Research

My research methodology is empirical, using:

• Applied microeconometrics

• Structural econometric models 

• Machine learning

And my research interest is:

• Supply Chain: supply chain network, supply chain disruptions, global supply chain management

• Management: international business, innovation, entrepreneurship, technology management, management strategy.

• Economics: productivity, natural resources, public policy, development.

Peer-review Publications

On resource depletion and productivity: The case of the Chilean copper industry, (with Marcelo Villena) Resources Policy, Volume 59, December (2018), Pages 553-562. [pdf]. 

Innovate to export or export to innovate? An analysis of firms in the Chilean manufacturing industry, 1995-2010, (with Marcelo Villena, Eduardo Bitran and Cristián González) Estudios Públicos, 134 (otoño 2014), 109-130.  [pdf] (Spanish).

Working Paper

On the impact of the China–United States trade war on the US Supply Chain

We study how the US tariff imposed on China during 2018Q3 affected the operations of multinational US companies. We focus on 2018Q3 because it concentrates on a sharp rate increase over a brief period of time, which favors econometric evaluation. We used data between 2015 and 2019 to avoid the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use transaction-level import data at the shipment level of imports to the United States. We find that companies have diversified their sources, reduced the share of imports from China, and increased the share of imports from other Asian countries, such as India and Vietnam, and North American countries, such as Canada and Mexico (similar to Alfaro and Chor, 2023). We also observe an increase in lead time in the operations of the company and a negative effect in the company’s financial results. We test the causal effect of the tariff war on leadtime and the diversification of sources. In both cases, we find causal evidence. The increase in tariffs produced an increase of 1.5 more country sources, reduced the supply from the main country by 0.3%, and finally increased the leadtime for US supply chain importers by 0.4%.

Energy demand in the copper mining industry of four OECD Countries, (with Marcelo Villena).

Household welfare and CO2 emission impacts Gasoline and diesel taxes in Chile. (with Marcelo Villena). To be submitted to Energy Economics.

Energy-Capital substitution in the copper mining industry: The case of Chile, Australia, USA and Canada. (with Marcelo Villena) to be submitted to Energy Economics.

Policy Reports

Annual Report 2018. Productivity Commission of Chile. (Spanish). December, 2018. [pdf]

Annual Report 2017. Productivity Commission of Chile. (Spanish). December, 2017. [pdf]

Annual Report 2016. Productivity Commission of Chile. (Spanish). December, 2016. [pdf]

Measurement of Productivity in Chile: A Literature Review, Technical report, Productivity Commission of Chile, (Spanish) September, 2016. [pdf] 

Measurement of Industry-level Productivity in Chile: A Literature Review, Technical report, Productivity Commission of Chile, (Spanish) [pdf] October, 2016.

Productivity, Competitiveness and Growth: A Conceptual Framework for the discussion and analysis of Public Policies. Productivity Commission of Chile, (Spanish) October, 2015. [pdf]

Books and Chapters

Chapter 1. Productividad: una mirada general. Book: En búsqueda de la productividad perdida (Spanish Edition) Edited by: Libertad y Desarrollo LyD (Spanish), Jul-2018, (with Alfie Ulloa) [Amazon]