Welcome to the Year 3000

by Abigail Anderson, 2018

Where's the Water?

By the year 3000, the global temperature continues to climb. Here's how the heat affects the water cycle.

  • Rising temps mean greater evaporation of water
  • Warmer air can hold more water vapor, which means more intense rainstorms
  • Intense rainstorm = risk of flooding
  • The water from those storms does little for the soil, as most of it becomes runoff
  • So, even with crazy storms, there is a high risk of drought

Carbon Cycle

  • CO2 causes roughly 20% of Earth's greenhouse effect
  • In the future, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has continued to increase
  • The carbon cycle naturally varies in response to climate change (Milankovitch Cycles)
  • In the future, humans are using fossil fuels at a very fast rate, putting a lot of CO2 in the atmosphere
  • Carbon is stored within plants, but in the future there has been much deforestation, therefore there are less trees to act as "carbon sinks"

Energy Sources

  • Widespread use of solar
  • More advanced electric vehicles- better driving range
  • Wind power

Rising Seas

  • Increased global temperature has caused a rapid loss of glaciers
  • As a glacier melts, its weight is removed. This causes changes in the mantle, which can lead to increased volcanic activity
  • Volcanic activity increases CO2 in the atmosphere
  • Another impact of melting glaciers is rising oceans
  • In the future, many individuals have been displaced by the rising water and increased volcanic activity.

Plate Tectonics

  • Continents will continue to shift, very slowly
  • By the year 3000, not much will have changed
  • Increased frequency of earthquakes as plates move

Evolution & Extinction

  • Corals
  • Polar bears


  • Marine species such as clams adapt to use less carbonate when building shells
  • More plants that can tolerate high temps and less water


"It should be noted that at 1.5° C warming, and if species' ability to disperse naturally to track their preferred climate geographically is inhibited by natural or anthropogenic obstacles, there would still remain 10% of the amphibians, 8% of the reptiles, 6% of the mammals, 5% of the birds, 10% of the insects and 8% of the plants which are projected to lose over half their range, while species on average lose 20-27% of their range."

(Bindi et al., 2018)

From Smokestacks to Seashells: Ocean Acidification

  • Increased CO2 has worsened ocean acidity
  • CO2 dissolves into the ocean and creates carbonic acid
  • The problem is that carbonic acid reacts with carbonate ions in water and forms bicarbonate
  • Different marine species need carbonate to build their shells, but acidic oceans leave less carbonate available
  • This means that the shells of these animals are thin
  • This has harmed many marine species such as clams, oysters, and corals

"The pteropod, or 'sea butterfly', is a tiny sea creature about the size of a small pea. The photos below show that a pteropod's shell dissolves over 45 days when placed in sea water with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100."

(NOAA, "What is Ocean Acidification?")

Evolution of Ecosystems

"Above 1.5° C, an expansion of desert and arid vegetation would occur in the Mediterranean biome."

  • More areas will become deserts
  • Drastic reduction in rainforests

Isotopes

By looking to isotopes, we learn about the past, and can better understand what the future may be like.

"The isotope composition from this ice core can then be determined to estimate such things as temperature, precipitation rate, wind speed, and greenhouse gas concentration over extremely long periods, since the isotopes are frozen in the ice in a virtually timeless record."

(Ford, 2001)

Population Explosion

  • Exponential growth of population
  • Population will be huge by year 3000

Survival?

Yes, humans are still around, and will be for a long time.

Feedback Loops

Not-So Permanent Permafrost

  • Permafrost is rich deposits of carbon accumulated over thousands of years from plant matter
  • The cold slows decay
  • Rising temps = thawing permafrost
  • Release of more CO2 and methane
  • Continue to affect climate change

Albedo Effect

  • Temperature rise = sea ice melts
  • Surface albedo decreases
  • Albedo: ability to reflect light
  • As more ice melts, less light is reflected, and the ocean absorbs more heat
  • Overall increases global temperature

Air Quality

  • Increased emissions, declining air quality
  • More days of inversion in some areas

No Snow?

  • Areas such as Utah will see more rain than snow as global temperature increases
  • Increased risk of flooding
  • Lowered snow pack, less water access

References