Research
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" - George E. P. Box
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" - George E. P. Box
"Sovereign Debt Disclosure", Journal of International Economics, 2025, Vol 157, with Bulent Guler and Temel Taskin, Click here to read the paper.
"Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness", Journal of Monetary Economics, 2025, Vol 153, with Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch, Click here to read the paper.
"Government Borrowing and Crowding Out", American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2024, 16(1), 286-321, with Ruiz Sanchez Maria Alejandra, Restrepo Tamayo Sara and Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas. Click here to read the paper.
"Optimal GDP-indexed Bonds", Review of Economic Dynamics, 2023, Vol 51, 747-777, Click here to read the paper.
"Hidden debt", AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2022, 112: 536 - 540, with Bulent Guler and Temel Taskin, Click here to read the paper.
"Liquidity Crises, Liquidity Lines and Sovereign Risk", Journal of Development Economics, 2022, Vol 154, Click here to read the paper.
"Inflation-default trade-off without a nominal anchor: The case of Greece", Review of Economic Dynamics, 2021, Vol 39, 55-78, with Enes Sunel. Click here to read the paper.
"Evaluating wildlife exposure: Using wellbeing data to estimate and value the impacts of wildfire", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2021, Volume 191, 782-798, with D. W. Johnston, M. H. Rahman, M.A. Ulubaşoğlu. Click here to read the paper.
"The role of risk aversion in a sovereign default model of polarization and political instability", Review of Economic Dynamics, 2020, Vol 35, 123-132, with Enes Sunel. Click here to read the paper.
"Heterogeneous Treatment Under Regression Discontinuity Design: Application to Female High School Enrollment", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2019, Vol 81:4, 744-767, with Mrittika Shamsuddin. Click here to read the paper.
"The Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy", International Journal of Central Banking, 2018, Vol 14:1, 159-199, with Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas. Click here to read the paper.
"Non-Defaultable Debt and Sovereign Risk", Journal of International Economics, 2017, Vol 105, 217-229, with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez. Click here to read the paper.
"Asset Backed Contracts and Sovereign Risk", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2016, Vol 132, 237-252. Click here to read the paper.
"Debt Relief Without Public Spending: Corporate Debt Moratoria and Macroeconomics", joint with Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas and Jose Villegas. Click here to read the paper.
"Consumer Debt Moratoria", joint with Bulent Guler, Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas and Jose Villegas Click here to read the paper.
"Default or Depreciate", R&R at International Economic Review, with Enes Sunel. Click here to read the paper.
"Price Frictions in Credit Markets: Evidence from Belgium's 2020 Credit Guarantee Scheme", joint with Jose Villegas. Click here to read the paper.
"Sovereign Debt and Grace Periods", joint with Yasin Mimir and Jose Villegas. Click here to read the paper.
"Mortgage Moratoria as Fiscal-free Stimulus: Evidence from Belgium", joint with Bulent Guler, Julia Jesionek, Koen Schoors and Milan
"Black-box Optimizers vs Taste Shocks: An application to default models". Click here to read the paper.
"Sovereign Default and Cheap Talk" Click here to read the paper.
"International Reserves, Swap Lines, Default and Welfare"
"Collective Action Clauses in Sovereign Debt Markets: a Quantitative Analysis " with Juan Carlos Hatchondo
"International Reserves, Currency Composition of Debt and Sovereign Default"