[NEW!] Yang Zhou, and Shigeto Kitano. "Effectiveness of capital controls: Gates versus Walls." Empirical Economics, forthcoming.
[NEW!] Chunyang Hu, and Yang Zhou. "Do Domestic and US Economic Policy Uncertainty Increase China’s Macro-Financial Risk Connectedness?" Research in International Business and Finance Volume 80 (2025): 103138.
Published Version (Open Access); WP Version
Yang Zhou, and Shigeto Kitano. “Capital controls or macroprudential regulation: Which is better for stabilizing land booms and busts?” Open Economies Review Volume 36, 835–871 (2025).
Published Version (Open Access); WP Version
Yang Zhou. “Benefits and Costs: the impact of capital control on Growth-at-risk in China.” International Review of Financial Analysis (2024): 103161
Published Version; WP Version; Research Column (in English)
Awarded Moriguchi Prize（森口賞）
Awarded PAFTAD Young Fellowship
Yang Zhou. "The effects of capital controls on housing price." The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (2024)
Published Version (Open Access); WP Version; Research Column (in English)
Awarded Kanematsu Prize（兼松賞）
Shigeto Kitano, and Yang Zhou. "Effects of China’s capital controls on individual asset categories." Finance Research Letters 49 (2022): 103032.
Published Version (Open Access); WP Version
Awarded Kishimoto Prize（岸本賞）
Yang Zhou, and Shigeto Kitano. "Effects of Capital Flow Management Measures on Wealth Inequality: New Evidence from Counterfactual Estimators." RIEB Discussion Paper Series, No. 2024-30. [Submitted]
Abstract: We provide cross-country evidence that variations in capital flow management mea- sures (CFMs) result in differences in wealth inequality and distribution by using coun- terfactual estimators for causal inference. The imposition of aggregate CFMs increases wealth inequality in advanced economies, and the imposition of aggregate CFMs on outflows increases wealth inequality in emerging economies significantly. Diverging from previous studies, we analyze the impacts of ten distinct asset-specific CFMs. In particular, the imposition of the related CFMs to money market and derivatives reduces wealth inequality significantly. The decrease in wealth inequality is due to a decrease in the wealth shares of the top 1% and 10% groups along with an increase in the wealth shares of the middle 40% and bottom 50%. Overall, the effects of CFMs on wealth inequality and distribution are quite heterogeneous; they depend on income levels, capital flow directions, and asset categories.
[NEW!] Yang Zhou, and Shigeto Kitano. "The Effectiveness of Capital Flow Management Measures: Evidence from India." RIEB Discussion Paper Series, No. 2025-35. [Submitted]
Abstract: This study empirically examines the effectiveness of capital flow management measures (CFMs) in India. Using the local projection method and monthly de jure data constructed by Binici et al. (2024), we find that CFMs are effective across all examined asset categories: portfolio, equity, debt, and FDI inflows, as well as portfolio and FDI outflows.
[NEW!] Yang Zhou, and Shigeto Kitano. "Geopolitical Risk and Extreme Capital Flow Episodes." RIEB Discussion Paper Series, No. 2025-35. [Submitted]
Abstract: Do geopolitical risks affect the occurrence of "extreme capital flow episodes"? Using a panel of 57 economies from 1986Q1 to 2023Q4, we examine the effects of both global and country-specific geopolitical risks on the occurrence of the four types of extreme capital episodes ("surge", "stop", "flight", and "retrenchment"). We find no association between global geopolitical risks and the occurrence of extreme capital flow episodes for advanced economies and only a weak association for emerging economies. In contrast, country-specific geopolitical risks show no significant association for advanced economies but a significant association for emerging economies. Our results suggest that when country-specific geopolitical risk is high, an emerging economy is more likely to experience stop, flight, and retrenchment episodes and less likely to experience surge episodes, reflecting heightened risk perceptions among both domestic and foreign investors. For each episode, we further identify its key underlying flow type: banking flows for flight, direct investment flows for stop, and banking, debt, and equity flows for retrenchment. We also find that country specific geopolitical risks became a more important driver of these episodes after the global financial crisis. These findings are robust to incorporating additional economic uncertainty indices, to excluding or adding certain control variables, to removing periods of dramatic global geopolitical risk fluctuations, and to employing alternative econometric methodologies.
[NEW!] Yang Zhou, and So Umezaki. "Economic Uncertainty and Extreme Capital Flow Movement." IDE discussion paper, No. 967.
Abstract: The relationship between uncertainty and capital flows has attracted significant attention; however, the specific impact of economic (policy) uncertainty arising from extreme events on extreme capital flow movements remains understudied. This paper examined the effects of global and domestic economic uncertainty on extreme capital flow movement by analyzing a comprehensive dataset encompassing 57 countries on a quarterly basis from 1986 Q1 through 2023 Q4. Our results suggested that (i) in contrast to financial uncertainty, heightened U.S. EPU actually reduces the probability of stops and retrenchment occurrences and this effect is predominantly driven by U.S. Fiscal Policy Uncertainty; (ii) in the post-crisis period, U.S. EPU has gradually superseded financial uncertainty as one of the key drivers of extreme capital movements; (iii) unlike domestic EPU that exerts limited influence on extreme capital flow episodes, we found that elevated domestic WUI shocks reduce the probability of surge occurrences, and this effect is predominantly driven by the pre-crisis period in emerging markets; (iv) while demonstrating effects similar to U.S. EPU, U.S. WUI effects materialize after a twoquarter lag, indicating the presence of a temporal delay in U.S. WUI’s impact.
日本ASEAN友好協力50周年に考える：ASEANと日本 ――変わりゆく経済関係―― ：統計からみたASEANの国々
Na Guo, and Yang Zhou. "House Price Fluctuation, Macro-prudential Supervision and Optimal Monetary Policy." Nankai Economic Studies, 02, pp186-206, April 2019
Na Guo, Qian Zhang, and Yang Zhou. “House Prices Stickiness, Financial Systemic Risks, and Macroeconomic Volatility - Based on the DSGE Model of Endogenous Systemic Financial Risks”, Modern Economic Science, Vol.39, No.06, pp7-16, November 2017
Xihe Liu, Yuanyuan Mu, and Yang Zhou. “Financial Institutions Arbitrage, Adaptive Learning, and the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance”, Finance Economic Research, Vol.32, No.04, pp14-23, July 2017
Xihe Liu, Yang Zhou, and Yuanyuan Mu. “Study on The Path of Re-balancing of Balance Sheet by Enterprise De-leveraging and Household Leveraging”, Nankai Economic Studies, 03, pp111-126, June 2017