MLB Strategies

Hit Props Builders

Easily my most favorite type of bet to place for MLB season! We found last season that consistently doing 2-3 leg hit prop builders was worth while. The key with the MLB is it is truly a consistency type of sport. Will a player randomly go 0-5? Yes. But we are looking for players who show throughout the season they can consistently get a hit in at least 80% of their past 10-20 games.

Taking the chart above from the MLB Bot, right away what sticks out to me are props with value, that have odds between -180 and -230 and a solid L10 Trends (far right column). Given above, I would strongly consider taking Bryson Stott & Andres Gimenez in a 2 leg builder. At prices of -190 and -185, the final odds will be around +135. That is solid and their L10 trends are both great as well!

If you wish to use the Hitters Dashboard, here is an example for you. Let's take the top two props, Bryan Reynolds and Bryson Stott. Let's say each of their odds were -210 and -200, respectively. They would both fit the "1+ Hit Odds Needed" criteria since -210 is better value than -289 and -200 is better value than -200. Pairing these two for a builder would be an awesome choice as both have a 100% Hit Trend too. The final odds for this one end up around +120.

Key Note: If you want, you can keep going up to as many legs as you want with this strategy. But remember, the more legs, the more variance between players as all it takes is for one guy to have an off day to ruin it all.

H+R+R Props

I am sure you are now aware of HRR props. Hits + Runs + RBIs. These props are offered mainly on Draftkings as most books, like FanDuel, do not offer them as an option.

These are arguably the best market for MLB props and where I have found solid success in this early season. The reason? Correlation.

You see, having the ability to have 3 different markets into one prop means a lot. You no longer have to worry about a player scoring 1+ Run or just 1+ RBI. The catch? Well these props lines are usually 1.5.

But, that is actually not a catch at all. You see because of correlation, the markets are tied together. Think of it like this, if someone gets a hit, there is also a chance that hit is an RBI, or even multiple RBIs. Also, there is a chance that hit later turns into a run. Same can be said if you flip the scenarios. If a player scores a run, there is a good chance they also recorded a hit, as you can only get on base from basically a walk or hit.

I won't go too much into detail, but the correlation factor in this market is huge and needs to be looked at. We aren't "outsmarting" the sportsbooks with this idea, we are just realizing the power of correlation. With MLB, this affect hits even harder because players get 3-5 ABs per game. So they don't even need to record a hit+run or hit+rbi in one at bat.

Anyway, realize the power this market can offer and look into it! The MLB Bot tends to have 5-7 props with value in this market daily!

Using Underdog & Prize Picks for Player Hitting Props

What's great about Prize Picks & Underdog is that their sportsbooks do not provide odds for each player. Now, that means there are less players than a FanDuel or Draftkings, but it means there can be awesome value found on their platform. Take the example found below:

As seen above, this is exactly why I check Underdog before I place any projections with value on FanDuel. You have the same exact 3-leg parlay but FanDuel is only going to return $349.32 while Underdog will return $600. This difference is HUGE. Even if this difference was $20, I would do it on Underdog. The importance of line shopping, something you can also do using our MLB Bot and its Prop Command.

RBI & Run Unders

Something I will be monitoring throughout the season is the effect of unders when it comes to the RBI & Run markets. The reason for this is because both these categories are reliant on more than just the player himself.

For RBIs, yes the player can hit a home run, but most players are not consistent home run hitters at all. So, in order to get an RBI, most of the time it consists of a player in scoring position (2nd or 3rd base), something that does not happen every at bat or even every other at bat, depending on the player. Then, the player must either get a hit or a sacrifice fly to record that RBI. A lot of RBI Unders (not offered on FanDuel) are often times around between the -200 range. Taking two of these, backed by a trend, could be a solid move.

For Runs, the player also has no control, except for a home run. With Run props, it is all about the player and oftentimes where he sits in the lineup and who is behind him. This is where the run trend is vital. The run trend can give a quick outlook at the situation a player finds him in. Has a 20% 1+ Run trend in the L10? Chances are the player is not slotted ideally in his team to be a run scoring threat. These props get even better because most of the run props with value are around +100, meaning straights here are awesome.

Looking at the dataframe above, you can see that some of these guys trends are low, the projection is low, but the odds are really solid. Even -120 for a guy with a 30% trend and a low projection is solid value.

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