Welcome to the Year 3000

by Abigail Anderson, 2018

Where's the Water?

By the year 3000, the global temperature continues to climb. Here's how the heat affects the water cycle.

Rising temps mean greater evaporation of water
Warmer air can hold more water vapor, which means more intense rainstorms
Intense rainstorm = risk of flooding
The water from those storms does little for the soil, as most of it becomes runoff
So, even with crazy storms, there is a high risk of drought

Carbon Cycle

CO2 causes roughly 20% of Earth's greenhouse effect
In the future, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has continued to increase
The carbon cycle naturally varies in response to climate change (Milankovitch Cycles)
In the future, humans are using fossil fuels at a very fast rate, putting a lot of CO2 in the atmosphere
Carbon is stored within plants, but in the future there has been much deforestation, therefore there are less trees to act as "carbon sinks"

Energy Sources

Widespread use of solar
More advanced electric vehicles- better driving range
Wind power

Rising Seas

Increased global temperature has caused a rapid loss of glaciers
As a glacier melts, its weight is removed. This causes changes in the mantle, which can lead to increased volcanic activity
Volcanic activity increases CO2 in the atmosphere
Another impact of melting glaciers is rising oceans
In the future, many individuals have been displaced by the rising water and increased volcanic activity.

Plate Tectonics

Continents will continue to shift, very slowly
By the year 3000, not much will have changed
Increased frequency of earthquakes as plates move

Evolution & Extinction

Corals
Polar bears

Marine species such as clams adapt to use less carbonate when building shells
More plants that can tolerate high temps and less water

"It should be noted that at 1.5° C warming, and if species' ability to disperse naturally to track their preferred climate geographically is inhibited by natural or anthropogenic obstacles, there would still remain 10% of the amphibians, 8% of the reptiles, 6% of the mammals, 5% of the birds, 10% of the insects and 8% of the plants which are projected to lose over half their range, while species on average lose 20-27% of their range."

(Bindi et al., 2018)

From Smokestacks to Seashells: Ocean Acidification

Increased CO2 has worsened ocean acidity
CO2 dissolves into the ocean and creates carbonic acid
The problem is that carbonic acid reacts with carbonate ions in water and forms bicarbonate
Different marine species need carbonate to build their shells, but acidic oceans leave less carbonate available
This means that the shells of these animals are thin
This has harmed many marine species such as clams, oysters, and corals

"The pteropod, or 'sea butterfly', is a tiny sea creature about the size of a small pea. The photos below show that a pteropod's shell dissolves over 45 days when placed in sea water with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100."

(NOAA, "What is Ocean Acidification?")

Evolution of Ecosystems

"Above 1.5° C, an expansion of desert and arid vegetation would occur in the Mediterranean biome."

More areas will become deserts
Drastic reduction in rainforests

Isotopes

By looking to isotopes, we learn about the past, and can better understand what the future may be like.

"The isotope composition from this ice core can then be determined to estimate such things as temperature, precipitation rate, wind speed, and greenhouse gas concentration over extremely long periods, since the isotopes are frozen in the ice in a virtually timeless record."

(Ford, 2001)

Population Explosion

Exponential growth of population
Population will be huge by year 3000

Survival?

Yes, humans are still around, and will be for a long time.

Feedback Loops

Not-So Permanent Permafrost

Permafrost is rich deposits of carbon accumulated over thousands of years from plant matter
The cold slows decay
Rising temps = thawing permafrost
Release of more CO2 and methane
Continue to affect climate change

Albedo Effect

Temperature rise = sea ice melts
Surface albedo decreases
Albedo: ability to reflect light
As more ice melts, less light is reflected, and the ocean absorbs more heat
Overall increases global temperature

Air Quality

Increased emissions, declining air quality
More days of inversion in some areas

No Snow?

Areas such as Utah will see more rain than snow as global temperature increases
Increased risk of flooding
Lowered snow pack, less water access

References

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