Social Acceleration and Fertility

We assume that there are assotiation between the acceleration of everyday life and fertility trends. Based on Hartmut Rosa's theory, we aim to develop a set of tools that can detect the extent to which everyday people experience certain aspects of acceleration, and measure differences within society and changes over time.

Publications:

Zsolt Spéder (2025) Childbearing in an Accelerating Society: An Attempt to Operationalize a Theory for Empirical Analysis.” Pécs, 9 October 2025

(Presentation)

The Family, Fertility, and Human Development Initiative

The Family, Fertility, and Human Development Initiative led by Prof. James Heckman addresses global fertility decline through a multidisciplinary lens. While this phenomenon receives widespread attention, current analyses often remain confined within individual fields. The initiative features speaker series, workshops, and conferences in Chicago and Budapest, bringing together economists, sociologists, and demographers. Family, Fertility and Human Development is a joint initiative between CEHD and the Family, Household and Economy Research Center (FAMECON) at the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS) at Corvinus University in Budapest.

Family and Gender Role Expectations, 1988–2022, Conference on Exploring Population Change: Individual Resources and Socioeconomic, Cultural, and Biological Conditions, 16-17 June, 2025, University of Chicago

(Presentation) (Slides) (Related paper)

Cash Benefit or Tax Incentives, Conference on The Factors That Reduce Fertility and The Policies that Enhance it, December 119-20, 2024, Budapest, Corvinus University of Economics

(Presentation) (Slides) (Paper)

Realization of Short‑Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro‑Level Conditions Matter? Webinar, November 20, 2024

(Presentation) (Slides) (Paper)

Can Family Policy Influence the Transition to Parenthood in Turbulent Times - a Post-Communist Case Study, webinar, June 7, 2024

(Presentation) (Slides)

Fertility Intentions and Realization

Fertility intentions are the best predictors of future childbearing behavior. Thus, the factors that determine their formation and development are likely to strongly influence fertility behavior. The more certain the intentions are and the shorter the time frame they cover, the more likely they are to be realized. At the same time, we also know that intentions are often not fulfilled. Understanding the reasons for failing will certainly lead us closer to understanding fertility behavior.

Erát, Dávid and Zsolt Spéder (2025): Contrasting destinations? Emerging intention trajectories of latent family size. Advances in Life Course Research, 65, 100693.

(Abstract) (Paper)

Spéder, Zsolt and Lajos Bálint (2024). Realization of Short term Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter? Population Research and Policy Review, vol. 43. 72- doi.org./10.1007/s11113-024-09913-3

(Abstract) (Paper)

Spéder, Zs. & Kapitány, B. (2014). Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition. Population Research and Policy Review, 33(3), pp. 393-418.

(Abstract) (Article)

Spéder, Zs & Kapitány, B. (2012). Realization, Postponement or Abandonment of Childbearing Intentions in Four European Countries, Population, 67(4), pp. 599-629.

(Abstract) (English article) (French article)

Spéder, Zs & Kapitány, B. (2009). How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization, Postponement, Abandonment. Bringing Forward, European Journal of Population, 25(4), pp 503-523.

(Abstract) (Article)

Philipov, D., Spéder, Zs.,& Billari, F. C. (2006). Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001). Population Studies, 60(3), pp. 289-308.

(Abstract) (Articl

Generations and Gender Programme (GGP)

The Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) is a European research infrastructure on the causes and consequences of demographic developments. GGP is coordinated by NIDI and involves eleven European research partners, including the Hungarian Demographic Research Institute.

The GGP is a Longitudinal Survey of 18-79 year olds in 19 countries that aims to improve our understanding of the various factors -including public policy and programme interventions - which affect the relationships between parents and children (generations) and between partners (gender). A broad array of topics including fertility, partnership, the transition to adulthood, economic activity, care duties and attitudes are covered by the survey.

Key publications:

Makay, Zsuzsanna - Kapitány, Balázs - Monostori, Judit - Murinkó, Lívia - Spéder, Zsolt (2025): User guide for the five waves of the Turning Points of the Life Course Panel Survey (the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey), 2001-2017. Working Papers no. 42. p.29.

