English
> Yonghong Zhou. Influence of Political Movement on Fields of Study: Evidence from Hong Kong, European Journal of Political Economy, 2023, 102417. (link)
Exposure to political movements may influence individuals' behavior, such as decisions on fields of study. On the basis of the Hong Kong Population Census 2011 and 2016, this paper investigates the difference in fields of study between two cohorts, one exposed to the Occupy Central movement in 2014, by applying the cohort difference-in-differences approach. As a global business center, business-related fields of study have been popular among students in Hong Kong. However, the political movement triggered the interests of young people to study several nonbusiness-related fields, such as humanities, social and behavioral sciences, life sciences, health, and law. Significant differences in the effect exist across language speaking, household income, and gender. The study shows that political movement may affect education by triggering public awareness of related knowledge, but it varies by human capital, identity, and family background.
> Jiaqiang Yan, Yonghong Zhou. Ancestral Relatedness and Visits between National Leaders: Evidence from China, Pacific Economic Review, 2023, 28(3), 390-408. (link)
This study explores the factors that affect visits between national leaders in the world, shedding light on their ancestral origins. We combine data on visits involving Chinese leaders from 1993 to 2013 with genetic distance that captures ethnic differences transmitted intergenerationally. Empirical analysis shows that there are more visits between Chinese leaders and leaders of countries that have smaller genetic distance to China. Furthermore, the impact of genetic distance is achieved primarily through trade and positioning of political relationships, which are proxies for economic and political exchanges, respectively. Our findings show that ancestral relatedness plays an important part in modern diplomatic activities.
> Dayuan Xie, Yonghong Zhou. Religion Effects on Fertility Preference: Evidence from China, Journal of Population Research, 2022, 39, 341-371. (link)
In this study, we use data from Chinese General Social Survey to investigate the impact of religion on fertility preference in the biggest transitional country. Our Results reveal a positive impact of religious faith on fertility preference after controlling individual, family, and social factors. We show the effects of religion on fertility as follow: (i) robust when considering Chinese cultural background, applying other continuous and discrete regression strategies, and dealing with endogeneity problem; (ii) more significant among Christians and Muslims; (iii) stronger for females in the high-income group; (iv) mainly driven by influences from the institutionalization of religious faith and the frequency of participation in religious activities. Our findings suggest that religion effects on fertility preference still exist in a non-religion-dominated country such as China.
> Yonghong Zhou, Xian Zheng, Ziqing Yuan. Trade Liberalization and Wages: Evidence from the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between Mainland China and Hong Kong, Research in International Business and Finance, 2022, 101653. (link)
This paper studies the impact of tariff cuts on workers’ wages in a single labor market by examining the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) trade liberalization, in which China unilaterally eliminated hundreds of tariffs on Hong Kong’s goods in 2004. Utilizing five Hong Kong censuses from 1996 to 2016, we find consistent result that a one-sided tariff concession leads to an increase in the monthly wage of affected workers, averaging between 5.75% and 6.84%. Moreover, we explore the possibility that the effects of exposure to CEPA may be heterogeneous along several dimensions. The workers who benefited the most were more educated, in higher-skilled occupations, Mandarin-speaking, near retirement, or just starting their careers. Surprisingly, we found no increase in employment in the treated industries. We conclude that tariff cuts’ wage impact and, hence, their impact on wage inequality, depend on the local labor market composition and structure.
> Jianxiong Wang, Yonghong Zhou, Impact of Mass Media on Public Awareness: The "Under the Dome" Effect in China, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, 173, 121145. (link)
This research examines the impact of mass media on citizens' awareness of environmental protection based on a natural experiment on the release of the environmental documentary titled "Under the Dome" on February 28, 2015 in China. Through a regression discontinuity design with a typical city sample, we find that the release of "Under the Dome" resulted in 2 to 3 more daily calls about air pollution concerns to the citizen hotline per county, more than twice the number of those before the shock. Considering the impact of major political events and public holidays, our results remain robust. Evidence of the "Under the Dome" effects is also found in calls about other pollution and non-pollution concerns in a longer period. We argue that the mass media generally plays a role in triggering the public awareness.
