Selected Publications

* as first/cofirst author, 📧 corresponding author 

Artificial Intelligence

• Xingcheng Xu. “The Policy Cliff: A Theoretical Analysis of Reward-Policy Maps in Large Language Models.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.20150, 2025.
  [ArXiv Version] [PDF]

• Shanghai AI Lab (2025). “SafeWork-R1: Coevolving Safety and Intelligence under the AI-45 Law.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.18576, 2025.
  [ArXiv Version] [PDF]

• Xingcheng Xu*, Zibo Zhao, Haipeng Zhang, and Yanqing Yang. “Principled Understanding of Generalization for Generative Transformer Models in Arithmetic Reasoning Tasks.” The 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL), (Main, Volume 1: Long Papers), 4721-4747, 2025. (CCF A)
  [Published Version] [PDF] [GitHub Code] [Slides] [Poster]

• Xingcheng Xu*, Zihao Pan, Haipeng Zhang, and Yanqing Yang. “It Ain't That Bad: Understanding the Mysterious Performance Drop in OOD Generalization for Generative Transformer Models.” The 33rd International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI), 6578-6586, 2024. (CCF A)
  [Published Version] [PDF] [GitHub Code] [Slides] [Poster]

AI × Social Science 

• Haixing Gong, Hui Zou, Xingzhou Liang, Shiyuan Meng, Pinlong Cai, Xingcheng Xu, Jingjing Qu. “A Global Dataset Mapping the AI Innovation from Academic Research to Industrial Patents.” Scientific Data, 12, 1261, 2025.
  [Journal Version] [PDF]

• Qin Chen, Jinfeng Ge, Huaqing Xie, Xingcheng Xu*📧 , Yanqing Yang. “Large Language Models at Work in China’s Labor Market.” China Economic Review (CER), Volume 92, 102413, 2025.
  [Journal Version] [PDF] [Appendix] 

• Zi Wang, Xingcheng Xu*, Yanqing Yang, Xiaodong Zhu. “Optimal Trade and Industrial Policies in the Global Economy: A Deep Learning Framework.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.17731, 2024.
  [ArXiv Version] [PDF]

• Yanqing Yang, Xingcheng Xu, Jinfeng Ge, Yan Xu. “Machine Learning for Economic Forecasting: An Application to China’s GDP Growth.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.03595, 2024.
  [ArXiv Version] [PDF]

Probability Theory

• Zhongmin Qian, and Xingcheng Xu*📧. “Rough Path Renormalization from Stratonovich to Itô for Fractional Brownian Motion.”  Acta Mathematica Sinica, Eng. Ser. (AMSE), (2025). Forthcoming.
  [ArXiv Version] [PDF] 

• Thomas Cass, Terry Lyons, and Xingcheng Xu*. “Weighted Signature Kernels.” Annals of Applied Probability (AAP), Vol. 34, No. 1A, (2024), 585-626. (Early named as “General Signature Kernels”)
  [Journal Version] [PDF] [GitHub Code]

• Zhongmin Qian, and Xingcheng Xu*📧. “Lévy Area Analysis and Parameter Estimation for fOU Processes via Non-Geometric Rough Path Theory.”  Acta Mathematica Sci (ActaMS), Vol. 44, (2024), 1609-1638.
  [Journal Version] [PDF]

• Zhongmin Qian, and Xingcheng Xu*📧. “Probability Bounds for Reflecting Diffusion Processes.”  Statistics and Probability Letters (SPL), Vol 199, (2023), 109855.
  [Journal Version] [PDF]

• Zengjing Chen, Shuhui Liu, Zhongmin Qian, and Xingcheng Xu*. “Explicit solutions for a class of nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations and their nodal sets.” Probability, Uncertainty and Quantitative Risk (PUQR), Vol. 7, No. 4, (2022), 283-300.
  [Journal Version] [PDF]

• Renjie Feng, Xingcheng Xu📧, and Robert J. Adler. “Critical radius and supremum of random spherical harmonics (II).” Electronic Communications in Probability (ECP), 23 (2018): 1-11. DOI: 10.1214/18-ECP156.
  [Journal Version] [PDF]

Reports

• Xiaohui Cui, Di Guo, Zhao Jin, Chunjie Lin, Rong Xiao, Xingcheng Xu, Chenggang Xu, Yanqing Yang. “China Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2022“, (2022). (English Version: ~200 Pages)
  崔晓晖、郭迪、金钊、林纯洁、肖蓉、徐兴成、许成钢 、杨燕青：中国人工智能指数报告2022，2022。 (中文版：~200页)
  [English Version] [Chinese Version]

• Jian An, Daixi Chen, Long Chen, Yuanfang Li, Wei Liu, Jiamin Meng, Michael Spence, Qidi Wang, Xingcheng Xu, and Kaiwen Zheng. “Measuring and Tracking the Global Pandemic Economy.” Luohan Academy Report (2020).
  [LHA Report] [PDF]