Research
Working Papers
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Student Loans on Fertility and Social Mobility (under review at Quantitative Economics)
Abstract: Federal student loans relax borrowing constraints in college years but also increase indebtedness in early adulthood, a period when fertility and child investment decisions are also made. I use a lifecycle model with credit constraints, endogenous fertility, and human capital investment to evaluate the long-run effects of federal student loans. I estimate the model to match features of U.S. household survey data in the 2000s. I find that federal student loans reduce fertility rates, but increase college attendance rates and income and have no discernible effects on social mobility.
Paper Supplementary Appendix Slides Code
Media coverage: Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (May 2022); KARE 11 (Aug 2022)
Previously circulated under the title " Life-Cycle Effects of Australian Student Loans with Income-Contingent Repayments"
Abstract: This paper studies the effects of income-contingent repayment of student loans on individual life-cycle choices and the aggregate economy. We focus on the case of Australia, which has the world’s first national income-contingent repayment scheme. We develop a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model with education choice, earnings risks, borrowing constraints, and detailed student loan repayment. We estimate the model using individual-level longitudinal data. We apply the model to evaluate counter-factual repayment designs, including non-contingent and fixed-rate repayments. Our preliminary results show the current policy design outperforms alternatives in both educational attainment and aggregate welfare.