(Paper)

(Abstract) (Paper)

Spéder, Zsolt, Murinkó, L., & Sz. Oláh, L. (2020). Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary, Population Studies, 74(1), pp. 39-54.

(Abstract) (Article)

Spéder, Zs. & Kapitány, B. (2014). Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition. Population Research and Policy Review, 33(3), pp. 393-418.

(Abstract) (Article)

Spéder, Zsolt & Bartus, T. (2017). Educational enrolment, double status positions and the transition to motherhood in Hungary. European Journal of Population, 33(1), pp. 55-85.

(Abstract) (Article) (Presentation at EPC2014)

Spéder, Zs. & Kapitány, B. (2014). Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition. Population Research and Policy Review, 33(3), pp. 393-418.

(Abstract) (Article) (Opening keynote speech at EPC 2014)

Spéder, Zs & Kapitány, B. (2012). Realization, Postponement or Abandonment of Childbearing Intentions in Four European Countries, Population, 67(4), pp. 599-629.

(Abstract) (English article) (French article)

(Abstract) (Article)

Timing of Life (LIFTIMING)

TEXT IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION!!

Key publications:

Francesco C Billari, F.C., Badolato, L., Hagestad, G., Liefbroer, A.C., Settersten Jr, R.A., Spéder, Zs. & van Bavel, J. (2021). The timing of Life: topline results from round 9 of the European Socil Survey

(Paper file:///C:/Users/speder/Downloads/ESS9_toplines_issue_11_timing_life.pdf)

Spéder, Zs., Murinkó, L., & Settersten, R. A. (2014). Are conceptions of adulthood universal and unisex? Ages and social markers in 25 European countries. Social Forces, 92(3), pp. 873-898.

(Abstract) (Article)

Billari, F.C., Goisis, A., Liefbroer, A.C., Settersten, R.A., Aassve, A., Hagestad, G., Spéder, Zs. (2010). Social age deadlines for the childbearing of women and men, Human Reproduction, 26(3), pp. 616-622.

(Abstract) (Article)

Cohort ’18, Growing Up in Hungary

The Cohort ’18, Growing Up in Hungary is a longitudinal research initiated by the Hungarian Demographic Research Institute (HDRI) of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO), tracking the growth of children born in 2018/19. The study enables us to understand better the circumstances of childbearing and childrearing in Hungary, along with the distinct parental, family and social features that determine the development of children to be born here. One peculiarity of the research program is that data collection starts in the gestational age, enabling us to study the circumstances of the pregnancy. Approximately 10,000 children and their parents will participate in the survey.

Reproductive Decision-Making in a Macro-Micro Perspective (REPRO)

During the last decades all European countries faced a decline in fertility rates, although at a different pace. Evidence shows that there exists a gap between people’s wishes to have children and their actual behaviour. The realization of their wish to have a child may not be completely within their control; they can be impeded by social, economic, cultural, psychological and other circumstances that appear both at the individual and the societal level. The main objective of the REPRO project is to upgrade the existing knowledge and to generate new scientific and policy-oriented knowledge on the factors that drive changes in the birth rates and influence the reproductive decision-making of contemporary Europeans. REPRO is coordinated by VID and involves nine European research partners, including the Hungarian Demographic Research Institute and Zsolt Spéder and Balázs Kapitány as research fellows. REPRO has ended in January 2011.

Keey Publications:

Spéder, Zs. & Kapitány, B. (2014). Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition. Population Research and Policy Review, 33(3), pp. 393-418.

(Abstract) (Article)

Spéder, Zs & Kapitány, B. (2012). Realization, Postponement or Abandonment of Childbearing Intentions in Four European Countries, Population, 67(4), pp. 599-629.

(Abstract) (English article) (French article)

(Abstract) (Article)

Family, Fertility and Human Development Initiative

A joint initiative between CEHD University of Chicago and the Family, Household and Economy Research Center (FRAMECON) at the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS) at the Corvinus University in Budapest.

Project leader: Professor J. Heckman, University of Chicago

https://cehd.uchicago.edu/?page_id=7742

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