Publications
Publications
Is the Out-of-Town Buyer effect overemphasized? Evidence from news sentiment as an information proxy (With Sangwon Seo), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics(2026)
Abstract : This study reexamines the impact of out-of-town (OOT) buyers on housing price dynamics by examining whether news sentiment can act as a fundamental driver of these market movements. Using housing news headlines from South Korea, we construct a News Sentiment Index (NSI) via a fine-tuned KR-FinBERT model and incorporate it into a Bayesian VAR framework alongside OOT transaction data. Empirical results show that when NSI is included, OOT transactions no longer Granger-cause housing prices. Indeed, incorporating NSI leads to a substantial reduction in OOT’s price contribution, whereas NSI shocks exhibit a remarkable, immediate impact on price formation. Importantly, this informational influence is heterogeneous between OOT buyers and locals; NSI replaces a substantial share of the own explanatory power of OOT transactions and accounts for nearly half of the influence of OOT activity on local transactions, while having little effect on the own dynamics of local transactions. While the main analyses suggest that NSI may help alleviate informational frictions faced by geographically distant participants, the stale–novelty decomposition indicates that news also conveys genuinely new information, thereby generating more persistent effects on valuations.
Property rights and shadow economies: A global perspective (With Hoyong Jung), Economics Bulletin(2025) Link
Abstract : Many countries aim to reduce shadow economies due to the negative externalities they impose on society. This study examines the role of the property rights system and investigates how well-functioning property rights influence the underground economy from a multinational and multiperiod perspective. Employing two-way fixed effects and instrumental variable estimation, our findings confirm the prediction that the size of the shadow economy diminishes with the effectiveness of the property rights system. These results highlight the importance of establishing incentives for economic agents through the implementation of a robust private property system, which is essential for fostering both economic and social development
Working Papers
Administrative district reforms and land market dynamics: Evidence from South Korea (With Hoyong Jung) (R&R at Real Estate Economics)
Abstract : This study investigates the impact of administrative jurisdiction reforms on the land market by analyzing the 2023 integration of Gunwi County into Daegu Metropolitan City, South Korea. Employing a supply-and-demand framework and a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we disentangle the effects of jurisdictional reclassification from those of contemporaneous land use regulations. We find that land prices in Gunwi increased significantly—particularly in urban zones—while transaction volumes declined. These results suggest a supply-side contraction driven by heightened expectations of future development, underscoring the role of market-based anticipatory revaluation following administrative restructuring. This mechanism contrasts with prior literature that primarily emphasized changes in local public finance or demographic composition. Our findings demonstrate that administrative reconfiguration can reshape land market dynamics by influencing investor expectations, offering broader policy implications amid ongoing trends in administrative consolidation.
The Impact of the Comprehensive Real Estate Holding Tax on Asset Equity and the Rental Housing Market (With NamJoo Hong) (R&R at Journal of Housing Economics)
Abstract : This paper investigates whether a progressive property tax can meaningfully and instantly influence housing prices, focusing on the case of South Korea’s Comprehensive Real Estate Holding Tax (CREHT). The CREHT became more progressive through reforms in 2019 and 2021, and was subsequently relaxed in 2023. Based on the sequential difference-in-differences framework, we find consistent evidence that housing price disparities narrowed following the tax hikes and widened after the tax cuts. These results remain robust across different group specifications and alternative time windows. Additionally, the rental housing market over the same period shows that rental prices for high-end units responded to the changes in CREHT schemes, suggesting pass-through of the tax burden to tenants. Our findings imply that while a progressive property tax reduces wealth inequality among property owners, it may exacerbate inequality between landlords and tenants.
Human Capital Accumulation and Choice of Marriage : Role of Effort Choice in Marriage Premium Link to Draft Link to Slides
Abstract : This paper investigates how choice of attitude toward working and learning is related to the emergence of male's marriage premium. A Ben-Porath type human capital model incorporating marriage choice and effort specialization decision is considered as a benchmark model. In the model, an agent accumulates human capital and generates income by allocating the time endowment between working and learning, and decides whether to marry or not in each period. The distinguishing feature of the model is that one could choose either to concentrate on working or learning by choosing the effort level in each sector. Estimated based on Simulated Method of Moments, the model replicates the wage profiles and the proportion of married individuals in NLSY79. A counterfactual exercise on the timing of marriage reveals that the wage profiles of individuals show discrete jump at the period of marriage. The size of marriage premium is larger when the marriage happens early in the life cycle, and if the individuals possess average ability to learn. Conversely, a negligible size of marriage premium is observed if marriage happens late, especially for the individuals with high ability. In the long run, the anticipation of marriage increases the peak of the wage profile, especially when marriage is postponed.
Implications of Lump Sum Deposit Rental Agreements on Savings, Housing Demand, and Welfare (Job Market Paper) Link to Draft
Abstract : This paper estimates a life-cycle model of housing contract choices to analyze the role of the Jeonse contract in the Korean housing market. Jeonse is a unique lump-sum deposit rental contract that requires a large deposit upfront instead of recurring monthly payments, with the full deposit returned at the end of the contract. The benchmark model which includes three housing contract options—ownership, Jeonse, and rent—is compared to a counterfactual scenario in which the Jeonse option is excluded from the market. Assuming constant housing market prices regardless of demand, the counterfactual market exhibits a notable decline in ownership rates across the life cycle, with a 12-percentage-point drop at the peak of the ownership profiles. The core findings remain qualitatively consistent even when an additional housing option, premium rent, is introduced, which is equivalent in cost and quality to Jeonse units. This suggests that the proportion of housing demand attributed to the Jeonse contract stems not from model-specific utility specifications but rather from the intrinsic nature of the Jeonse agreement in encouraging tenants to accumulate more savings. The welfare analysis indicates that households with lower incomes demonstrate a limited preference for Jeonse contracts, which provides insight into why lump-sum deposit contracts are absent in housing markets outside of Korea.
Work in Progress
Human Capital Accumulation, Labor Supply, and Life Expectancy