro Area Output Gap Using Multivariate Information and Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic” accepted for publication in the European Economic Review
12 October 2022
My former PhD student Tara Sinclair has been appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Treasury. Congratulations, Tara!
5 August 2022
“Cyclical Signals from the Labor Market” published as lead article in inaugural issue of Oxford Open Economics
25 March 2022
"Estimating Household Consumption Insurance" now available open access in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Matlab, R, and Gauss code available here
4 March 2022
"Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession?" published open access in the Review of Economics and Statistics
23 February 2022
Short 15 minute interview with Faculti on nowcasting the output gap
24 December 2021
Awarded ARC Discovery Grant on "Understanding Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Unobserved Networks" (with Valentyn Panchenko, Christiern Rose, Jorge Miranda Pinto, and Dick van Dijk)
18 October 2021
New Federal Reserve Board FEDS working paper “A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate”. Latest data on the structural shadow rate available for download here
24 September 2021
"When Is Discretionary Fiscal Policy Effective?" published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. Code available here and online appendix available here
15 September 2021
I have been appointed as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from 2022-2024
30 June 2021
Masterclass lecture on "The Economic Policy Lessons of the COVID Crisis"
19 May 2021
“Debt and Financial Market Contagion” accepted for publication in Empirical Economics
31 December 2020
I have been appointed for a second three-year term (2021-2023) as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics
4 December 2020
EViews add-in now available for multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a BVAR, as proposed in Morley and Wong (2020, Journal of Applied Econometrics)
5 November 2020
"Nowcasting the Output Gap" for the Special Theme Issue on Covid19 available online in the Journal of Econometrics. Nowcasts also available at http://outputgapnow.com. Code available here
29 October 2018
"Have the Driving Forces of Inflation Changed in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies?" now available as a BIS working paper
7 October 2020
"Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?" published in Macroeconomic Dynamics. GAUSS code available
29 September 2020
Heather Anderson, Renee Fry-McKibbin, and I guest-edited a special issue of The Economic Record dedicated to the memory of Mardi Dungy. Mardi was an inspiration as an economist and a wonderful person. She is deeply missed by all who knew her
15 September 2020
Updated BN filter add-in for EViews to easier-to-use version 2.2. For more details about the add-in, see EViews blog post by my co-author Ben Wong and Davaajargal Luvsannyam
5 August 2020
Article in Pearls and Irritations on why the RBA should stick to inflation targeting
17 June 2020
Participated in CAMA "COVID-19 and Policy Choices" panel discussion (with slides) along with Hilde Bjørnland and Dan Rees
10 June 2020
I have been elected a voting member of the Australasian Standing Committee of the Econometric Society for 2020-2023
7 May 2020
Article in Inside Story on the tradeoffs involved with economic and social restrictions
4 May 2020
Podcast with Callum Jones on a macro model of optimal mitigation policy for a pandemic
29 April 2020
Article in The Conversation on the need for fiscal stimulus. Full "wonkish" version is here. Also a member of Go8 "Roadmap to Recovery" taskforce. Report is here
21 April 2020
"A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting" published as Early View in The Economic Record. Code available here
18 April 2020
Podcast with Q&A about the economic challenges of the COVID-19 crisis
3 April 2020
Podcast on the fiscal policy response to the crisis
26 March 2020
Podcast on the RBA's monetary policy in a time of crisis
15 March 2020
Podcast on the economic consequences of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Crisis
26 February 2020
EViews blog post by my co-author Ben Wong on how to use the BN filter add-in for EViews
17 February 2020
"Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions" published as lead article in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Code available here
7 November 2019
I have been elected a Fellow of the International Association for Applied Econometrics
25 October 2019
"The Australian Real-Time Fiscal Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Analysing Planned and Realised Fiscal Policies" accepted for publication in the Economic Record. Data available here
3 April 2019
"Improving Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Threshold Parameters in Finite Samples" awarded Best Paper in 2018 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
2 April 2019
Pre-Budget Seminar presentation (starts around 17mins 45secs) at the Australian Parliamentary Library and slides
12 February 2019
Co-Director (with Mariano Kulish) of the University of Sydney research initiative "Global Perspectives on Economic Policy"
3 January 2019
I have been appointed a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Lancaster University and will visit there periodically in 2019-2020
21 December 2018
Conference paper from the RBA policy conference last March
28 November 2018
Awarded two ARC Discovery Grants on "Fiscal Policy and Unemployment in an Open Economy" (with Mariano Kulish and Francesco Zanetti) and "Understanding the Sources of Secular Stagnation" (with Yunjong Eo and Ben Wong)
10 July 2018
"Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter" published in the Review of Economics and Statistics. R and Matlab code available.
30 November 2017
5th Annual Continuing Education in Macroeconometrics workshop at University of Sydney
20 September 2017
I have been appointed as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics
1 August 2017
Question on Q&A ("Dual Citizens" segment at 26:34)
14 July 2017
I have been appointed to the Economic Statistics Advisory Group for the Australian Bureau of Statistics
30 June 2017
I am excited to announce that I will be moving to University of Sydney School of Economics as a Professor of Macroeconomics in mid September!