Publications 

Refereed journal publications:

1. "Turbulent Business Cycles" (with Ding Dong and Pengfei Wang), Journal of Monetary Economics (forthcoming).  [Data and replication package]

2. "Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China" (with Xiaoming Li, Yuchao Peng, and Zhiwei Xu), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (conditionally accepted, subject to data reviews).  Media mentions: VoxChina

3. ""Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets under Trade Uncertainty" (with Hamid Firooz and Sylvain Leduc),  Journal of International Economics (in press) [Data and replication package]

4. "Automation and the Rise of Superstar Firms" (with Hamid Firooz and Yajie Wang), Journal of Monetary Economics  151, April 2025, 103733.  Media mentions: faculti.net interview

5. Leduc, Sylvain and Zheng Liu, 2024. "Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations."  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 16(4): 311-349.  

6.  Liu, Zheng, Mark M. Spiegel and Jingyi Zhang, 2023. "Capital Flows and Income Inequality."  Journal of International Economics 144 (103776).  

7. Dong, Ding, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha, 2023. "A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks."  Journal of Economic Theory 203 (105484).

8. Liu, Zheng, Pengfei Wang, and Zhiwei Xu, 2021. "Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(2), 373-419.

9. Liu, Zheng, Mark M. Spiegel, and Jingyi Zhang, 2021. "Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China." Journal of Monetary Economics 117, 1041-1061.

10. Leduc, Sylvain and Zheng Liu, 2020. "The Weak Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(1), pp. 310-343.

11. Chang, Chun, Zheng Liu, Mark M. Spiegel, and Jingyi Zhang, 2019. "Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy." Journal of Monetary Economics 103, pp. 33-51.

12. He, Hui, Feng Huang, Zheng Liu, and Dongming Zhu, 2018. "Breaking the `iron rice bowl:' Evidence of precautionary savings from the Chinese state-owned enterprises reform." Journal of Monetary Economics 94, pp. 94-113.

13. Liu, Zheng, Mark M. Spiegel, and Andrew Tai, 2017. "Measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR approach." Journal of International Money and Finance 74, pp. 353-370.  Media mentions: VoxChina 

14. Leduc, Sylvain and Zheng Liu, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks." Journal of Monetary Economics 82, pp. 20-35.  (The most cited article in Journal of Monetary Economics since 2016).

15. Liu, Zheng, Jianjun Miao, and Tao Zha, 2016. "Land Prices and Unemployment." Journal of Monetary Economics 80, pp. 86-105.

16. Chang, Chun, Zheng Liu, and Mark M. Spiegel, 2015. "Capital Controls and Optimal Chinese Monetary Policy." Journal of Monetary Economics 74, pp. 1-15  (lead article, awarded the 2016 Sun Yefang Prize, China’s highest award for economics research).

17. Liu, Zheng and Mark M. Spiegel, 2015. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy." IMF Economic Review 63, pp. 298-324.

18. Huang, Kevin X.D., Zheng Liu, and John Qi Zhu, 2015. "Temptation and Self‐Control: Some Evidence and Applications." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 47(4), pp. 581-615.

19. Liu, Zheng and Pengfei Wang, 2014. "Credit Constraints and Self-Fulfilling Business Cycles." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6(1), pp. 32-69. 

20. Liu, Zheng and Louis Phaneuf, 2013. "The Transmission of Productivity Shocks: What Do We Learn about DSGE Modeling?" Annales d’Economie et de Statistique (Annals of Economics and Statistics) 109/110, pp. 283-304

21. Liu, Zheng, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha, 2013. "Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations."  Econometrica 81(3), pp. 1147-1184.

22. Jeske, Karsten and Zheng Liu, 2013. "Should the Central Bank Be Concerned About House Prices?" Macroeconomic Dynamics 17(1), pp. 29-53.

23. Liu, Zheng, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach." Quantitative Economics 2(2), pp. 251-301.

24. Liu, Zheng, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha, 2009."Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy." Review of Economic Dynamics 12(2), pp. 284-303.

25. Huang, Kevin X.D., Zheng Liu, and Tao Zha, 2009. "Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks." The Economic Journal 119, pp. 377-405.

26. Liu, Zheng and Evi Pappa, 2008. "Gains from International Monetary Policy Coordination: Does It Pay to Be Different?" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32(7), 2085-2117.

27. He, Hui and Zheng Liu, 2008. "Investment-Specific Technological Change, Skill Accumulation, and Wage Inequality." Review of Economic Dynamics 11(2), pp. 314-334.

28. Liu, Zheng and Louis Phaneuf, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics: Some Evidence and Theory." Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), pp. 2534-2553.

29. Huang, Kevin X.D. and Zheng Liu, 2007. "Business Cycles with Staggered Prices and International Trade in Intermediate Inputs." Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4), pp. 1271-1289.

30. Huang, Kevin X.D. and Zheng Liu, 2006. "Sellers’ Local Currency Pricing or Buyers’ Local Currency Pricing: Does It Matter for International Welfare Analysis?" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30(7), pp. 1,183-1,213.

31. Huang, Kevin X.D. and Zheng Liu, 2005. "Inflation Targeting: What Inflation Rate to Target?" Journal of Monetary Economics 52(8), pp. 1,435-1,462.

32. De Fiore, Fiorella and Zheng Liu, 2005. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Aggregate Instability?" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 29(7), pp. 1,165-1,192.

33. Huang, Kevin X.D., Zheng Liu, and Louis Phaneuf, 2004. "Why Does the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages Change Over Time?" American Economic Review 94(4), pp. 836-856

34. Huang, Kevin X.D. and Zheng Liu, 2004. "Input-Output Structure and Nominal Rigidity: The Persistence Problem Revisited." Macroeconomic Dynamics 8(2), pp. 188-206.

