Research

» Alkasasbeh, Yusra. (2025). Childhood Vows, Career Costs: The Impacts of Early Marriage and Childbirth on Women’s Employment in Egypt—Evidence from ELMPS 2023. ERF Working Paper No. 1785, Economic Research Forum.

Egypt’s female labor force participation remains among the world’s lowest, at 16 percent in 2023. Results indicate that 13.8 percent of women aged 16-64 who got married before the age of 18 work 1.2 percentage points less than their peers who did not marry early. Additionally, 16.3 percent of these women had a first birth before 20, working 1.7 percentage points less than those who delayed childbirth. However, after controlling for age, schooling, maternal background, and region, survey-weighted logit average marginal effects for early marriage and early childbirth are statistically indistinguishable from zero (p > 0.10), suggesting that lower employment reflects differences in human capital rather than transition timing. Interaction terms show that the employment premium associated with secondary or higher schooling is erased by early marriage (AME = –0.051, p < 0.10) and further reduced by early childbirth (AME = –0.094, p < 0.01), while AMEs for women with basic education remain small and insignificant. The non-linear Fairlie decomposition finds that age and education differences fully account for the observed employment gaps, leaving virtually no unexplained remainder. This highlights the importance of delaying early transitions and bolstering girls’ education—especially in rural areas—to reduce Egypt’s gender employment disparity.

» Alkasasbeh, Y. (2025). Women’s agency in Jordan: The impact of marriage and motherhood moderated by education (ERF Working Paper No. 1776). Economic Research Forum. https://erf.org.eg/publications/womens-agency-in-jordan-the-impact-of-marriage-and-motherhood-moderated-by-education/

Abstract:

Marriage and motherhood both represent key milestones in commitment and family responsibilities. In this context, this paper explores how women's agency in Jordan is influenced by these roles, along with education level. It highlights three elements of instrumental agency: choice-making, financial independence, and mobility—along with intrinsic agency, which is assessed through attitudes toward domestic violence among married women. The sample consists of women between the ages of 15 and 59 from the 2010 and 2016 Jordan Labor Market Panel Surveys (JLMPS). Findings suggest that motherhood reduces women's likelihood of participating in household decision-making yet enhances their freedom of mobility and intrinsic agency. The change in the impact of motherhood on both decision-making and intrinsic agency is insignificant, with education acting as a moderating factor, all else equal. Marriage increases the probability of achieving greater financial independence but restricts mobility compared to single women under similar conditions. Education significantly amplifies the positive effects of marriage on financial autonomy but does not change the impact of marriage on the freedom of mobility.

» Alkasasbeh, Y. (2025). Bridging education and fertility: Unraveling the role of gender attitudes (ERF Working Paper No.1780). Economic Research Forum https://erf.org.eg/publications/bridging-education-and-fertility-unraveling-the-role-of-gender-attitudes/

Abstract:

In 2023, Jordan's fertility rate has decreased to 2.6 children per woman. This decline is linked to women achieving higher levels of education, which contributes to their empowerment. This study analyzes the number of births by estimating several linear regressions and mediation models to examine how women’s gender role attitudes influence the relationship between education and fertility. The data used comes from the Jordanian Labor Market Panel Surveys (JLMPS) conducted in 2010 and 2016. Women’s gender role attitudes were assessed using a 10-statement continuous scale reflecting their agreement with gender role statements. The findings indicate a strong connection between education and fertility rates. Specifically, an increase in years of education is significantly linked to lower fertility rates. Women who demonstrate intrinsic agency and hold egalitarian beliefs about gender typically have fewer children than those who adhere to unequal gender norms. Additionally, women with higher levels of education are more likely to possess egalitarian attitudes and beliefs regarding gender roles compared to those with lower educational attainment. However, women’s attitudes toward gender roles do not mediate the relationship between education and fertility. To further promote women’s empowerment, programs should focus on enhancing educational opportunities for women and encouraging more egalitarian views on gender roles.

» Alkasasbeh, Y. (2024). Inequality of Opportunity in Monthly Wages in the Jordanian Labor Market. The Economic Research Forum (ERF) Working Paper No. 1759

Abstract:

This paper quantifies the inequalities of opportunities in monthly wages in the Jordanian labor market, drawing on Roemer (1993)’s distinction between circumstances and other unobserved/unexplained variables (luck, endowed genetics, culture, native ability) which for convenience we call effort. I borrow the parametric approach developed by Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Menéndez (2007) to calculate the shares of “unfair” inequality and analyze the main drivers of inequality of opportunity for the entire population and gender/birth region subgroups, using the nationally representative Jordan labor market panel surveys for 2010 and 2016. Also

complementary analyses of inequality of opportunity was conducted; the stochastic dominance test and generalized lorenz curves Lefranc, Pistolesi, and Trannoy (2008), which allowed to visualize the magnitude of the inequality of opportunities. Inequality of opportunity shares are small and

decline in the second survey wave. Women and both north and south-born subgroups experience greater unfair inequality. The main drivers across the sample are parental education, father’s occupation, and employment sector. Stochastic dominance tests confirm advantages for individuals with publicly employed fathers, white-collar fathers, highly educated parents, and men.