> Chaoqun Chen, Yonghong Zhou, Institutional Endowment, Curse, and the Impact of External Political Shock: Case of Macao, Review of Development Economics, 2021, 25, 2433-2453. (link)
This study investigates the influence of external political shock under a special institutional endowment brought by a high degree of autonomy, taking Macao as an example. Macao monopolizes gambling industry in China under the arrangement of “One country, Two systems” and depends heavily on tourists from Mainland China. To illustrate the problem under such an institutional endowment, this study estimates the impact of the decline in casino consumption caused by the 2014 anti-corruption campaign in Mainland China, by employing the difference in differences and synthetic control approaches. The results indicate that Macao experienced approximately three years of decline in the revenue growth of the gambling industry, which is nearly 231 billion MOP, under the political shock. Thus, an economy with institutional endowment may also face uncertainties caused by exogenous political shock. This paper contributes to the extension of the concept related to the tourism-induced Dutch disease.
> Xian Zheng, Yonghong Zhou, The Cohort Effect of Political Change on Language Speaking: Evidence from Hong Kong, Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 2021, 29(4), 575-596. (link)
It has been proven that language is a symbol of culture and politics. This study investigates the cohort effect of the Hong Kong's handover on the language speaking in adulthood based on the 2006 and 2011 Hong Kong population censuses. We find that Mandarin is more likely to be used by Hong Kong natives who were exposed to the transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 during their school-age years, especially for the generation that were exposed during their primary-school years. Besides, the Hong Kong natives who experienced the handover in their school-age years insist on speaking Mandarin even when the political environment changes from the year 2006 to 2011. Our evidences reveal that political change that occurs during school-age years has a long-term impact on an individual's behavior in their later adulthood. Further discussion implies that exposure to political change such as regime transfer during school-age years impacts individual's national identity.
> Jiaqiang Yan, Yonghong Zhou, Economic Return to Political Support: Evidence from Voting on the Representation of China in the United Nations, Journal of Asian Economics, 2021, 75, 101325.(link)
This study investigates the effect of political support in the United Nations on international trade by taking the votes on the representation of China as a case study. We document a strongly positive link between political support toward the People's Republic of China and bilateral trade in the next year. This conclusion is robust when we consider different quantitative methods, sample selections, and dataset. In addition, the results still holds when the interest similarity with Albania is applied as an instrumental variable to solve the problem of endogeneity.
> Zijun Luo, Yonghong Zhou, Decomposing the Effects of Consumer Boycotts: Evidence from the Anti-Japanese Demonstration in China, Empirical Economics, 2020, 58(6), 2615-2634. (link)
This paper quantifies the Chinese consumers' boycott of Japanese cars that immediately followed the anti-Japanese demonstrations in September 2012. We decompose the total boycott effect into two effects: the transfer effect, which refers to consumers switching from Japanese to non-Japanese brands, and the cancellation effect, which captures decline in sales due to consumers exiting the market. We find that the cancellation effect accounts for more than 90% of the total decline in Japanese car sales, implying a small substitution effect in the automobile market, even though brands of all other countries have benefited. This paper provides evidence of both negative and positive impacts of political conflicts for different market participants and includes analysis with welfare implications.
> Yonghong Zhou, Rong Zhu, Xian Zheng, Second Language Skills and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Sovereignty Transfer of Hong Kong, China Economic Review, 2020, 59, 101366. (link)
This paper analyzes the effects of second languages skills on labor market outcomes in Hong Kong. Using data from the Hong Kong Population Censuses, we find that both Mandarin and English language skills are linked to improved labor market performance, and the premiums for English are much larger than those for Mandarin. We further show that the sovereignty transfer of Hong Kong from the UK to China in 1997 has strengthened the positive role of Mandarin and English language skills in finding a job in Hong Kong. The political change has also increased the earnings of people with the ability to speak Mandarin. As a comparison, the earnings premium for speaking English has declined in magnitude after the sovereignty transfer. Investigating into the mechanisms, we show that the rising premiums for Mandarin language skills are operated through choices of occupations and industry sectors. Our findings suggest that important political changes can affect the economic returns to language skills in the labor market.
