Research

Publications

Working Papers


The number of individuals forcibly displaced by conflicts has been rising in the past few decades. However, we know little about the dynamics—magnitude, timing, and persistence—of conflict-induced migration in the short run. We use novel high-frequency data to estimate the dynamic migration response to conflict for the case of the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of the deadliest conflicts in world history. We find that, on average, insurgency events led to a large increase in migration rates of about 60 percent that lasted for a few months: after five months, migration rates reverted back to pre-violence levels. This finding masks substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects, as we find larger and more persistent effects for women and children. We show that violence was the main treatment channel, with variation in the intensity and nature of violence explaining the magnitude and persistence of the migration response. While migration costs, migrant networks, and land ownership moderated the migration response to conflict, we show that these factors affect different aspects of the response. 


We investigate the impact of infographics on student learning in principles of economics classes. Infographics display facts, data, and information about a specific topic in a clear and easy to understand manner, using graphics and pictures to help summarize, explain, and display information. Creating an infographic can be a fun and powerful tool for learning new topics in both introductory and advanced courses. We use a randomized experiment to evaluate the effect of infographics on student learning as measured by exam performance. The randomization across topics enables a student-fixed effects estimation of the effect of infographics. We find students were about two percentage points more likely to get a multiple choice question correct relating to the topics for which they completed an infographic relative to those they did not. Infographics appear to help higher ability students most, increasing their scores on both multiple choice and short answer questions. 


The Bracero Program was a massive guest worker program that allowed over four million Mexican workers to migrate legally and work temporarily in the United States from 1942 to 1964. This paper examines the development impacts of the program, especially its effect on individual investments. Exploiting microdata and within person variation in migration choices, I estimate an individual fixed effects model estimating the effect of bracero migration on the individual’s decision to start a new business. Results indicate that individuals migrating as braceros were more likely to start new businesses, and that bracero trips are more likely to result in business investment than are illegal trips. Several alternative explanations are systematically eliminated. Survival analysis is used to further explore the timing of business investment and how that was related to migration. Hazard models suggest that bracero migration was associated with a greater hazard of investment. These models also suggest that illegal migration was less successful in encouraging immediate entrepreneurial activity. This provides strong evidence that the Bracero Program increased economic growth and development by spurring new investment and that this boost was greater than for other migration options at the time.


The Bracero Program was a historical guest worker program between Mexico and the United States that saw the temporary migration of nearly five million agricultural workers to the United States.  Guest worker programs benefit the host country with relatively cheaper labor, and the sending communities with influxes of cash earned abroad.  The Bracero Program provides an opportunity to understand the long term development impacts of such a policy.  I compare the adult outcomes of those children who were treated with exposure to the program (father migrating to the United States as a bracero) to those children who were not exposed.  I propose two methods to isolate plausibly exogenous variation and estimate this effect.  One is a family fixed effects model that compares siblings, and the other is a difference-in-differences model that exploits a natural experiment in the institutional history of the program.  Positive effects in the long run provide further evidence of guest worker programs as good development policy.


Works in Progress