Alkasasbeh, Y. (2025). Parsing pathways from chronic illness to self-rated health in Egypt: The role of mental well-being. Global Health Journal. Advance online publication. doi:10.1016/j.glohj.2025.11.006 

Objective: Chronic noncommunicable conditions are a major driver of poor health in low- and middle-income countries, yet the mental health pathways through which these illnesses shape perceived health remain under- examined. This study investigates whether recent mental well-being—measured using the World Health Organization Five-Item Well-Being Index (WHO-5)—mediates the association between chronic illness and self-rated health (SRH) among Egyptian adults aged 32–65.

Methods: This study uses nationally representative data from the 2023 Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (n = 23,044) and estimates survey-weighted Ordinary Least Squares models predicting SRH (1 = very good/excellent to 5 = very bad). The key independent variable is chronic illness status. Mediation analysis is conducted using the Sobel–Goodman method with 1000 bootstrap replicates. All models adjust for sociodem graphic covariates including age, sex, education, marital status, and regional residence.

Results: Chronic illness is associated with significantly worse SRH (β = 0.59, standard error [SE] = 0.02, P < 0.001). When mental well-being is added to the model, the chronic illness coefficient declines to 0.50 (SE = 0.02, P < 0.001), and WHO-5 is independently associated with better SRH (β = ‒0.22, SE = 0.01, P < 0.001). The indirect effect via WHO-5 is 0.08 (SE = 0.01, P < 0.001), indicating that 14.2% of the total association is

mediated through recent psychological well-being.

Conclusion: Although most of the self-rated health disadvantage linked to chronic illness flows through somatic and functional channels, mental well-being accounts for a meaningful share. Incorporating WHO-5 screening and stepped referral into chronic care could improve subjective health outcomes in Egypt. Mental health integration should be viewed as a critical component of equitable noncommunicable disease strategies.

From Roots to Rates: Gendered Inequality in Higher Education Opportunities in Egypt- Under Review

Abstract:

This paper examines gendered inequality of opportunity in tertiary education in Egypt using the 2023 Egypt Labor Market Survey (ELMPS). I restrict the sample to individuals aged 24–60 and categorize circumstances beyond personal control—number of siblings, parental education, place of birth, father’s occupation and sector—while controlling for age and age squared. A survey-weighted logistic regression generates individual access probabilities, which are then used to compute the D-index, penalty factor, and Human Opportunity Index (HOI). I further apply a Shapley decomposition to attribute total measured inequality to each circumstance. Results show that women have higher raw coverage of tertiary education (25.8%) than men (22.2%) but also face greater inequality (D-index 0.333 vs. 0.274), yielding an HOI of 17.2% for women and 16.1% for men. Shapley analysis reveals that father’s occupation and place of birth are the dominant drivers for men, whereas parental education—particularly father’s education and mother’s education—explains most of the inequality among women. These findings highlight that policy interventions aiming to improve higher education access in Egypt must address both overall coverage and its equitable distribution across social groups.

» Alkasasbeh, Y. (2024). Inequality of higher educational opportunity – the role of circumstances among the Jordanian people. Applied Economics, 1–17.

Abstract:

 This paper investigates the role of background circumstances in shaping individual opportunities in higher education in Jordan, for the whole population as well as for key subgroups based on gender and the geographical region of birth. I apply the Dissimilarity-Index de Barros et al., (2009), (2008), the Shapley decomposition Deutsch and Silber, (2008); Shorrocks, (2013) and the Human Opportunity index which was proposed by Barros, Vega, and Saavedra (2008). After implementing logistic models using both publicly available waves of the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey JLMPS (2010 and 2016). My findings suggest that higher education attainment and the mean years of completed education have expanded for the whole population, as well as for all subgroups, despite the low coverage rate in both waves. Unequal opportunities in higher education are somewhat moderate in Jordan and are mainly explained by parental education, father’s occupation, and sector of work, with much less impact from gender, number of siblings, and the region of birth.