Working Papers

1. Exploring the Dynamics of the  El Niño Southern Oscillation and Food Commodity Prices

Abstract: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a critical role in shaping global agricultural yields and commodity prices through its periodic and significant weather anomalies. This study investigates the impact of ENSO on five major commodity prices from 1980 to 2022, utilizing Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) and Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction (STVECM) models to capture the nonlinear dynamics and regime shifts triggered by ENSO shocks. Our findings reveal that ENSO-induced temperature deviations, particularly (severe) 1.5◦C  fluctuations, can lead to 10-20% price changes. Warmer ENSO phases (El Niño) generally cause price decreases, while cooler phases (La Niña) lead to price surges, highlighting asymmetric and nonlinear price responses. This has profound implications for low-income, food-deficit countries, which are disproportionately vulnerable to these price shocks due to their reliance on food imports. The rise in commodity prices, driven by ENSO, can significantly reduce caloric intake in these regions, exacerbating food insecurity. For policymakers, these insights offer a foundation for crafting more resilient food security strategies that mitigate the economic risks posed by ENSO-induced disruptions.

2. Down the Mississippi: How Barge Rates Affect Corn Basis

Abstract: This study investigates how river-based transportation costs, particularly barge freight rates, influence corn basis along the Mississippi River. Using weekly data from 2014 to 2024, we apply a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with spatial and time fixed effects to account for both local and spillover effects across markets. Our findings show that an increase in barge freight rates is associated with a decline in the local corn basis, underscoring the negative impact of rising transportation costs on prices paid at origin. Moreover, significant spillover effects reveal that barge rate changes in one region affect basis values in adjacent markets, indicating that transportation shocks propagate spatially. The analysis also highlights how river navigability and localized energy price variation contribute to basis volatility, depending on how spatial relationships are structured. These findings emphasize the importance of infrastructure, costs, and spatial connectivity in grain pricing.

Under Review

• Exploring the Dynamics of the  El Niño Southern Oscillation and Food Commodity Prices

• Improved Drinking Water Sources and Self-Reported Drinking Water Quality | with Eugene K. M. Nuworsu (Development in Practice)

• Sustainable Agriculture for National Development: The Role of Government Investment in Agricultural Sector Growth  | with Asamoah, G., Appiah, E. C., Adams, A. A., Kindo, M. D., Egyir I.S., & Anim-Somuah, H.

• Impact of Formal Household Land Ownership on Farm Productivity & Rural Youth Employment in Agriculture (Ghana) | with Genti Kostandini

Policy Papers

• Gupta, A. and Quaye, L.-A., “Cost-benefit Analysis of WFP’s Food Assistance for Assets projects: Evidence from Rwanda and Zimbabwe” UN World Food Programme. April 5, 2022

Non-Peer Reviewed Online Publications

• Abedin, N., Alwang, J., Chen, S., Fan, F., Liverpool, A., Navarette, J., Posadas, B., Quaye, L., & Tajanpure, P. (2022). Using Remote Sensed Data For Social & Economic Decision Making In Zimbabwe. University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. https://aaec-vt.shinyapps.io/dspg22Zimbabwe/

• Gupta, A., Kahsai, M., Pierce, T., Prisbe, C., Quaye, L., & Toure M. (2021) Availability of Services: Evolving Demographics, Housing, & Traffic in Rappahannock County, VA. University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. https://aaec-vt.shinyapps.io/Rappahannock/

Research Projects

• Data Science for the Public Good Project– “Using Remote Sensed Data for Social & Economic Decision Making in Zimbabwe”- University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute (Summer 2022)

• “Cost-benefit Analysis of WFP’s Food Assistance for Assets projects: Evidence from Rwanda and Zimbabwe” with Anubhab Gupta – Fall 2021 to Spring 2022

• Data Science for the Public Good Project – “Availability of Services: Evolving Demographics, Housing, and Traffic in Rappahannock County, Virginia” -  University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute (Summer 2021)