Yevhenii Skok - Columns & Podcast

Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, Oliver de Groot and I have been writing about how the invasion has impacted macro-financial stability in Ukraine and how Ukraine has responded to the crisis

Columns

Foreign Exchange Regimes in Normal Times and Times of War: Insights from Ukraine (with Oliver de Groot), VoxUkraine Column 6 august 2025 year

In February 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) shifted from a floating to a fixed exchange rate regime. Eighteen months later, as the war’s intensity eased, it returned to a float. Was this state-contingent policy optimal? Or should the NBU have allowed Hryvnia to depreciate to absorb the war shock? A new study shows that while exchange rate flexibility works for small shocks, large shocks — like an invasion — make depreciation suboptimal, justifying the NBU’s choice.

War in Ukraine: Ukraine’s monetary-financial vulnerabilities (with Oliver de Groot), VoxEU Column 15 November 2022

The National Bank of Ukraine reacted decisively to Russia’s invasion, imposing capital controls and a fixed exchange rate regime. However, the country’s economy remains fragile and the battle to maintain monetary and financial stability continues. This column explores the growing risk of uncontrolled inflation in the country, what is causing it, and how it can be stopped. The unsatiated demand for foreign currency is putting pressure on the fixed exchange rate. In the longer term, the war has significantly increased the government budget deficit, raising concerns of monetary financing. Whether the war ends soon or not, the transition back to normality and stability is fraught with uncertainty.

War in Ukraine: Ukraine’s monetary-financial vulnerabilities (with Oliver de Groot), VoxEU Column 15 November 2022

The economic commentary on the Russian invasion of Ukraine has largely focused on the costs of economic sanctions for Russia (Garicano 2022) and the impacts on the global economy of rising oil and gas prices (Vaitilingam 2022). Less visible has been the economic impact on Ukraine and the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the international financial community to maintain liquidity and financial stability in the country. In this column, we fill this gap by exploring the impact of the war from a Ukrainian monetary economics perspective. We provide a brief monetary history of Ukraine, document the policy actions of the past few weeks, and explore the challenges ahead.

Podcast

Will Ukraine’s economy survive the war?, VoxEU Podcast 25 Mar 2022

Yevhenii Skok interviewed by Tim Phillips 25 Mar 2022

Are the Ukrainian economy and financial system holding up to Russia's bombardment? Yevhenii Skok tells Tim Phillips whether emergency policies have been able to maintain liquidity and financial stability, how much damage has been done to Ukraine's productive capacity, and what a post-war financial rebuild would look like.

Chapter

Ensuring monetary-financial stability for successful recovery (with Oliver de Groot), in "Ukraine's Road to Recovery", July 2023, edited by Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Serhiy Stepanchuk

This chapter explores the impact of the war from a Ukrainian monetary economics perspective. First, we provide a brief monetary history of Ukraine. Second, we document the NBU’s immediate policy response and subsequent policy regime to maintain monetary and financial stability. Third, we provide a road map (and lay out the potential risks) for the NBU in supporting the country’s economic recovery and reconstruction, particularly the need to normalise its policies and ensure both internal and external balance.