> Yi Pan, Yonghong Zhou, War Memory: Evidence from Assistance during Great East Japan Earthquake, Defence and Peace Economics, 2019, 30(7): 830-845. (link)
On the basis of a natural experiment related to the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the present work empirically analyzes the relationship between historical events and current attitude and determines whether regions that suffered severely during the Japanese invasion in World War II expressed small concern during the earthquake. After controlling for geographical distance, bilateral trade, and political characteristics, a negative relationship is found between the duration of invasion and number of related deaths in the invaded regions and their governments’ efforts in assisting Japan after the earthquake. Further analysis shows that political similarity to Japan helped in assisting them after the earthquake, but this effect was reduced for regions that sustained many deaths during the Japanese invasion. In addition, a mediation effect test shows that the help extended by Japan to several countries after the war through the Japanese official development assistance did not positively influence the amount of aid provided by such regions to Japan after the earthquake. These studies provide new evidence of the long-lasting influence of war. However, no robust evidence is found about the relationship between death rate and war memory. Therefore, even large countries cannot tolerate serious suffering during painful historical events.
> Yonghong Zhou. Have Free Trade Agreements Created Trade? Evidence from CEPA, Pacific Economic Review, 2019, 24(4): 550-569. (link)
This paper revisits the issue of trade creation effects in multi-stage FTAs. Different from many empirical studies carried by gravity equation in this field, we apply triple DID approach to solve the shortcomings of them, which are factor omitted and endogeneity. After the identification of treatment and control at the 8-digit HS code product level, the regression analysis results show that there are no significant trade creation effects in the FTAs, suggesting that the role of FTAs may be a signaling to some extent, which is more than trade.
Chinese
刘珺蓓、周泳宏:贫富差距歧视与主观幸福感,产业经济评论,2023,2,91-115.
林淑贞、周泳宏:饥荒、性格形成与心理健康,劳动经济研究,2019,7(6),117-143.
周泳宏、王璐:国际政治冲突对贸易的影响分析:以中日关系为例,中国经济问题,2019,5,54-67.
周泳宏、谭海泉:抵制日货有效吗?来自汽车销售的证据,经济学报,2017,4(3),108-126.
周泳宏、任彪:定价、“下乡”与销售:来自摩托车行业的实证,产经评论,2015,2,87-95.
杨亚平、周泳宏:成本上升、产业转移与结构升级——基于全国大中城市的实证研究,中国工业经济,2013,7,147-159.
周泳宏、谭海泉:KIBS对经济增长影响的实证分析——以香港专业服务业为例,产经评论,2013,4,81-93.
周泳宏:CEPA改变了两地贸易对香港经济增长的影响吗?统计研究,2012,3,61-66.
周泳宏、邓卫广:聚集条件下的多企业间外溢效应——基于DAG与Granger的面板分析,经济学(季刊),2010,9(2),533-552.
周泳宏、张晓峰:CFO知识背景、知识外溢与企业绩效关系研究,中大管理研究,2010,5(1):100-117.
周泳宏、唐志军:投资率门限特征、消费促进与经济增长:1995-2007,统计研究,2009,12,48-55.
周泳宏、谭蓉娟:同城关系、行业内外溢效应与聚集,当代财经,2009,2,82-87.
周泳宏、陈金华:知识异质性、主管职能变迁与企业信息化建设,广东工业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,9(3), 44-48.
周泳宏:漏损、FDI外溢效应弹性和东道国福利,世界经济研究,2008,6,63-68.
周泳宏、徐现祥:外溢效应、绩效差异与转轨,世界经济文汇,2007,6,31-54.
周泳宏:目标加权与经济增长绩效,南方经济,2006,11,89-101.
周泳宏:分配战略取向与中国经济增长绩效,上海经济研究,2006,7,3-13.
朱淑枝、周泳宏:近50年来我国产业组织形态的变迁——基于产权变革的分析,学术研究,2005,8,19-24.