Vita
Short Bio
James Morley is a Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Sydney. He received his PhD from the University of Washington in 1999 and previously held positions at Washington University in St. Louis and the University of New South Wales. He is a Fellow of the International Association for Applied Econometrics and a former President of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. He serves on the Australian Research Council's College of Experts and is a Co-Editor of The Economic Record. His research focuses on the empirical analysis of business cycles, stabilization policy, and sources of persistent changes in macroeconomic and financial conditions.
Selected Publications
“Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 35 (January/February 2020, lead article), 1-18 (with Benjamin Wong)
“Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 100 (July 2018), 550-566 (with Gunes Kamber and Benjamin Wong)
“Estimating DSGE Models with Zero Interest Rate Policy” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 88 (June 2017), 35-49 (with Mariano Kulish and Tim Robinson)
“Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks” Quantitative Economics, vol. 6 (July 2015), 463-497 (with Yunjong Eo)
“The Asymmetric Business Cycle” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 94 (February 2012), 208-221 (with Jeremy Piger)
“The Slow Adjustment of Aggregate Consumption to Permanent Income,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 39 (March-April 2007), 615-638
“In Search of the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 54 (March 2007), 550-564 (with Thomas King)
“The Structural Break in the Equity Premium” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 23 (April 2005), 181-191 (with Chang-Jin Kim and Charles R. Nelson)
“Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 20 (“Recent Developments in Business Cycle Analysis” 2005), 291-309 (with Chang-Jin Kim and Jeremy Piger)
“Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85 (May 2003, lead article), 235-243 (with Charles R. Nelson and Eric Zivot)
Selected Grants
Australian Research Council Grant DP240100970, “Implications of Global Economic Forces for Domestic Monetary Policy” (with Benjamin Wong, Qazi Haque, and Qingyuan Du), AUD$309,037 (2024-2026)
Australian Research Council Grant DP22101043, “Understanding Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Unobserved Networks” (with Valentyn Panchenko, Christiern Rose, Jorge Miranda Pinto, and Dick van Dijk), AUD$199,649 (2022-2024)
Australian Research Council Grant DP190100202, “Understanding the Sources of Secular Stagnation” (with Yunjong Eo and Benjamin Wong), AUD$317,610 (2019-2021)
Australian Research Council Grant DP190100537, “Fiscal Policy and Unemployment in an Open Economy” (with Mariano Kulish and Francesco Zanetti), AUD$349,000 (2019-2021)
Australian Research Council Grant DP140103029, “Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data” (with Kalvinder Shields and Kevin Lee), AUD$210,000 (2014-2016)
Australian Research Council Grant DP130102950, “Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy”, AUD$152,000 (2013-2015)
Selected Professional Activities
Member of the ARC College of Experts (2023-)
Co-Director of University of Sydney research theme “Global Perspectives on Economic Policy”
President of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2011-2014)
Co-Editor of The Economic Record (2015-2024) and Associate Editor for the Journal of Applied Econometrics (2018-2024), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2015-2018, 2021-2024), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2011-2022), and Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2011-)
Member of the Shadow RBA Board (2011-)