Research
Working Papers
Exploring the Dynamics of Food Commodity Prices and Weather Anomalies using a STAR model with Shamar Stewart, Matt Holt
Abstract
Weather anomalies-- departures from the long-term average -- often influence agricultural products' yields and market prices. We explore the relationship between five major commodity prices and weather anomalies from 1980 to 2022. Our research builds on the understanding that these relationships are inherently nonlinear and subject to structural shifts/breaks. Using a Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) and a Smooth transition vector error correction model (STVECM), we explore the influence of selected weather anomalies, on commodity prices and account for nonlinear and potentially smooth structural breaks using Logistic/Exponential forms of the transition functions. The results confirm the non-linear relationship between these weather anomalies and our commodity prices. Additionally, there is a significant correlation between the anomalies and agricultural commodity prices. We find that positive weather deviations (warmer temperatures) result in a price decrease, while negative deviations (cooler temperatures) increase the prices. We further show these effects using generalized impulse response functions and the derived measures of asymmetry.
Policy Papers
Gupta, A. and Quaye, L.-A., “Cost-benefit Analysis of WFP’s Food Assistance for Assets projects: Evidence from Rwanda and Zimbabwe” UN World Food Programme. April 5, 2022
Online Publications
Abedin, N., Alwang, J., Chen, S., Fan, F., Liverpool, A., Navarette, J., Posadas, B., Quaye, L., & Tajanpure, P. (2022). Using Remote Sensed Data For Social & Economic Decision Making In Zimbabwe. University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. https://aaec-vt.shinyapps.io/dspg22Zimbabwe/
Gupta, A., Kahsai, M., Pierce, T., Prisbe, C., Quaye, L., & Toure M. (2021) Availability of Services: Evolving Demographics, Housing, & Traffic in Rappahannock County, VA. University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. https://aaec-vt.shinyapps.io/Rappahannock/
Research Projects
Data Science for the Public Good Project – “Using Remote Sensed Data for Social & Economic Decision Making in Zimbabwe”- University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute (Summer 2022)
“Cost-benefit Analysis of WFP’s Food Assistance for Assets projects: Evidence from Rwanda and Zimbabwe” with Anubhab Gupta – Fall 2021 to Spring 2022
Data Science for the Public Good Project – “Availability of Services: Evolving Demographics, Housing, and Traffic in Rappahannock County, Virginia” - University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute (Summer 2021)
Work in Progress
Exploring the Dynamics of Food Commodity Prices and Weather Anomalies using a STAR model | with Matt Holt, Shamar Stewart
Impact of Formal Household Land Ownership on Farm Productivity & Rural Youth Employment in Agriculture (Ghana) | with Genti Kostandini
Exploring factors affecting demand for protein sources in the US: a demand system approach. | with Fayu Chong
Improved Drinking Water Sources and Self-Reported Drinking Water Quality | with Eugene K. M. Nuworsu
Sustainable Agriculture for National Development: The Role of Government Investment in Agricultural Sector Growth | with Asamoah, G., Appiah, E. C., Adams, A. A., Kindo, M. D., Egyir I.S., & Anim-Somuah, H.
Reviewer Duty
International Journal of Fruit Science
Memberships
Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA)
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA)
Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists (GAAE)
Agriculture, Nutrition and Health (ANH) Academy