Research

Publications:

Journal Article:

1. "The impact of unconditional cash transfers on labor supply: evidence from Iran’s energy subsidy reform program," (Journal of Development Economics, 2018, with Djavad Salehi-Isfahani ) (Media attention: Business Insider, Vox)

Book Chapter:

2. ”Simulating The Impact of Subsidy Reform on Household Welfare and Government Deficit; The Case of Iran”, The Quest for Subsidies Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region: A Microsimulation Approach to Policy Making, Ed. Paolo Verme and Abdelkrim Araar, 2017 (with Djavad Salehi-Isfahani). [PDF]

Institutional Publications:

3. [NEW] "Welfare and Fiscal Implications from Increased Gasoline Prices in the Islamic Republic of Iran," Policy Research working paper no. 9235, The World Bank, 2020, (with Aziz Atamanov, and Matthew Grant Wai-Poi ). [PDF]

4. "Poverty, Inequality, and Agriculture in the EU," Policy Research working paper No. 8638, The World Bank, 2018, (with Azevedo, Joao Pedro Wagner De; Van Den Brink, Rogier J. E.; Corral, Paul; Avila, Montserrat; Zhao, Hongxi) [PDF]

5. ”Constructing robust poverty trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 2008-14,” Policy Research working paper No. 7836, The World Bank, 2016, (with Aziz Atamanov, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, and Tara Vishwanath). [PDF]

6. ”Thinking CAP; Supporting Agricultural Jobs and Income in the EU,” The World Bank, 2017, (with Rogier van den Brink, et. al.) [PDF] [Related link]

Other Publications:

7. "Iran economic monitor: Weathering Economic Challenges," World Bank Group, Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2018. [PDF]

8. ”Iran Economics Monitor: Towards reintegration,” World Bank Group. Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2016, (with Tara Viswanath, Aziz Atamanov, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani ) [PDF]

Working Papers:

1. ”The effects of precipitation shocks on rural labor markets and migration" (Under review)

ABSTRACT. The welfare of agrarian and non-agrarian workers in rural areas is highly affected by agricultural output volatility caused in part by weather shocks. This paper examines the impact of precipitation shocks on labor supply and out-migration in rural Iran. We use individual-level panel data combined with gridded precipitation data at a rural-agglomeration level to study intensive and extensive margins of employment. Our results indicate different responses to positive and negative shocks. Using fixed effects method, we find that individuals affected by negative shocks reduce their farm and off-farm hours of work whilst those affected by positive shocks increase only o -farm hours. We observe heterogeneity in outcome based on gender and role of individuals in the household. At the extensive margin, we find that negative shocks reduce labor market participation of men. We show that road quality affects the transmission of shocks to non-agricultural sectors. When a village is connected to other areas with a dependable road, precipitation shocks will only affect agrarian households. Our estimates for the probability of migration indicate that positive (negative) shocks reduce (increase) the probability of migration for low educated young men and women. We show that migration for labor is more affected for men compared to women.

JEL classification: J21, J43, J61, O13, O15

2. "The effects of paid family leave programs in US on Women's wages and employment outcomes"

ABSTRACT. This paper studies the impact of paid family leave legislation on women's wages and employment. It provides quasi-experimental evidence from the three existing state programs in US. A panel data is constructed to eliminate unobserved individual fixed affects and draw causal inference using difference-in-differences and difference-in-difference-in-differences methods. The impact on women in the three treated states are compared to several control groups both within and outside these states to check the robustness of the results. The results show an increase in wages and a decline in the probability of labor force participation for married women in childbearing age. Some of the specifications show a heterogeneous impact and indicate only prime-age and highly-educated women benefited from the rise in wages.

JEL classification: J3, J1, J18

Conference Presentations:

1. ”Droughts and Depletion of Underground Water,”

- Middle East Economic Association Annual Meeting (Allied Social Science Association Annual Meeting), San Diego, CA, January 2020

2. ”Precipitation shocks, rural labor markets and migration: Evidence from Iran,”

- Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, July 2019

3. ”The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Labor Supply: Evidence from Iran’s Energy Subsidy Reform Program,”

-The Northeast Universities Development Consortium (NEUDC), Medford, MA, November 2017.

4. ”The Eﬀects of California’s Paid Family Leave Program on Women’s wages,”

-Southern Economic Association, Washington, DC, November 2016.

5. [Invited Talk] "Further reforms in Iran," Let's Talk Subsidies; The SUBSIM Project and Beyond, The World Bank, Washington, DC, June 2015

Work in Progress:

”Labor market eﬀects of immigrants’ rush in the Middle East; Evidence from Afghanistan and Syria conﬂicts”
”Long-run and inter-generational transmission of in-utero shocks; Evidence from Roudbar Earthquake”