Commonwealth cup preview: Virginia tech and virginia

Chris Hirons

December 12, 2020

BLACKSBURG, Va. — One of the strangest college football seasons will draw to a close on Saturday as Virginia and Virginia Tech will fittingly end their respective seasons battling for the Commonwealth Cup.

For the first time in 15 years, UVa holds the Cup in its possession after knocking off the Hokies in a 23-20 overtime thriller last year in Charlottesville and advancing to the ACC Championship Game.

After starting the season 4-2, Virginia Tech has fallen into a deep, dark abyss, dropping four straight, including a late loss to Liberty and a blowout to Pitt.

The Hoos, meanwhile, are 5-4 and have won four straight games heading into Saturday’s matchup and knocked off No. 17 North Carolina to begin the win streak. Even though the next three wins were against subpar opponents, the Virginia offense is hot and has racked up at least 31 points per game during its win streak.

Originally, VT and UVa were set to play in mid-September until a rise in covid cases within Tech’s program forced the game to be moved back to its annual date — the last week of the regular season.

Virginia’s Key to the Game: Stay Hot on Offense

No matter the opponent, averaging 31 points over a four game stretch isn’t anything to sleep on. (Just ask a struggling Brad Cornelsen). And that’s just what Virginia’s been doing. Virginia Tech’s defense hasn’t been all that good this season, either. It’s progressively gotten better, however, and allowing 17 points in the first half to Clemson last week (before the wheels fell off on the offense) is an encouraging sign for Hokies’ defensive coordinator Justin Hamilton.

Virginia’s offense is as hot as it comes and it starts with quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who has surpassed the 400 total yard barrier in the past two games. During the winning streak, Armstrong is averaging 350 total yards per game. His numbers are way up across the board. Over these four games, his completion percentage is 65% and he’s essentially picking up a first down every time he drops back, averaging over 11 yards per attempt.

Armstrong is a different challenge than former UVa quarterback Bryce Perkins, who almost defeated Tech in 2018 and then ended Tech’s 15 year win streak last season. Perkins could sling it a little bit, but he was a different breed running the football with his cuts and jukes around opposing defenders. Armstrong, though, is more of a passer, but he has no problem running the football when called upon as he leads the team in rushing yards.

Virginia Tech’s Key to the Game: Run the Football Effectively

When VT ran the ball for 200-to-300 yards per game during its dominant 4-2 stretch, the offense was pretty close to unstoppable. Against Boston College, arguably Tech’s most complete game, Khalil Herbert and Hendon Hooker ran through the Eagles’ defense and combined for 307 of VT’s 350 rushing yards.

Since Boston College, Tech’s run game, and the rest of the offense for that matter, has slipped and only has one win since. Herbert has seen his total carries dip due to the early holes the team dug itself into. If Cornelsen can work some magic behind his talented offensive line — that still ranks among the best in the nation — and his run game, then it should run over UVa’s defense that’s comparable to Boston College’s.

Virginia Player to Watch: Brennan Armstrong

A week after the best game of his career, Brennan Armstrong could top his 417 total yard mark tonight. With Tech’s secondary still trying to find its footing, Armstrong should be able to light it up. If VT sticks to its seemingly season-long ‘bend don’t break’ strategy, the defense should be able to keep Armstrong and the offense out of the end zone and limit the offense to chip shot field goals.

In order to have a shot against UVa, then Tech must win the turnover battle by at least two. Against BC, Tech allowed the Eagles’ offense to reach the red zone twice but it didn’t come away with any points after a fumble and an interception. Virginia Tech will have to hope that the stars align to force Armstrong into some bad throws that turn into Tech takeaways.

Virginia Tech Player to Watch: The Quarterbacks

After Hendon Hooker appeared to convulse on the sideline last week, and Braxton Burmiester exited with a lower leg injury, the Hokies were forced to turn to redshirt Knox Kadum — the only other scholarship quarterback on the roster.

No one seems to know the condition of Hooker after head coach Justin Fuente’s postgame explanation of Hooker didn’t exactly align with Kadum’s story. Fuente, though, suggested that Hooker would be ready to roll during his press conference on Monday.

There’s no question that Hooker has struggled in recent weeks after a blazing hot start to his season when he took over for Burmiester midway through Tech’s third game of the year against North Carolina.

After relieving Hooker because of a botched snap, Burmiester kept Virginia Tech within a seven-point margin heading into halftime last week against Clemson. It appeared to be Burmiester’s job to lose once again until he hurt his knee after being sacked on third down during the second half. Burmiester headed to the training room but was back on the sideline towards the end of the game.

An injury-filled quarterback locker room could be the Hokies’ achilles heel if neither Burmiester or Hooker are ready to go against the Hoos.

Predictions:

Chris: Virginia Tech ends the losing streak and Fuente keeps his job with the win. Virginia Tech 31, Virginia 27.

Jackson Didlake: Virginia 31, Virginia Tech 27

David Cunningham: Virginia 34, Virginia Tech 30