Virginia Tech-North Carolina Women's Basketball Preview

Jay Winters

January 14, 2021

Chapel Hill, N.C. - Looking to break a four game losing streak, Virginia Tech will make the journey to Chapel Hill Thursday evening for a matchup with the North Carolina Tar Heels at 6:00 p.m.

The Hokies have played every ACC school tight, losing by an average of only five and a half points in each of their four losses, but find themselves at the bottom of the ACC standings at 1-4 a quarter of the way through conference play. Elizabeth Kitley and Aisha Sheppard have been the stars of the team and the conference, as they are currently the highest scoring duo in the ACC averaging 17.6 and 18.2 points per game.

North Carolina is coming off of a stretch where they have only played one game since December 20 due to COVID-19. UNC was No. 26 in the AP Poll going into last week but after a loss to Miami last Sunday night, the Heels were knocked back and now sit at 7-3 and 2-3 in the ACC.

The Heels boast four players that score in double digits, led by senior center Janelle Bailey, who averages just under a double-double with 14.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.

Tech is 8-19 all time against UNC but has won four of the last five meetings dating back to 2016. The Hokies swept last year, winning 76-70 in Blacksburg and 72-63 in Chapel Hill. Aisha Sheppard scored 15 and 16 points in the two games, while Elizabeth Kitley scored 17 and six.

Virginia Tech Keys to the Game: Finish

All four of the Hokies ACC games, with the exception of Florida State, have come down to the final minute and even possession of the game, and the Hokies have failed to either extend a lead in the fourth or make clutch plays down the stretch. With a high probability of a close game against the Tar Heels, Tech needs to take what they have been through the last four games and grind out a win.

North Carolina Keys to the Game: Capitalize on the Boards

UNC has dominated on both ends of the rebounding floor, averaging 17.4 offensive rebounds per game, which is first in the ACC and ninth in the country, and 32.5 defensive rebounds per game which is second in the ACC and 10th in the country. Virginia Tech only averages 11 offensive rebounds per game, so the Heels should statistically have more opportunities to put points on the board, while limiting second chance opportunities for Hokie putbacks and kickouts.

Virginia Tech Player to Watch: Azana Baines

Sophomore guard Azana Baines has only played three games for the Hokies but has made an immediate impact. The transfer from Duke has quickly made her way into the starting lineup starting each of the past two games and has added a key dribble-drive component that the Hokies lacked. Baines averaged just over six points and five rebounds in the three games she has played, and will be a big key going forward as those numbers will likely increase with more playing time.

North Carolina Player to Watch: Janelle Bailey

Janelle Bailey is one of two seniors on the UNC squad and leads the team in both scoring and rebounding. Bailey has also been on a tear as of late, averaging 20 points the last three games, including a 25-point performance against Syracuse, while grabbing a season-high 15 rebounds in the last game against Miami. Bailey’s matchup with Elizabeth Kitley will be a battle, but Bailey’s ability to grab offensive rebounds may edge the matchup in her favor.

Score Prediction Virginia Tech 81, North Carolina 73

Virginia Tech and UNC both sit in the top four in the ACC in average points per game, with Tech averaging 76.5 and UNC averaging 80.5, so expect this game to be a high scoring contest.

Even though UNC averages 80 points a game, the Heels only shoot 29% from three (20% in conference play) and rely on the inside and midrange to accumulate points. This will produce an intriguing battle inside between Elizabeth Kitley and Janelle Bailey. While leading the team in scoring and rebounding, Bailey also leads the team in fouls, so expect Kitley to go after Bailey throughout the game and put her into trouble early.

This should be a tightly played contest, but expect Virginia Tech to pull away in the fourth quarter. Coach Kenny Brooks has made it an emphasis for the team to learn from the mistakes that have cost the Hokies in crunch time while also improving things on the defensive end, and these points of emphasis should show if it comes down to the wire.

Watch for the Hokies to play a more efficient and clean final quarter and come out with a win, 81-73.