35. Huang, Kevin X.D. and Zheng Liu, 2002. "Staggered Price-Setting, Staggered Wage-Setting, and Business Cycle Persistence." Journal of Monetary Economics 49(2), pp. 405-433.

36. Huang, Kevin X.D. and Zheng Liu, 2001. "Production Chains and General Equilibrium Aggregate Dynamics." Journal of Monetary Economics 48(2), pp. 437-462.

37. Liu, Zheng, 2000. "Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy." Journal of Monetary Economics 46(2), pp. 441-464.

Other publications:

1. "Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation?" (with Sylvain Leduc and Huiyu Li), FRBSF Economic Letter 2024-12, May 13, 2024.

Media mentions: CNN (05/15/2024), Fox News (05/21/2024), New York Times (06/06/2024), Econbrowser (07/12/2024), Fox Business (08/16/2024)

2. “Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation” (with Thuy-Lan Nguyen), FRBSF Economic Letter 2023-14, June 20, 2023.

3. “Can Monetary Policy Tame Rent Inflation?” (with Mollie Pepper), FRBSF Economic Letter 2023-04, February 13, 2023. 

4. "Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?" (with Reuven Glick, Noah Kouchekinia, and Sylvain Leduc), FRBSF Economic Letter 2021-19,  July 12, 2021.  

5.  "Fiscal Multiplier at the Zero Bound: Evidence from Japan" (with Thuy-Lan Nguyen), FRBSF Economic Letter 2021-14, May 24, 2021.

6. "Capital Flow Surges and Rising Income Inequality" (with Renuka Diwan and Mark Spiegel), FRBSF Economic Letter 2021-09, March 29, 2021.

7. “2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference,`Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery': Summary ” (with Mark M. Spiegel), Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming.

8. “2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference,`Monetary Policy under Global Uncertainty': Summary ” (with Mark M. Spiegel), Journal of International Money and Finance 114, June 2021, pp. 1-2.

9. “The automation channel of pandemic-induced uncertainty” (with Sylvain Leduc), VoxEU, June 14, 2020.

10. “The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus” (with Sylvain Leduc), FRBSF Economic Letter 2020-07, March 30, 2020.  Media mentions: Reuters (03/30/2020), Central Banking Newsdesk (03/31/2020)

11. “Are Workers Losing to Robots?” (with Sylvain Leduc), FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-25, September 30, 2019. Media mentions: Bloomberg (10/01/2019), Washington Post (10/01/2019), Business Insider (10/01/2019), CBS News (10/04/2019), Daily Mail (10/02/2019), Thomas Net (10/16/2019)

12. “2017 Asia Economic Policy Conference, ‘Monetary Policy Challenges in a Changing Global Environment Conference’: Summary” (with Mark M. Spiegel), Journal of International Money and Finance 95, July 2019, pp. 183-184. 

13. “Evidence of Precautionary Savings in China” (with Hui He, Feng Huang, and Dongming Zhu), VoxChina, September 5, 2018

14. “Is GDP Overstating Economic Activity?” (with Mark M. Spiegel and Eric Tallman), FRBSF Economic Letter 2018-14, May 29, 2018, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

15. “Is Boomer Retirement Still Weighing Down U.S. Equity Markets?” (with Mark M. Spiegel), SF Fed Blog, March 5, 2018

16.  “Dollar Appreciation and Asian Economies” (with Mark M. Spiegel and Andrew Tai), VoxChina, June 20, 2017 (Inaugural issue)

17. “Reserve Requirements as A Chinese Macro Policy Tool” (with Mark M. Spiegel), FRBSF Economic Letter 2017-15, May 22, 2017, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

18. “Slow Credit Recovery and Excess Returns on Capital” (with Andrew Tai), FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-28, September 26, 2016, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

19. “Is China’s Growth Miracle Over?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-26, August 10, 2015, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

20. “Discussion of Notarpietro and Siviero,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Supplement to Vol. 47, No. 1, March-April 2015, pp. 411-417. 

21. “Global Aging: More Headwinds for U.S. Stocks?” (with Mark Spiegel and Bing Wang), FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-38, December 22, 2014, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

22. “Job Uncertainty and Chinese Household Savings,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-03, February 3, 2014, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

23. “Uncertainty and the Slow Labor Market Recovery” (with Sylvain Leduc), FRBSF Economic Letter 2013-21, July 22, 2013, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Media mentions: Bloomberg (7/22/2013), Reuters (7/22/2013), Reuters (MacroScope, 7/23/2013), Wall Street Journal (9/24/2013), Economics One (John Taylor, 07/31/2013).

24. “External Shocks and China’s Monetary Policy” (with Mark Spiegel), FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-36, December 3, 2012, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

25. “Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation” (with Sylvain Leduc), FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-28, September 17, 2012, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.  Media mentions: Bloomberg (09/17/2012), Christian Science Monitor (09/18/2012), The Economist (10/06/2012, print edition), and others.

26. “Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for US Equity Markets?” (with Mark Spiegel), FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-26, August 22, 2011, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Reprints: Merrill Lynch, Ludeman Capital Management, and Weir Financial.  Media mentions: Bloomberg (08/22/2011), The Economist (9/24/2011 and 9/29/2012, print editions), Financial Times (11/23/2012), US News and World Report, The Times, Forbes, CNN Money, MSNBC, Reuters, Christian Science Monitor, CNBC (09/24/2019), and others.  

27. “Does Headline Inflation Converge to Core?” (with Justin Weidner), FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-24, August 1, 2011, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

28. “Inflation: Mind the Gap” (with Glenn Rudebusch), FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-02, January 19, 2010, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

See also my Google Scholar page and my Fed homepage.