Research

Working Paper: 

Fiscal Multiplier in Bolivia: Do the Nationalization Process and the Unconventional Monetary Policy matter? 

This paper studies the fiscal multiplier in Bolivia considering key characteristics of the country and compares the results with common patterns shared with countries in the Latin American region regarding fiscal policy in times of crisis and unconventional monetary policy. This study finds that a positive shock to government spending increases output and its response is higher in the short term, with an impact multiplier of 0.74. This value is robust when the unconventional monetary policy is added, reaching a value of 0.73. Incorporating the nationalization in the analysis, the impact multiplier presents a higher value during the Pre-nationalization (1990-2005) than Post-nationalization (2006-2019), which implies a higher impact multiplier during the crisis period. These results suggest that the impact multiplier is non-linear between expansion and recession periods. A comparative analysis with Latin American countries also confirms that fiscal multipliers are higher in the short term and in the crisis period.

Work in Progress: 

Demographic Transition, Aggregate Productivity Growth Slowdown, and Structural Change (with Vahagn Jerbashian)

We derive an OLG model to study the effect of demographic transition and aggregate productivity growth slowdown on structural changes in employment in agriculture in European countries. The demographic transition in the model is associated with a significant fall in mortality probabilities, especially in old age, a fall in population growth, and a fall in labor productivity. Overall, together with the productivity growth slowdown, it implies an increase in the savings rate and a fall in the interest rate. The higher savings and investments directly affect the employment share in agriculture because the agricultural sector has higher capital intensity and capital-labor substitutability than the rest of the economy. We show that the demographic transition alone can account for about 15 percent of the observed fall in agricultural employment in the 1970-2020 period. Together with the TFP growth slowdown, it can account for about 35 percent of the observed fall in agricultural employment. 

Job Market Paper: 

Transport and Structural Change

This paper quantifies the impact of transportation, both railway and road, on natural resource-based exports in Latin American countries during the late 19th and 20th centuries. The research makes a significant contribution by delving into the historical impact of rail and road networks on Latin America’s mining and agricultural sectors, while exploring broader issues such as the role of transportation in structural changes within an open economy. It also sheds light on the integration of massive natural resource, agricultural and mineral exports, unique to Latin American countries, within the transportation literature. Furthermore, the study advances the field by considering an open economy within a model of structural change and transport dynamics. It extends its analysis temporally from 1880 to 2020, providing information on the lasting effects of transportation on structural change over time.  To do the analysis, transport  is introduced into a neoclassical general equilibrium growth model.