The Cyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment Among Mature Students with Guido Matias Cortes
This paper examines how post-secondary education enrollment among adults aged 25-45 responds to local economic conditions. Using nationally-representative U.S. data spanning 1979-2024, we find that mature-student enrollment is countercyclical from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, particularly among women. These patterns are primarily observed at 2-year colleges, and mainly reflect students with partially completed degrees remaining enrolled. However, downturns also increase the likelihood of beginning a new degree among Hispanic men and White and Black women. Graduate enrollment rises for White women but falls for Hispanic men during downturns. Non-cohabiting individuals without children respond most strongly to adverse economic conditions.Â