Job Market Project: Organizational Reach in Multinational Groups: Distance, Portfolio Choice, and Headquarters Structure
Hidden Critical Inputs and Geopolitical Fragmentation: Evidence from Rare Gas Supply Chains
Rare gases such as neon, helium, krypton, and xenon are essential but low-cost inputs in semiconductor manufacturing. Using global BACI trade data (2000–2024) and Chinese customs records, this paper studies how geopolitical shocks propagate through these “hidden critical inputs.” I document three main findings: (1) rare-gas supply chains are highly concentrated and dominated by a small number of countries and industrial-gas multinationals; (2) the 2022 Russia–Ukraine shock generated large global price disruptions with relatively limited quantity adjustment; and (3) China rapidly reoriented imports toward Russia while expanding exports to major Asian semiconductor hubs. The results highlight how geopolitical fragmentation can create vulnerability through technically indispensable but economically small inputs, while also revealing the limits of customs trade statistics in capturing organizational concentration within multinational supply networks. (draft)
open to co-authorship and research collaboration
Residential Gentrification without Commercial Reorientation: Evidence from Paris (Submitting draft)
This paper asks whether residential gentrification produces a parallel reorientation of neighbourhood commerce. I combine establishment histories, housing transactions, resident characteristics, commercial-premise censuses, and visitor measures for 824 Paris census tracts. Fast-appreciating, initially lower-income neighbourhoods gain professional and highly educated residents, but aggregate business entry remains flat. Sector-level entry initially appears to tilt toward activities concentrated in less affluent areas, but this pattern disappears when resident-income orientation is separated from visitor orientation and residential demand is aggregated across census-tract boundaries. Commercial premises are nearly fixed in number and turn over frequently, yet a cohort of 60,083 incumbent establishments shows little systematic movement toward successors more strongly associated with affluent resident demand. Visitor orientation clearly predicts commercial geography, whereas museum flows and the COVID-19 pandemic yield weak evidence on entry dynamics. The evidence separates residential recomposition, storefront turnover, and the direction of amenity change.
Management Reorganization in French Business Groups Facing China's Shock (Coauthor with Giordano Mion)
This project examines the impact of multinational firms' Global Value Chain (GVC) participation on the employment market where parent firms are located, specifically focusing on French multinational enterprises (MNEs). By establishing foreign affiliates in connected industries, these firms contribute to changes in local employment dynamics. Using a firm-level GVC difference index between parent and affiliate firms from 2007 to 2021, we first construct an outward FDI network for French MNEs. Integrating this network with French employer-employee data, we observe shifts in parent firm employment following the establishment of new foreign affiliates. For example, a larger GVC difference between parent and affiliate firms corresponds to smaller employment changes in parent firms, suggesting a potential compensatory effect.
Owning More of the Chain: Capital Subsidies and Firm-Level Upstream Shifts in China (Submitting draft)
This paper examines the causal effect of China’s capital goods import subsidy on firms’ production organization from a global value chain perspective. Implemented through the Catalogue for the Guidance of Importing Technologies and Products, the policy subsidized high-technology equipment to promote industrial upgrading and deeper GVC integration. We develop a model with an endogenous choice of production stages in which capital goods may be complements or substitutes for labor. Guided by this framework, the empirical analysis combines matched firm-product-year customs and production data in a difference-in-differences design around the 2008 rollout of the policy, complemented by a propensity-score-matched event study to validate dynamic effects. Using a differential treatment framework, we find that the policy induced firms to expand their span of production stages, with effects concentrated on upstream imports. These findings demonstrate how targeted equipment subsidies can accelerate vertical upgrading and reposition firms within global value chains.
Contract Enforcement and the Margins of Trade: Evidence from China's 2015 Judicial Reform (Working Paper — Call for Collaboration)
This paper studies how judicial efficiency affects firm-level trade behavior in China. Exploiting the 2015 judicial accountability reform as a quasi-natural experiment, I construct a court×year panel from over 40 million court rulings (2013–2018) to measure city-level changes in case processing speed. I then merge this with firm-level customs data to estimate the causal effect of improved contract enforcement on firms' export decisions — along both the extensive and intensive margins.
I am currently in the data construction and empirical analysis stage and am open to co-authorship and research collaboration.
China EV and Electricity Heterogeneity (Coauthor with Lutz Sager)