Yifei Zhang
Postdoctoral Research Scholar
Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics
North Carolina State University
Email: yzhan242@ncsu.edu
"Substitutability of U.S. and Canadian Softwood Lumber: A Threshold Modeling Approach," with Barry Goodwin, Accepted at Forest Policy and Economics [Link]
An important aspect of the U.S.-Canada Softwood Lumber Trade Dispute is the substitutability of lumber products between the two countries. Canadian lumber imports are detrimental to the U.S. industry only when the products are substitutes. In such a scenario, the imposition of trade restrictions would have a significant influence on the domestic market. Motivated by this consideration, we investigate dynamic relationships between prices for Spruce-Pine-Fir, a softwood species primarily imported from Canada, and Southern Yellow Pine, one of the most popular softwood species domestically produced in the U.S. We apply threshold models in an evaluation of the degree of substitutability. Our empirical findings indicate that within the +/-$3.4 price differential band, the two lumber products demonstrate a higher degree of substitutability.
"Medium-Term Economic Impacts of Cover Crop Adoption in Maryland," with Yuyuan Che, Roderick Rejesus, Michel Cavigelli, Kathryn White, Serkan Aglasan, Lynn Knight, Curt Dell, David Hollinger, Erin Lane, and Steven Mirsky, Accepted at Soil Security [Link]
This study investigates the medium-term (5-7 years) economic impact of cover crop adoption using plot-level data from field experiments in the state of Maryland. Our results show that cover crops do not have a statistically significant effect on crop yield, fertilizer costs, or pesticide costs, but we find that cover crop use statistically increases field operation and seed expenses. As a result, the private net return from cover crop adoption in the medium term is generally negative based on the Maryland field trial data used in the analysis. This empirical finding suggests that public support through incentive payments may help further incentivize cover crop adoption in the US, which can then provide environmental and ecosystem services that is of benefit to the general public.
"Long-term Economic Impacts of No-Till Adoption in the U.S. Midwest" (with Roderick Rejesus)
The practice of no-till farming has gained attention in sustainable agriculture due to its potential to improve soil health, deliver environmental benefits, and increase farmer’s profits. Despite these advantages, the adoption rate of no-till farming in the United States remained relatively low at approximately 27.5\% in 2022, with slow growth in the past decade. The primary factor contributing to this low adoption rate is the uncertainty surrounding the economic returns associated with no-till practices. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the long-term (over 30 years) costs and benefits of no-till adoption utilizing plot-level data from Ohio and Michigan. Our empirical findings show that no-till farming leads to positive net economic returns compared to conventional tillage, primarily due to lower farm operation costs, although results on changes in crop yields are mixed. Overall, this study suggests that no-till farming has great potential to offer a significant positive impact on farmers' profitability.
"Impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. Manufactured Wood Industry: Evidence from Softwood Lumber and Structural Panels" (with Barry Goodwin)
This paper assesses the large price swings in manufactured wood products during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the relationships between wood product prices and various macroeconomic variables, utilizing vector autoregressive (VAR) models and vector error correction (VEC) models. We find that disruptions in the labor market and housing sector contributed significantly to changes in price volatility.
"An Updated Meta-Analysis on Winter Cover Crop's Impact on Corn Yield" (with Roderick Rejesus)
"Characterizing Systemic Risks Using Copulas: Evidence from the U.S. Crop Insurance Market" (with Barry Goodwin)
"Assessing the Risk Resilience Impact of Soil Organic Carbon" (with Roderick Rejesus, Serkan Aglasan)